The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

[unofan]

So next week is Götterdämmerung?

Waiting to hear if there will be more this week - I would expect yes with 7 to go, especially the five big ones still out there.

[unofan]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

So we can presume the following based on what's left: Kennedy is writing the fair housing act case, Scalia has the clean air act case, and between RBG, Roberts, and Kennedy, two of them will cover the ACA and AZ redistricting cases.

I would presume Kennedy is writing the gay marriage case, too, but that's based on his history writing the major gay rights cases and not on the current year's stats.

[unofan]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

There will be decisions Thursday.

[Kepler]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

So we can presume the following based on what's left: Kennedy is writing the fair housing act case, Scalia has the clean air act case, and between RBG, Roberts, and Kennedy, two of them will cover the ACA and AZ redistricting cases.

I would presume Kennedy is writing the gay marriage case, too, but that's based on his history writing the major gay rights cases and not on the current year's stats.

Thanks again for giving these insights; they're great.

Is there any chance the gay marriage decision will be "clean" -- i.e., establish gay marriage as a right in all 50 states, period? Or will we still be looking at a few more years and a few more cases until all the obstacles are finally gone?

[joecct]

Thanks again for giving these insights; they're great.

Is there any chance the gay marriage decision will be "clean" -- i.e., establish gay marriage as a right in all 50 states, period? Or will we still be looking at a few more years and a few more cases until all the obstacles are finally gone?

Kepler

You and I will disagree. States have the right to restrict who can and cannot get married in their state. They must also recognize a legal marriage from the other several states.

There is no doubt in my mind that same sex marriage is here to stay. But I would prefer to have the ratification done legislatively or via the ballot box rather than by judicial decree.

[burd]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

Kepler

You and I will disagree. States have the right to restrict who can and cannot get married in their state. They must also recognize a legal marriage from the other several states.

There is no doubt in my mind that same sex marriage is here to stay. But I would prefer to have the ratification done legislatively or via the ballot box rather than by judicial decree.

It's a states rights issue, 14th Amendment be dammmed? What happened to the good old miscegenation laws?

[Rover]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

Kepler

You and I will disagree. States have the right to restrict who can and cannot get married in their state. They must also recognize a legal marriage from the other several states.

There is no doubt in my mind that same sex marriage is here to stay. But I would prefer to have the ratification done legislatively or via the ballot box rather than by judicial decree.

So if a state bans interracial marriage you're cool with that?

[Kepler]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

Kepler

You and I will disagree. States have the right to restrict who can and cannot get married in their state. They must also recognize a legal marriage from the other several states.

There is no doubt in my mind that same sex marriage is here to stay. But I would prefer to have the ratification done legislatively or via the ballot box rather than by judicial decree.

As the other two posters said, on civil rights the 14th supersedes the states, so it comes down to whether this is a civil right. In my opinion, gay marriage is about to "graduate" to a civil right. I would think the case would wind up being explicitly decided on the 14th.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

So if a state bans interracial marriage you're cool with that?

People always seem to forget about that pesky precedent and what it means to this case. I don't know how they forget, but they always do.

[unofan]

Thanks again for giving these insights; they're great.

Is there any chance the gay marriage decision will be "clean" -- i.e., establish gay marriage as a right in all 50 states, period? Or will we still be looking at a few more years and a few more cases until all the obstacles are finally gone?

Considering that the official issue in the case is along the lines of "Does the 14th Amendment require states to license same sex marriages?" - yes, we will get a clean answer in that one. It only gets murky if the answer is "no."

Now some states have already had the derps set in motion things to counter a "yes" ruling. One set proposes to limit marriage to the religious by stripping powers from judges and other secular officials, something which would instantly fail a 1st Amendment challenge.

Others have threatened to pull their state out of the marriage business altogether, otherwise known as the "taking their ball and going home" defense. That might be legal though it would have a flurry of challenges since marriage is recognized as a fundamental right. I also don't believe the political will to actually go through with that exists. Are you really gonna tell millions of people they can't get married out of spite towards the gays?

[unofan]

Re: The Power of the SCOTUS Part VI - Roberts rules disorder

On the recognition question, it's not as clear cut as Joe would have you believe. It was apparent at oral argument most of the justices felt if the 14th doesn't require states to perform same sex marriages, it can't compel them to recognize them, either.

And the full faith and credit clause isn't in play this time around, and the judiciary doesn't seem compelled to go there anytime soon for some reason.