2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Hopefully you're right. (obviously)

The great thing about WW3 is if I'm wrong I'll never need to apologize.

[joecct]

The great thing about WW3 is if I'm wrong I'll never need to apologize.

It may not go nuclear. Only.when threatened with national extinction do I think you hit the launch button.

Of course thst assumes that the political leadership is sane and they possess all of their essence.

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Why would anybody launch WWIII over 1) the Ukraine, or 2) the Middle East? For all of Putin's so-called bluster that's made him a hero in some conservative circles, I notice he's not too keen on challenging NATO for some reason.

[joecct]

Why would anybody launch WWIII over 1) the Ukraine, or 2) the Middle East? For all of Putin's so-called bluster that's made him a hero in some conservative circles, I notice he's not too keen on challenging NATO for some reason.

All it takes is one idiot bystander to up the ante by trying to make the conflict "fair" or jumping in because somebody is getting the thit beaten out of them. Then it becomes a runaway reaction.

Sort of like the Balkans 100 years ago.

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

It may not go nuclear. Only when threatened with national extinction do I think you hit the launch button.

I really hope this is true. The problem with a conventional war between nuclear powers is the end game. Unless it's a stalemate, the side that's losing will be tempted to ratchet things up a little higher. Eventually you run out of conventional "higher." And if an opponent uses tactical nuclear weapons in a battlefield situation, do you respond with strategic nuclear bombing of his cities? The "doomsday" decision just gets kicked down the road.

Let's say Crazy Ivan lived up to his name this evening and just started pouring tank columns into Ukraine, didn't stop, crossed into Poland, and was making pretty good time towards the German border. Meanwhile the Russian air force took out NATO's (and whatever the EU's flying circus is) and had air superiority within the first 12 hours. Short of tactical nuclear weapons, what could the west do to halt the attack?

[LynahFan]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I really hope this is true. The problem with a conventional war between nuclear powers is the end game. Unless it's a stalemate, the side that's losing will be tempted to ratchet things up a little higher. Eventually you run out of conventional "higher." And if an opponent uses tactical nuclear weapons in a battlefield situation, do you respond with strategic nuclear bombing of his cities? The "doomsday" decision just gets kicked down the road.

Let's say Crazy Ivan lived up to his name this evening and just started pouring tank columns into Ukraine, didn't stop, crossed into Poland, and was making pretty good time towards the German border. Meanwhile the Russia air force took out NATO's (and whatever the EU's flying circus is) and had air superiority within the first 12 hours. Short of tactical nuclear weapons, what could the west do to halt the attack?

Halt? Probably nothing, but you don't have to win the first battle to win the war.

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Meanwhile the Russian air force took out NATO's (and whatever the EU's flying circus is) and had air superiority within the first 12 hours. Short of tactical nuclear weapons, what could the west do to halt the attack?

This is where your scenario falls apart. Why not say what if Russia made an alliance with Godzilla and invaded the West while the creature was terrorising NYC or Tokyo?

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

This is where your scenario falls apart. Why not say what if Russia made an alliance with Godzilla and invaded the West while the creature was terrorising NYC or Tokyo?

Pfft. Obviously Godzilla has a prior alliance with China.

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Halt? Probably nothing, but you don't have to win the first battle to win the war.

That doesn't make Angela feel any better, and the Germans have nukes. "Stillstand." "Nyet." "I mean it." "Make me." Now what?

The Russians probably don't believe we'd escalate. "Ze vest ees decadent!"

[unofan]

That doesn't make Angela feel any better, and the Germans have nukes. "Stillstand." "Nyet." "I mean it." "Make me." Now what?

Russia getting air superiority is a laughable premise.

And Rover's right. Ukraine's mistake was not joining NATO. Putin has been extremely cautious to avoid any entanglements with the eastern block countries that have since joined up with NATO.

[LynahFan]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

That doesn't make Angela feel any better, and the Germans have nukes. "Stillstand." "Nyet." "I mean it." "Make me." Now what?

The Russians probably don't believe we'd escalate. "Ze vest ees decadent!"

I don't believe the Germans would escalate, either. Their national psyche is already permanently scarred from the atrocities of 70 years ago; I can't see them making the leap and becoming "that country" again.

[walrus]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Something I've thought about the last few days...is it possible that we're seeing the opening shots of World War 3 over the last several weeks/months? I see no way this Russia/Ukraine conflict ends well. I think Putin is too proud to back down. The thing I can't figure out is the Islam/Israel factor. Israel is obviously an ally of the US, but is Islam an ally of anyone? If the worst case were to happen, and this explodes into an all-out world war situation, is it a 3-way war? What does China do?

Really scary stuff to think about.

Welcome to the 50s and 60s, its deja vu all over again

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Russia getting air superiority is a laughable premise.

Against us, yes. Against western Europe? I have a feeling the Luftwaffe aint what it was.

[Kepler]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

I don't believe the Germans would escalate, either. Their national psyche is already permanently scarred from the atrocities of 70 years ago; I can't see them making the leap and becoming "that country" again.

There's that, yes. But self-defense is way different.

[Rover]

Re: 2nd Term Part VIII - The Thin Red Line

Welcome to the 50s and 60s, its deja vu all over again

Only for paranoid people dying to relive the Cold War.

Kep no offense but your scenario is nonsense. I'm not sure Russia can even afford to maintain its airforce, let alone turn it into the best flying force the world has ever known, which is what it would need to be to achieve air superiority over NATO. In 12 hours....

Also, I was unaware of Germany having nukes, meaning weapons. IIRC the declared nuclear states are US, UK, France, China, Russia, India, Pakistan and N. Korea with Israel suspected of having the capability but never acknowledging it.