Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

[St. Clown]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

My company's PAC all but orders employees to vote R. Obviously they never advocate a particular candidate or party but it is obvious what they consider to be "responsible policies that encourage job growth and national defense." Add in that the defense contractor community is dominated both in leadership and the ranks by people farther right than the Southern Baptist Convention, and you've got a Perfect Storm of CorporateCon depravity.

Rand Paul would cause so much cognitive dissonance around these parts that the breakroom would look like a scene out of Scanners.

I work for some of those "banksters" that people like to rant about. We're continually lobbied to vote for D initiatives because they'll help our business secure more loan business. We receive these messages at both the state and federal levels. The full frontal campaign that will rev up in a couple months just gets sickening. 280,000 employees as a captive audience makes for a lot of cheap advertising.

[LynahFan]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

My company's PAC all but orders employees to vote R. Obviously they never advocate a particular candidate or party but it is obvious what they consider to be "responsible policies that encourage job growth and national defense." Add in that the defense contractor community is dominated both in leadership and the ranks by people farther right than the Southern Baptist Convention, and you've got a Perfect Storm of CorporateCon depravity.

Rand Paul would cause so much cognitive dissonance around these parts that the breakroom would look like a scene out of Scanners.

Completely agree with all of this. When I worked at Lockheed during the 2004 election, it was very common to hear people discuss how much they hated "having to" vote for Cheney (who had cancelled a major program of theirs while Sec Def under Bush I) - but they all still voted for him. Better a Republican with a proven track record of cancelling programs than to vote for a dirty Democrat - R stands for "reflex."

Rover - gotcha now, and I do still disagree. The knee-jerk reactions are strong with these ones - defense cons will vote any R over Hillary, rational or not.

[Jimjamesak]

Completely agree with all of this. When I worked at Lockheed during the 2004 election, it was very common to hear people discuss how much they hated "having to" vote for Cheney (who had cancelled a major program of theirs while Sec Def under Bush I) - but they all still voted for him. Better a Republican with a proven track record of cancelling programs than to vote for a dirty Democrat - R stands for "reflex."

Rover - gotcha now, and I do still disagree. The knee-jerk reactions are strong with these ones - defense cons will vote any R over Hillary, rational or not.

Pretty much the political opposite being in a union. Better a Dem than anybody else. And they make it very clear who you and what you are supposed to vote for.

[Slap Shot]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I think some of you are overestimating how many voters will be thinking of Bill - especially Dems - when thinking about Hillary as a candidate. And for her that's bad news.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I think some of you are overestimating how many voters will be thinking of Bill - especially Dems - when thinking about Hillary as a candidate. And for her that's bad news.

People over 50 will vote for Bill III in 3D. People under 40 have no memory of Bill and will vote for Hillary. People 40-50 will be a mixed bag.

For every voter Hillary loses because people can't remember Bill, she'll probably pick up a woman voting for her strictly out of Girl Power solidarity. The problem with Hillary has never been electability. It's whether we really want to give Tracy Flick nukes.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

That's the part of all this that most pundidiots are missing. Hillary will fairly easily keep the Obama coalition intact as for every Edward Snowden devotee she loses she picks up more than that due to the Girl Power crowd. As Obama won two elections convincingly and the GOP will probably put up another dinosaur the odds are in her favor.

A big issue then is does she crush the opposition or just merely win. Older married women are one of the most reliable GOP voters nowadays. I find it hard to believe a generation of women in their 50's-70's and even beyond are going to bypass the chance to see a woman President in their lifetimes, even if they aren't 100% wild about her personally. That would be like saying Catholics weren't excited about Kennedy or blacks about Obama. Take them out of the GOP's vote and all you're left with is grumpy old men.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

A big issue then is does she crush the opposition or just merely win. Older married women are one of the most reliable GOP voters nowadays. I find it hard to believe a generation of women in their 50's-70's and even beyond are going to bypass the chance to see a woman President in their lifetimes, even if they aren't 100% wild about her personally. That would be like saying Catholics weren't excited about Kennedy or blacks about Obama. Take them out of the GOP's vote and all you're left with is grumpy old men.

I'll bet the women who would back Hillary out of Girl Power are already voting Democratic. The GOP has been so hateful towards any other image of a woman than Kinder, Küche, Kirche that the women who have hitherto been lining up behind them are motivated by religion or just lifers.

I don't see anybody switching sides, but elections are won by turn out, and I could see women with spotty voting records turn out in droves for Hillary just like blacks did for O. It's also going to be hard for the GOP to play their usual "unless he's a white male he's not a real 'Murican" shtick against women. No doubt the professionals will try to quash that, but the grassroots will be full of Schlafly types peddling 19th century visions of feminine identity that will not just fall flat on contemporary women, but repulse them.

The interesting tactical problem for the GOP is if Hillary is the nominee then they must put a woman on the ticket, and there is no credible woman for the GOP to choose. Palin is a moron and Bachmann is insane. Rice is sick to death of the whole circus. Look at this list, from a righty source. It's a freakshow.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

I'll bet the women who would back Hillary out of Girl Power are already voting Democratic. The GOP has been so hateful towards any other image of a woman than Kinder, Küche, Kirche that the women who have hitherto been lining up behind them are motivated by religion or just lifers.

I don't see anybody switching sides, but elections are won by turn out, and I could see women with spotty voting records turn out in droves for Hillary just like blacks did for O. It's also going to be hard for the GOP to play their usual "unless he's a white male he's not a real 'Murican" shtick against women. No doubt the professionals will try to quash that, but the grassroots will be full of Schlafly types peddling 19th century visions of feminine identity that will not just fall flat on contemporary women, but repulse them.

The interesting tactical problem for the GOP is if Hillary is the nominee then they must put a woman on the ticket, and there is no credible woman for the GOP to choose. Palin is a moron and Bachmann is insane. Rice is sick to death of the whole circus. Look at this list, from a righty source. It's a freakshow.

In lieu of a woman on the ticket, I think despite his flaws they almost have to put Rubio on the ticket to try and counter the "making history" narrative. Not only is he Hispanic but the GOP has zero hope of winning the election without winning Florida. They aren't about to put Rick Scott on the ticket. While a Paul-Rubio ticket will still lose, as Paul from Kentucky isn't strong in any swing states they need to win, at least it gets closer with perhaps Florida's 29 electoral votes (and yes I realize Paul Ryan didn't help Mittens in Wisconsin last time).

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

In lieu of a woman on the ticket, I think despite his flaws they almost have to put Rubio on the ticket to try and counter the "making history" narrative. Not only is he Hispanic but the GOP has zero hope of winning the election without winning Florida. They aren't about to put Rick Scott on the ticket. While a Paul-Rubio ticket will still lose, as Paul from Kentucky isn't strong in any swing states they need to win, at least it gets closer with perhaps Florida's 29 electoral votes (and yes I realize Paul Ryan didn't help Mittens in Wisconsin last time).

Didn't Rubio peace out when he came out in favor of an immigration policy that did not include garroting all brown children at the border?

A Hispanic woman would be the magic unicorn of this cycle. Leticia Van de Putte and Michelle Lujan Grisham are local yokel. Susana Martínez is popular and successful; maybe whatever dead white male the GOP nominates will throw her a bone.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Didn't Rubio peace out when he came out in favor of an immigration policy that did not include all garroting all brown children at the border?

A Hispanic woman would be the magic unicorn of this cycle. Leticia Van de Putte and Michelle Lujan Grisham are local yokel. Susana Martínez is popular and successful; maybe whatever dead white male the GOP nominates will throw her a bone.

GOP's approach will be interesting. They need a ticket that appeals to the South (VA and FL, very different states), the West (CO, maybe NV) and the Rust Belt (OH). That's not easy to pull off especially if the party's top prospects are from KY and TX. Does anybody really want Bush II budget director Portman as their VP?

Not that he had good odds of getting the nomination beforehand, but with Christie taking on water nationally (Bridgegate, unemployment, budget mess, etc) there goes an opportunity for someone who could change the electoral calculus by competing for NJ, PA, etc. Absent that you have a situation where whatever Gooper it is regardless of a Hillary candidacy needs to run the table in almost all swing states to win.

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Absent that you have a situation where whatever Gooper it is regardless of a Hillary candidacy needs to run the table in almost all swing states to win.

Which means they need a wave. There is no way for the GOP to cobble together wins in all those varied purple states with strictly parochial appeals. They need a strong wave to lift them in all states.

Looking around, I see no wave, unless it is Paul and a repudiation of empire and militarism, and as has been pointed out below that would require a huge change in the conservative psyche. The lizard brain has been running the show for those guys for too long.

[Jimjamesak]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

The primary in Alaska is today. Between an Oil Tax prop and the GOP Senate race, a *ton of money has been spent.

[Jimjamesak]

The primary in Alaska is today. Between an Oil Tax prop and the GOP Senate race, a *ton of money has been spent.

So in the one race that matters to the nation, the GOP primary, Dan Sullivan has a slight lead on Joe Miller with about 2/3rds reporting.
Results.

Sullivan is probably the one with best chance to beat Begich. If Miller wins then it'll be Begich by a not quite landslide in November.

Our Oil Tax repeal proposition is close and brought out a bigger turn out this year.

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Which means they need a wave. .

Or a game changer for a nominee. The Dems had lost California, the biggest electoral prize, from 1968 to 1988 until Bill Clinton came along. They hadn't won Florida since 1980 until he won in it in 1996. The 1992 election, like the 1980 election brought about a fundamental change in the electoral math governing a victory. The 1984 and 1996 elections cemented those gains.

With Obama putting aside the fluky Indiana victory in 2008 (akin to Clinton winning Arizona in 1996) IIRC the only states he's won that Clinton didn't are VA (twice) and NC (narrow win, narrow loss).

As I mentioned previously Christie before his troubles had the potential to do that with presumed support in the Northeast that the GOP hasn't seen since 1988. Not sure who pulls that off now, as Paul, Cruz, Perry, Rubio, etc are all from party base states unless I'm missing somebody. Maybe Guiliani makes another bid!

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 - Run-HRC? Honest Injun? Gott Mitt Himmel? RyanRubioCruzCrud?

Or a game changer for a nominee. The Dems had lost California, the biggest electoral prize, from 1968 to 1988 until Bill Clinton came along. They hadn't won Florida since 1980 until he won in it in 1996. The 1992 election, like the 1980 election brought about a fundamental change in the electoral math governing a victory. The 1984 and 1996 elections cemented those gains.

With Obama putting aside the fluky Indiana victory in 2008 (akin to Clinton winning Arizona in 1996) IIRC the only states he's won that Clinton didn't are VA (twice) and NC (narrow win, narrow loss).

As I mentioned previously Christie before his troubles had the potential to do that with presumed support in the Northeast that the GOP hasn't seen since 1988. Not sure who pulls that off now, as Paul, Cruz, Perry, Rubio, etc are all from party base states unless I'm missing somebody. Maybe Guiliani makes another bid!

Mr. 9/11 was stale in 2008 -- by 2016 he'll be the hardened bubble gum underneath middle school desks.

Ronald Reagan is not walking through that door. The GOP has nobody who is transformative. Their yezhovshchina has removed everybody who challenges the party dogma. Where would a game changer come from? As you allude to with Christie, probably a liberal state, where the racist-homophobe playbook doesn't work and a statewide GOP winner has to win on a combination of moderate policy (in this GOP, that's radical) and sheer charisma.

Here are the sitting GOP governors of liberal/centrist states:

IA, Terry Branstad
ME, Paul LePage
MI, Rick Snyder
NV, Brian Sandoval
NJ, Chris Christie
NM, Susana Martinez
OH, John Kasich
PA, Tom Corbett
WI, Scott Walker

Christie is probably irreparably damaged.
Walker is poison.
LePage is a loon.
Martinez and Kasich have some measure of a national profile.
I've never heard of any of the others.