The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

[Numbers]

They obviously have some clue about autoqualifiers or Robert Morris wouldn't have a 36% probability of being 16th with the other highest probability for #16 are all in the AHA with Bentley at 18%, Mercyhurst at 12%.

The B1G schools that likely need to win their tournament to get in (PSU/MSU) both have relatively high probabilities of being a 15th PSU - 15%, MSU - 9% so it sure seems like they understand that aspect of things.

Point taken. And, in all honesty, the discrepancy with these guys was worse before the PWR was redefined to eliminate the TUC.

I still want Jim Dahl or Reilly Hamilton

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Point taken. And, in all honesty, the discrepancy with these guys was worse before the PWR was redefined to eliminate the TUC.

I still want Jim Dahl or Reilly Hamilton

Given who has a shot, it's a fairly safe bet you're not going to be getting one of those.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Point taken. And, in all honesty, the discrepancy with these guys was worse before the PWR was redefined to eliminate the TUC.

I still want Jim Dahl or Reilly Hamilton

cant argue there, the stuff Jim Dahl produces is great...I think playoffstatus would be fine with how they do things if they used their own ranking system to help determine future outcomes but then ranked teams on their probability page by the existing pairwise...

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

FS23 why do you label the conference leaders as AQ when that won't be determined until after the Playoffs? Perhaps I'm picking nits.

A place holder I'm assuming for the leagues that may not qualify a team in the top 16 (Atlantic/Big ten)

Pretty much what mcfarljd said. Each conference gets an autobid. In order to account for that with the current rankings, I just take the team with the top winning % in the conference and assign them the autobid. Obviously, that likely will not be the case when all is said and done. I think this year will be similar to last year in that you probably need to be in the top 11 to be "safe" going into the last day or two of conference championship weekend. There is a strong likelihood that 3-4 of the actual autobids will come from outside the top 16 of the Pairwise. I wouldn't be shocked if we had 5 teams from outside the top 16 capture autobids. Of course, I wouldn't be shocked either if we had only 1 or 2 autobids come from outside the top 16.

[manurespreader]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Pretty much what mcfarljd said. Each conference gets an autobid. In order to account for that with the current rankings, I just take the team with the top winning % in the conference and assign them the autobid. Obviously, that likely will not be the case when all is said and done. I think this year will be similar to last year in that you probably need to be in the top 11 to be "safe" going into the last day or two of conference championship weekend. There is a strong likelihood that 3-4 of the actual autobids will come from outside the top 16 of the Pairwise. I wouldn't be shocked if we had 5 teams from outside the top 16 capture autobids. Of course, I wouldn't be shocked either if we had only 1 or 2 autobids come from outside the top 16.

I don't think it will be 4 or 5 but I think the chances are really good that you get at least 2. I don't think St Cloud will be in the top 15 once all is said and done so I think they are a good candidate, along with St Lawrence, Bemidji, and maybe Canisius. I would also say it's been very interesting watching things unfold.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I don't think it will be 4 or 5 but I think the chances are really good that you get at least 2. I don't think St Cloud will be in the top 15 once all is said and done so I think they are a good candidate, along with St Lawrence, Bemidji, and maybe Canisius. I would also say it's been very interesting watching things unfold.

There are possibilities in pretty much every league.

WCHA: BSU, NMU, maybe FSU getting hot at the right time
ECAC: Colgate, St. Lawrence, its doubtful that Harvard/Yale wouldn't be top 12 if they won the ECAC title...
Big 10: Penn State, Michigan State, its doubtful Michigan wouldn't be top 12 if they won the B1G
Hockey East: It would have to be a team like Northeastern or Merrimack on a roll to have it not be a top 12 team
NCHC: I think its doubtful that WMU could pull it off and beyond that everyone else is likely to be top 12 if they win the AQ
AHA: No matter who wins this, they're pretty much guaranteed to be outside of the top 12.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

There are possibilities in pretty much every league.

WCHA: BSU, NMU, maybe FSU getting hot at the right time
ECAC: Colgate, St. Lawrence, its doubtful that Harvard/Yale wouldn't be top 12 if they won the ECAC title...
Big 10: Penn State, Michigan State, its doubtful Michigan wouldn't be top 12 if they won the B1G
Hockey East: It would have to be a team like Northeastern or Merrimack on a roll to have it not be a top 12 team
NCHC: I think its doubtful that WMU could pull it off and beyond that everyone else is likely to be top 12 if they win the AQ
AHA: No matter who wins this, they're pretty much guaranteed to be outside of the top 12.

From most likely to least:

AHA: As you mentioned, whoever wins the conference tournament will almost assuredly be from outside the top 12. I suppose there is some miniscule probability that the right set of results allow Robert Morris to sneak in there, but I just don't see that happening. My guess on chance of AHA autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 99.99%

Big Ten: The conference has been poor all year long, so it wouldn't surprise me much if whoever won the league tournament title would be sitting outside the top 12. I don't know if Michigan would be a top 12 team if they won the tournament...but it is possible. Minnesota is the only team inside the top 12 at the moment from the conference, and I just don't have a whole lot of faith that they can win 2 games in a row in Michigan...especially if they had to knock off both Michigan State and Michigan. My guess on chance of Big Ten autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 75%

ECAC: Only Quinnipiac is in the top 12 at the moment, and just barely so. Yale would likely move up into the top 12 with winning the ECAC Tournament, but Harvard might not. It would be tight. As you mentioned, Colgate and St. Lawrence are both good possibilities of winning the tournament. However, they would also have an opportunity to jump up into the top 12 if they did so. My guess on chance of ECAC autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 40%

WCHA: Minnesota State and Michigan Tech are obviously the top of the league, and if Bowling Green were to make that run (especially if they did so dispatching Mankato and Tech) they would finish in the top 12. As you discussed, that leaves Bemidji State and Northern Michigan. I think Bemidji State has a decent chance of pulling such a feat. I haven't seen much from Northern Michigan to truly know what their odds are, so my number here might be a bit off. My guess on chance of WCHA autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 25%

Hockey East: I think Notre Dame has a shot of getting on a roll and winning the league title. I think Northeastern would probably vault themselves up into the top 12 if they won the Hockey East Tournament...although that likely depends on how they fare before the tournament. I just don't see Merrimack having much of a shot, along with anyone else from the bottom of the league. My guess on chance of Hockey East autobid stealing a spot from the top 16: 10%

NCHC: I think Western would probably be in the top 12 if they managed to run the table in the NCHC Tournament...same with St. Cloud. That leaves only Colorado College, and while they could cause whoever finishes first in the conference some fits, I don't see them winning 4 straight when they've only managed to win 1 conference game all season. My guess on chance NCHC autobid stealing a spot from top 16: 5%

Maybe I shouldn't have said "strong likelihood" that there would be 3-4 autobids coming from outside the top 16. The better language would be a "strong possibility."

Obviously, we'll know a whole lot more in about two weeks as to how those percentages hold up (or likely change).

[vizoroo]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Autobid--AHA + Big10 would not surprise
ECAC--St.Lawrence is my longshot

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I'd have to lower the odds for a WCHA team stealing an autobid. As noted, BGSU probably gets in the top 12 anyway with a win, so if you're saying 25% odds of someone stealing a bid, you're saying you like a #4 seed's chances as much as you do the #1, #2, or #3 seed's chances.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

I'd have to lower the odds for a WCHA team stealing an autobid. As noted, BGSU probably gets in the top 12 anyway with a win, so if you're saying 25% odds of someone stealing a bid, you're saying you like a #4 seed's chances as much as you do the #1, #2, or #3 seed's chances.

Well, the odds of #4-8 = 25%. Also, you have to factor in a scenario where Bowling Green falls flat on their face the next two weekends and wins the Final Five while still below the Top 16. I put that all together at 25%.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Boston C

Providence
#3 Duluth vs Lowell
Omaha vs Providence

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Minnesota
Michigan Tech vs Bowling Green

Manchester
#2 Mankato vs St Cloud
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

[Patman]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Boston C

Providence
#3 Duluth vs Lowell
Omaha vs Providence

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Minnesota
Michigan Tech vs Bowling Green

Manchester
#2 Mankato vs St Cloud
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

in a heartbeat... I can take the train, get a hotel right there, keep everything cheap... not against driving per se. I think I'm out for most other options and I may even skip for Manchester... just don't feel so good about my resources.

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Fargo
#1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Boston C

Providence
#3 Duluth vs Lowell
Omaha vs Providence

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Minnesota
Michigan Tech vs Bowling Green

Manchester
#2 Mankato vs St Cloud
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

uhm no, MTU vs BGSU can't happen

[Priceless]

uhm no, MTU vs BGSU can't happen

Dammit.

ETA: swap BC and Bowling Green

[Spartanforlife4]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Also, Michigan is the B10 bid now due to tiebreaker/have a game in hand.