The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

We can say for sure that it will be - Minnesota(1), BC(2), Union(3).
Last #1 seed is up for grabs between UW, Quinn, NoDame, Lowell, maybe Providence.

Did you forget Ferris, or is there really no way for them to secure the #4 overall? (He asks, even though he could just go test it out on CHN)

[Dutchman]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

If Union and QU win next week, will Colgate and Cornell still make it? What about unranked conference upsets. Are those factored in?

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Roughly, I think the top 10 are in. The only threat is to StCloud if Michigan loses the final to OSU/MSU and there are upsets everywhere.

Michigan - needs at least one win to be sure, but has lots of chance even if they lose to PennState.
Mankato - needs to beat at least BowlingGreen, because the RPI hit is too severe if they don't. Then, it's ok to lose to Ferris, but it might not be to lose to Anchorage.
North Dakota - beat Miami, then we will see.
Vermont - Root for Colgate and/or Cornell to lose, and North Dakota to lose (they are above the 14 cut line, so ND losing helps them).
Colgate/Cornell - need to win at least once, maybe twice
NewHampshire - needs to win the HEA
Northeastern - needs Colgate and Cornell to lose
Everyone else still playing needs the auto-bid

These are "best guess". I have not actually run all the possibilities.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Did you forget Ferris, or is there really no way for them to secure the #4 overall? (He asks, even though he could just go test it out on CHN)

Forgot them. Sorry. Very good chance for them. Need to win WCHA. But Anchorge's low rank hurts them. Providence or Lowell can get more RPI bounce, plus QWB points. But it sure is still possible. Sorry again.

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

If Union and QU win next week, will Colgate and Cornell still make it? What about unranked conference upsets. Are those factored in?

If Un and QU win, then Northeastern jumps both Colgate and Cornell, so it becomes very dicey. More so if there are upsets.

[Koho]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

And, it makes a few hockey games seem not very important.

Been to the beaches of Normandy and have seen concentration camps. Been in Eastern Block countries and saw the Wall before it fell. All very somber. But I will still never say 'hockey games aren't very important!'

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

North Dakota - beat Miami, then we will see.

I can get North Dakota in with a loss to Miami, and a win in the consolation game so long as either Mankato or Michigan lose their first game.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I can get North Dakota in with a loss to Miami, and a win in the consolation game so long as either Mankato or Michigan lose their first game.

Same with Colgate. The Sioux would also need no upset tournament winners in the B1G, Hockey East, WCHA, & ECAC.

It also looks like the same scenario applies if North Dakota beats Miami and loses to Denver/Western for the NCHC title. FWIW, I've only tried out a couple dozen scenarios.

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Same with Colgate. The Sioux would also need no upset tournament winners in the B1G, Hockey East, WCHA, & ECAC.

It also looks like the same scenario applies if North Dakota beats Miami and loses to Denver/Western for the NCHC title. FWIW, I've only tried out a couple dozen scenarios.

That's good to know about Colgate. I like their chances to lose better than Michigan or Mankato.

[CollegeHockeyRinkReport]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

My latest take on the Pairwise and Bracketology:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2014...n-ferris-state

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Same with Colgate. The Sioux would also need no upset tournament winners in the B1G, Hockey East, WCHA, & ECAC.

It also looks like the same scenario applies if North Dakota beats Miami and loses to Denver/Western for the NCHC title. FWIW, I've only tried out a couple dozen scenarios.

Sorry. I couldn't get the Colgate scenario to work. I put Michigan to lose to Wisconsin after beating PennState. Mankato to lose to Ferris after beating Bowling Green. And, then I put Colgate to lose to Quinn. Comes out with UND 14th, and out due to WMU and the AHA Champ being in the field. If you make BOTH Cornell and Colgate lose to Union and Quinn, then, yes, UND makes it as the last at large team in.

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Sorry. I couldn't get the Colgate scenario to work. I put Michigan to lose to Wisconsin after beating PennState. Mankato to lose to Ferris after beating Bowling Green. And, then I put Colgate to lose to Quinn. Comes out with UND 14th, and out due to WMU and the AHA Champ being in the field. If you make BOTH Cornell and Colgate lose to Union and Quinn, then, yes, UND makes it as the last at large team in.

That's why I qualified my statement about no upset tournament winners in the other 4 conferences, and the fact that I had only tried out a few scenarios. Looks like for the Sioux to make it in with just 1 win (either on Friday or Saturday) they need:


1) Penn State over Michigan;
2) Bowling Green over Mankato; OR
3) QU vs Union in ECAC title game.

PLUS

A)Minny or Wisconsin win the B1G (or Michigan in scenario 2 or 3)
B) Ferris State win WCHA (or Mankato in scenarios 1 and 3)
C) Anyone but UNH to win Hockey East; AND
D) Either QU OR Union to win on Friday

Or, Sioux could just win both games and not have to worry about any of this

EDIT:

Also, for each additional scenario from 1-3 that happens, you can eliminate one of the A-D Pluses. For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, and goes on to win the B1G (eliminating Plus A), but Mankato falls to Bowling Green (and Pluses B-D remain) then North Dakota still advances with 1 win. If all 3 Scenarios happen (i.e. 1-3 all happen), then only one of the A-C pluses need to happen (because if Scenario 3 happens, Plus D will have already happened). For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, Bowling Green beats Mankato, and QU and Union advance to the ECAC Title game, then all the Sioux need are either a New Hampshire loss (either Friday or Saturday), Ferris State winning the WCHA, OR Minnesota or Wisconsin winning the B1G ten (obviously still coupled with a Sioux win on EITHER Friday or Saturday).

I was not a big fan of the Third Place game addition to the NCHC (I'm still not), but it does look like it gives the Sioux another path to the NCAA Tournament. Without the consolation game, the Sioux would be almost certainly out with a loss on Friday.

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

That's why I qualified my statement about no upset tournament winners in the other 4 conferences, and the fact that I had only tried out a few scenarios. Looks like for the Sioux to make it in with just 1 win (either on Friday or Saturday) they need:


1) Penn State over Michigan;
2) Bowling Green over Mankato; OR
3) QU vs Union in ECAC title game.

PLUS

A)Minny or Wisconsin win the B1G (or Michigan in scenario 2 or 3)
B) Ferris State win WCHA (or Mankato in scenarios 1 and 3)
C) Anyone but UNH to win Hockey East; AND
D) Either QU OR Union to win on Friday

Or, Sioux could just win both games and not have to worry about any of this

EDIT:

Also, for each additional scenario from 1-3 that happens, you can eliminate one of the A-D Pluses. For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, and goes on to win the B1G (eliminating Plus A), but Mankato falls to Bowling Green (and Pluses B-D remain) then North Dakota still advances with 1 win. If all 3 Scenarios happen (i.e. 1-3 all happen), then only one of the A-C pluses need to happen (because if Scenario 3 happens, Plus D will have already happened). For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, Bowling Green beats Mankato, and QU and Union advance to the ECAC Title game, then all the Sioux need are either a New Hampshire loss (either Friday or Saturday), Ferris State winning the WCHA, OR Minnesota or Wisconsin winning the B1G ten (obviously still coupled with a Sioux win on EITHER Friday or Saturday).

I was not a big fan of the Third Place game addition to the NCHC (I'm still not), but it does look like it gives the Sioux another path to the NCAA Tournament. Without the consolation game, the Sioux would be almost certainly out with a loss on Friday.

When I was playing around with it last night I think there was also a way for UND to sneak in with a loss to Miami and a TIE with Denver. As I recall, it involved either a Michigan or Mankato loss in their first game.

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I'm not here. I'm still asleep.

In:
Minnesota (#1 overall, 1 seed in St Paul)
Boston College (1 seed in Worcester)
Union (1 seed in Bridgeport)
Ferris State
Wisconsin
Quinnipiac
Lowell
Notre Dame
Providence
St Cloud

Season done but still in the race for at-large:
Vermont
Northeastern

Still alive for at-large
Michigan
Mankato
North Dakota
Colgate
Cornell

Everyone else needs an autobid or their season is over.

Zzzzzz

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Still not here, but this is a link to the predictor.