Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodies

[vicb]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1) Minnesota
2) Wisconsin
3) Boston College
4) Harvard
5) Boston University
6) Cornell
7) Quinnipiac
8) North Dakota
9) Mercyhurst
10) Ohio State

[wwhyte]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1. Minnesota
2. Wisconsin
3. Boston College -- Next weekend will be the telling one for them
4. Harvard -- We start to get a sense of how they are next week with the exhibition against the Blades, which I'm looking forward to. A direct comparison with the Blades/BU game will be hard because the Blades' D can be expected to be much better after more games and practice time together, but it's a starting point.
5. BU
6. Cornell -- Don't envy them their opener
7. Quinnipiac
8. Mercyhurst
9. North Dakota
10. St. Lawrence

[frozenfeet]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

(1) Minnesota
(2) Wisconsin
(3) Boston College
(4) Boston University
( ) North Dakota
( ) UMD
( ) Quinnipiac
(8) Harvard
(9) Northeastern
(10) Mercyhurst

[Timothy A]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1 UM
2 UW
3 Hawvawd
4 Cornell
5 BU
6 BC
7 Mercy
8 UND
9 Qui
10 UMD

[CrankIt]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

8. North Dakota -- Good split. I don't think very highly of Duluth which is why I have NoDak ranked and not the Bulldogs.

Why rank UND if they just lost to a team you don't think very highly of? Doesn't that mean you shouldn't think very highly of NoDak also?

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Why rank UND if they just lost to a team you don't think very highly of? Doesn't that mean you shouldn't think very highly of NoDak also?

Well, yes, and I don't think particularly highly of NoDak. But at this point 1) I think UMD > NU, so 2) NoDak's split was better than Mercyhurst's and 3) that's why I flipped Hurst and NoDak in my rankings.

[pokechecker]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

1st Pokechecker Index of the year, although it is really still too early.
What the heck is the PI you ask?
It is the average of all the formal polls.
The beauty of this is that no single poll is perfect, so by averaging them, you get a clearer picture.
For example, although Quinnipiac is above BU, statistics tell us they are the same, and for that matter so is UND, although there is a bit more separation between them and Quinnipiac.
Minnesota, Wisconsin, & BC are clearly 1,2,3, … at least for now.
Since Cornell & Harvard haven’t played a game, kinda tough to rank them, they are likely higher.
9 & 10 had better improve if they want to make the final dance or even stay in the top 10.
Note to the Village Idiot: this is my submission for the week, although I really don't care if you include it or not.
BTW, you are wrong on UND/UMD and it will be proven.

1 Minnesota 3
2 Wisconsin 6
3 Boston C 11
4 Quinnipiac 22
5 Boston U 25
6 North Dakota 28
7 Cornell 10+
8 Harvard 11+
9 Ohio State 21+
10 UMD 23+

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Note to the Village Idiot: this is my submission for the week, although I really don't care if you include it or not.

Why wouldn't I? I told you last year I like the PI.

BTW, you are wrong on UND/UMD and it will be proven.

About what, specifically, that one is better than the other or that they both are good?

[5mn_Major]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

3. Boston College -- Pretty good game against UNH. A sweep of Cornell would move them up to 2 no matter what Wisconsin does to Bemidji, and #1 if Minny slips at all vs. ND.

Disagree.

Wisconsin - 19 goals for and 3 against in a four game sweep vs. UMD and OSU carries more weight than a 2-0-1 record against St Lawrence and UNH. UW did drop two games...but its to a team with 2 losses in its last 100+ games. On the other hand, if Cornell gets swept...there's no evidence that they're any kind of competition at this stage.

Minnesota - A sweep on the road of current #1 carries the mail...and extra tie and probably even a loss vs. UND will make no difference. At this point, the resumes aren't really that close between MN and BC.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

Disagree.

Wisconsin - 19 goals for and 3 against in a four game sweep vs. UMD and OSU carries more weight than a 2-0-1 record against St Lawrence and UNH. UW did drop two games...but its to a team with 2 losses in its last 100+ games. On the other hand, if Cornell gets swept...there's no evidence that they're any kind of competition at this stage.

Minnesota - A sweep on the road of current #1 carries the mail...and extra tie and probably even a loss vs. UND will make no difference. At this point, the resumes aren't really that close between MN and BC.

I love when western fans just totally throw away games against the WCHA because they're SUPER AWESOME so those slip ups shouldn't count. It's my favorite.

You're right, at this point the resumes between Minnesota and BC aren't close. But a sweep over Cornell would make it closer, and a Minnesota loss to North Dakota, contrary to what you might think, really does count, even though they play in the WCHA.

I mean seriously, did you catch what you just said?

UW did drop two games...but its to a team with 2 losses in its last 100+ games. On the other hand, if Cornell gets swept...there's no evidence that they're any kind of competition at this stage.

UW did lose two games, but it doesn't matter because they are good. But if Cornell gets swept, well, pssh, we know they aren't good, because they got swept, obvi.

Look, I don't have BC over Minnesota OR Wisconsin at this point, but to laugh off any suggestion that someone else might be close is quintessential vom-inducing WCHAness.

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

But if Cornell gets swept, well, pssh, we know they aren't good, because they got swept, obvi.

The caveat with Cornell is that they've been sitting around studying while the rest of the world has been playing hockey, so we may have to look at just how such a sweep unfolds. If BC gets an early head start but the series gets more even as it goes along, then what do we conclude from the series? So many variables, so few knowns.

[5mn_Major]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

I love when western fans just totally throw away games against the WCHA because they're SUPER AWESOME so those slip ups shouldn't count. It's my favorite.

You're right, at this point the resumes between Minnesota and BC aren't close. But a sweep over Cornell would make it closer, and a Minnesota loss to North Dakota, contrary to what you might think, really does count, even though they play in the WCHA.

I mean seriously, did you catch what you just said?

UW did lose two games, but it doesn't matter because they are good. But if Cornell gets swept, well, pssh, we know they aren't good, because they got swept, obvi.

Look, I don't have BC over Minnesota OR Wisconsin at this point, but to laugh off any suggestion that someone else might be close is quintessential vom-inducing WCHAness.

If down the line Cornell goes 12-2 after a BC sweep, BC will deserve plenty of credit at the holiday break. As ARM alluded to...if the strength of BC's resume is that it swept a team that's 0-2 and likely very rusty, it doesn't merit a #1 ranking in any poll. All other schools in the conversation will have swept teams that have been tested and with better records.

Beyond that, use facts to disagree with my previous points.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

The caveat with Cornell is that they've been sitting around studying while the rest of the world has been playing hockey, so we may have to look at just how such a sweep unfolds. If BC gets an early head start but the series gets more even as it goes along, then what do we conclude from the series? So many variables, so few knowns.

Certainly. My point with respect to 5mn_Major is that it's silly to automatically assume Cornell "isn't any kind of competition" if BC sweeps them.

[ARM]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

My point with respect to 5mn_Major is that it's silly to automatically assume Cornell "isn't any kind of competition" if BC sweeps them.

They are a red and white team. So there's that.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Fun With Numbers '14-'15: USCHO Posters Poll, Pairwise What-Ifs, and Other Goodie

If down the line Cornell goes 12-2 after a BC sweep, BC will deserve plenty of credit at the holiday break. As ARM alluded to...if the strength of BC's resume is that it swept a team that's 0-2 and likely very rusty, it doesn't merit a #1 ranking in any poll. All other schools in the conversation will have swept teams that have been tested and with better records.

Beyond that, use facts to disagree with my previous points.

I didn't say they would deserve to be #1. I said they would deserve to be #2.