Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Scooby, Dems got outmaneuvered on redistricting and got what they deserved. With any luck they won't make that mistake again next decade end. I highly doubt 55% of voters want a GOP Senate, unless its a very tight likely voter model. The GOP's approval rating is in the teens. Simply put, people don't like them. The only way they get into power is through indifference with the left leaning voter population. Either show up and vote, or your state turns into Kansas or Mississippi. Its not any more complicated than that.

They deserved it, but it wasn't just luck. It's the natural pattern one would expect to see when one party's base dominates its electoral support.

The GOP's net favorability is -20; the Dems is -8. The Dems should have a net generic advantage in the polls but at the moment there is a small GOP advantage (I've seen 52-48 which is within the margin of error).

It's not left wing indifference, it's centrist indifference that gives the current GOP traction. The left and right base are going to go to the polls. The right base is bigger for two reasons, both tribal: fundamentalist Christianity and rural white identity. Obviously there is a lot of overlap.

I'd posit that the breakdown of the full electorate is roughly:

30% GOP base
10% GOP lean
40% Dem lean
20% Dem base

Let's say 90% of the base turns out in all elections.
Let's say 20% of leaners vote in midterms and 40% vote in presidential years.


That gives:

Midterms:
GOP vs Dem
(.3 * .9) + (.1 * .2) vs (.2 * .9) + (.4 * .2)
.27 + .02 vs .18 + .08
.29 > .26

Presidential:
GOP vs Dem
(.3 * .9) + (.1 * .4) vs (.2 * .9) + (.4 * .4)
.27 + .04 vs .18 + .16
.31 < .34

Hence the difference.

[goldy_331]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Here's a little story on why we don't have a Surgeon General. You know, the guy/gal who would be handling this Ebola mess but can't because Ted Cruz doesn't think the nominee is a health professional and only thinks the nominee is an anti-gun nut. Cause, guns are NOT a public health issue.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-s...urgeon-general

You do know that the Senate can approve an appointment with a simple majority now since the dems changed the rules, right? And you do know the dems have a five seat majority of the Senate, right? So just how is it the repub's fault that there is no sitting Surgeon General?

Is it still Bush's fault? Or is it the Kochs now?

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

You do know that the Senate can approve an appointment with a simple majority now since the dems changed the rules, right? And you do know the dems have a five seat majority of the Senate, right? So just how is it the repub's fault that there is no sitting Surgeon General?

Is it still Bush's fault? Or is it the Kochs now?

I agree with this. Dems should approve the guy and call it a day.

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

You realize you're effectively saying you don't care about a cure being worse than the (statistically non-existent) problem of in person voting fraud, right?

it's a bit like saying "here's a cure for Ebola. Ignore the fact that it will give 5% of you MRSA."

You keep relying on "statistics" which I've already explained don't prove (to me) what you think they prove to you.

It's a bit more like saying "here's a cure for Ebola, but it will give 0.0001% of you the sniffles and I'm okay with that."

[goldy_331]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I agree with this.

Mark this day down. First and last time Rover and I agree on something.

[unofan]

You keep relying on "statistics" which I've already explained don't prove (to me) what you think they prove to you.

It's a bit more like saying "here's a cure for Ebola, but it will give 0.0001% of you the sniffles and I'm okay with that."

In the Wisconsin case, the state's own numbers showed up to 10% of the electorate would not be able to vote in this election if the new law was enforced. That's coming from the Walker administration, so perhaps you will believe them.

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

In the Wisconsin case, the state's own numbers showed up to 10% of the electorate would not be able to vote in this election if the new law was enforced. That's coming from the Walker administration, so perhaps you will believe them.

Right, because since I'm in favor of any Voter ID law, I clearly must be in favor of ALL of them? And if any particular implementation of Voter ID disenfranchised lots of people, they all must do so? Go directly back to law school to re-take formal logic -do not pass Go and do not collect $200.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

So, according to that line of thinking, you should be happy that the Republicans are pushing voter ID. Are you? Maybe for some of us, this really is about the integrity of the process - forget the outcome; let those chips fall where they may. If that means that more (legitimately registered) Democrats show up to vote, then so be it.

I think all of the shenanigans are stupid and a waste of tavpayer dollars and court time. A better way of putting it is that I don't worry about voter ID legislation. People are going to find a way to vote. Also, the courts will only allow you to go so far with some of these laws. Were these laws effective, shouldn't we be talking about President Romney right now, after he won Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and everywhere else new voter restrictions went into effect?

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Right, because since I'm in favor of any Voter ID law, I clearly must be in favor of ALL of them? And if any particular implementation of Voter ID disenfranchised lots of people, they all must do so? Go directly back to law school to re-take formal logic -do not pass Go and do not collect $200.

What do you recommend as an example of a fair voter ID law?

I totally get the visceral reaction of "you oppose voter ID -- you must be advocating fraud." But I also get that the practical consequence (not to mention: the aim) of many of these laws introduced by the GOP is a hamfisted attempt to suppress the votes of people they don't want to count.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I think all of the shenanigans are stupid and a waste of tavpayer dollars and court time. A better way of putting it is that I don't worry about voter ID legislation. People are going to find a way to vote. Also, the courts will only allow you to go so far with some of these laws. Were these laws effective, shouldn't we be talking about President Romney right now, after he won Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and everywhere else new voter restrictions went into effect?

Bad reasoning. The idea of voter misinformation and suppression is to influence around the margins, and if 2000 taught us anything it's that the margins matter.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

Bad reasoning. The idea of voter misinformation and suppression is to influence around the margins, and if 2000 taught us anything it's that the margins matter.

2000 wasn't lost because of voter supression though. It was lost because of idiot Gore campaign, up to and including not asking for a statewide recount which tends to benefit Dems as their voters are most likely to be undercounted.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

2000 wasn't lost because of voter supression though. It was lost because of idiot Gore campaign, up to and including not asking for a statewide recount which tends to benefit Dems as their voters are most likely to be undercounted.

This is like saying Bill Buckner didn't lose the 6th game, Bob Stanley did. It's false precision -- there were several important factors.

I have no doubt voter suppression won't last long -- just a cycle or two until there are so many stories about elderly WHITE people who get their rights stolen that the press and the average voter start caring. But as we saw, again, in 2000, one election can do decades worth of damage to the country. This incarnation of the GOP is more vain and inept than the last, which was homicidal and inept, but eventually they'll come up with A Plan, and then they'll be formidable again. The best thing we can do is ensure they keep losing until they exorcise the crazier elements because if not those elements will wield power again someday.

[joecct]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I blame Calvin Schiraldi.

Bad law and it's consequences? Legislative overreach? Nanny State? http://www.okcfo*****/story/26799348...espread-issues

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

I blame Calvin Schiraldi.

He was our mole.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2014: The Epic Struggle To Win The Senate And Change Nothing

This is like saying Bill Buckner didn't lose the 6th game, Bob Stanley did. It's false precision -- there were several important factors.

I have no doubt voter suppression won't last long -- just a cycle or two until there are so many stories about elderly WHITE people who get their rights stolen that the press and the average voter start caring. But as we saw, again, in 2000, one election can do decades worth of damage to the country. This incarnation of the GOP is more vain and inept than the last, which was homicidal and inept, but eventually they'll come up with A Plan, and then they'll be formidable again. The best thing we can do is ensure they keep losing until they exorcise the crazier elements because if not those elements will wield power again someday.

But again Kep, voter suppression didn't lose Gore either Florida or the national election. I can't think of any races off the top of my head where it did influence an outcome. Its a waste of time.