The ECAC schedule gets underway this weekend with a trio of games (two between RPI and Union and the first Dartmouth-Harvard game), so it's once again time for piles of numbers spit out by a program! I've abandoned the original projected standings in favor of the Monte Carlo simulation that was introduced last year (partially because it accounts for ties a bit better, partially because it's easier). Unlike previous years, the ECAC schedule starts before any of the Ivies have played a real game, so we have to pretend that they're all a healthy 0-0-1 against a perfectly average team for now.
Anyway, here are your first simulated final standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1062.98 possibilities):
(The Ivies are all essentially tied for fourth, but the list function doesn't care about that)
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.
Hard to pull anything away from rankings this early, we can probably expect Union (and maybe Colgate) to be a bye team and RPI and SLU to be in a fight for home ice.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Sorry about how wide that is. It'll obviously get pared down as the season progresses.
Anyway, here are your first simulated final standings (1,000,000 simulations of 1062.98 possibilities):
- Union
- Colgate
- Clarkson
- Harvard
- Yale
- Cornell
- Dartmouth
- Princeton
- Brown
—————
————— - Quinnipiac
- SLU
- RPI
(The Ivies are all essentially tied for fourth, but the list function doesn't care about that)
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.
Hard to pull anything away from rankings this early, we can probably expect Union (and maybe Colgate) to be a bye team and RPI and SLU to be in a fight for home ice.
Rank and Points breakdown:
Code:
| KRACH | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Un | 453.6 | 55.9 36.8 5.2 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 1.55 | 33.98 Cg | 391.2 | 41.7 46.9 7.6 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 1.76 | 33.03 Ck | 107.9 | 0.5 2.9 14.3 14.3 13.5 12.6 11.5 10.4 8.8 6.7 3.4 1.1 | 6.10 | 22.28 Ha | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.6 12.7 12.4 12.1 11.4 10.4 8.5 4.4 1.6 | 6.49 | 21.59 Ya | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.6 10.5 8.4 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.58 Cr | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.5 10.4 8.5 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.58 Da | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.8 12.5 12.1 11.5 10.4 8.4 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.59 Pr | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.2 11.4 10.4 8.4 4.5 1.6 | 6.50 | 21.58 Br | 100.0 | 0.3 2.1 11.4 12.5 12.6 12.5 12.1 11.5 10.5 8.5 4.5 1.6 | 6.51 | 21.58 Qu | 76.0 | 0.1 0.6 4.2 6.2 7.9 9.5 11.1 13.0 14.9 16.4 11.0 5.1 | 7.98 | 19.02 SL | 40.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.6 7.9 14.6 31.3 35.7 | 10.62 | 13.62 RP | 35.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.1 5.7 11.6 27.5 48.6 | 10.99 | 12.58 | KRACH | 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 |AvgPts --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Un | 453.6 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.6 3.9 5.5 7.4 9.2 10.6 11.5 11.3 10.4 8.6 6.5 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 | 33.98 Cg | 391.2 | x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.7 4.0 5.6 7.3 8.9 10.3 11.1 11.0 10.1 8.6 6.6 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 | 33.03 Ck | 107.9 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.5 9.4 8.8 7.8 6.5 5.1 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 22.28 Ha | 100.0 | x x 0.0 x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.7 7.8 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.59 Ya | 100.0 | x x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.6 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x | 21.58 Cr | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 4.0 5.3 6.7 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.4 9.0 8.1 6.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x | 21.58 Da | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.2 6.6 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.2 6.8 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x | 21.59 Pr | 100.0 | x x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.6 7.9 8.9 9.4 9.5 8.9 8.1 6.9 5.5 4.2 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x | 21.58 Br | 100.0 | x x 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 5.3 6.7 7.9 8.8 9.5 9.4 9.0 8.0 6.9 5.5 4.1 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x | 21.58 Qu | 76.0 | 0.0 x 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 4.7 6.1 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.5 9.3 8.5 7.4 6.0 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x | 19.02 SL | 40.9 | 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.4 7.1 8.5 9.7 10.1 10.1 9.3 8.2 6.8 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x | 13.62 RP | 35.8 | 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.4 3.8 5.5 7.2 8.8 9.9 10.4 10.3 9.5 8.1 6.6 5.1 3.7 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 x 0.0 x x x x x x x x x x x | 12.58 Bold is each team's most likely outcome. 0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times. x means the outcome never occurred.
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