2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

[Ralph Baer]

The season won't officially start until 6/1/15, but there is something off the Florida coast with a 60% of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

At least it's on the other coast from where my place is. Don't scare me like that next time

Not that I'd expect it to be anything more than possibly a strong storm if it does develop into anything.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

At least it's on the other coast from where my place is. Don't scare me like that next time

Not that I'd expect it to be anything more than possibly a strong storm if it does develop into anything.

It looks like it is more likely to affect me than you.

[RaceBoarder]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

South Carolina has storm watches posted....

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

South Carolina has storm watches posted....

It's TS Ana.

[Ralph Baer]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

The season officially begins today. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[hockeyplayer1015]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Disturbance off the Yucatan. Models showing a Texas coast path, with a 50/50 chance it will become a tropical storm by then.

Note: the Texas coast still hasn't exactly dried out from the flooding a couple weeks ago. Still quite elevated rivers (namely Colorado/Brazos/and the greater Houston area, as those are the ones that impact my industry the most).

Also note: I'll be in that general area in probably 4-5 days or so. Yippee!!

[ScottK]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Disturbance off the Yucatan. Models showing a Texas coast path, with a 50/50 chance it will become a tropical storm by then.

Note: the Texas coast still hasn't exactly dried out from the flooding a couple weeks ago. Still quite elevated rivers (namely Colorado/Brazos/and the greater Houston area, as those are the ones that impact my industry the most).

Also note: I'll be in that general area in probably 4-5 days or so. Yippee!!

50/50 chance it'll be a Tropical Depression. Odds of it making it to Tropical Storm strength are lower.

[hockeyplayer1015]

50/50 chance it'll be a Tropical Depression. Odds of it making it to Tropical Storm strength are lower.

Will likely be Tropical Storm Bill by this evening. Just needs to become better defined to become a tropical cyclone. Hurricane hunter has already found sustained TS strength winds on its trip this morning.

[ScottK]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Will likely be Tropical Storm Bill by this evening. Just needs to become better defined to become a tropical cyclone. Hurricane hunter has already found sustained TS strength winds on its trip this morning.

It also found that it doesn't have a closed circulation. The tropical storm force winds were confined to one side of the storm. While it MAY become Tropical Storm Bill before it moves inland, that doesn't really change anything. The main threat is heavy rain which will result in widespread flooding in an area that does not need it.

[hockeyplayer1015]

It also found that it doesn't have a closed circulation. The tropical storm force winds were confined to one side of the storm. While it MAY become Tropical Storm Bill before it moves inland, that doesn't really change anything. The main threat is heavy rain which will result in widespread flooding in an area that does not need it.

So, pretty much what I've typed, just with more words/verbiage.

Sorry, I equate 70-80% (per NOAA/NWS publications) with "likely" instead of "may".

[ScottK]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

So, pretty much what I've typed, just with more words/verbiage.

Sorry, I equate 70-80% (per NOAA/NWS publications) with "likely" instead of "may".

No, there's a huge difference between "it will likely become a tropical storm", and "it doesn't have a closed circulation".

NHC had a storm in the Eastern Pacific 2 weeks ago that had a "70% chance of developing" and never did.

You also completely missed my point that whether it has a name or not makes absolutely no difference to the fact that it will bring a lot of rain to Texas.

[ScottK]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

According to their own disucssion, NHC isn't sure it has a closed circulation yet, but they named it anyways - Tropical Storm Bill.

[hockeyplayer1015]

According to their own disucssion, NHC isn't sure it has a closed circulation yet, but they named it anyways - Tropical Storm Bill.

Probably for the best. While some people can recognize the dangers this presents, between additional rainfall and storm surge (tides along the Texas coast are currently already increased, could get to 4+ feet above publicized tide predictions), we all know that a lot of people would shrug off an unnamed system.

[Kepler]

Re: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Fellow Mid-Atlantians, be careful out there today.

Cities from Pittsburgh to Philly and D.C. to New York will see the risk for strong thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which could produce damaging winds and even a few tornadoes.

According to the Storm Prediction Center, an enhanced risk for severe weather—a three on a scale from zero to five—exists across much of southeastern Pennsylvania and northern Maryland in anticipation for widespread severe weather this afternoon and evening. A wider slight risk (two out of five) radiates out from there, encompassing the entire D.C. metro area and locations west through West Virginia, east into the Newark area, and north up through Scranton.

We can’t ignore the risk anywhere, but if you live in or around places like Philadelphia, Allentown, Baltimore, Wilmington (DE), or Trenton, I’d keep a really close eye on the radar and listen up for watches and warnings this evening.