Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Please?

[Hux]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

It's not the defense, it's the goaltending.

BC shots on goal are slightly down from last season, shot % is slightly down too, but nothing scary. (You can argue that the start of this season had weaker opponents then last season taken as a whole, and that's true, but I don't think it's the main problem).

Opponents shots on goal are basically the same, but opponent shot % is up from .08 to .1.

			BC							Opponent		
		SOG/Game	Goals/Game	SOG%		SOG/Game	Goals/Game	SOG%
12-13		38.14		4.30		0.11		25.16		2.00		0.08
13-14		35.44		3.89		0.11		25.22		2.56		0.10

The good thing is that it's mainly the goaltending, and if Boyles can get back up to her .927 from last season, or if Miller can get back up to her .905, then we're good. The bad thing is, what if they can't?

Obviously there's an issue of scoring consistency as well -- but even against Syracuse and UNH, there were plenty of shots on goal, just a lot of them got saved.

I wouldn't put too much stock in the shot count for games at BC, as they seem to lack an understanding of what is, and isn't, a shot on goal. Re: They credited Roxanne Douville with some 70+ shots a few seasons ago. My count was 43 actual shots on net. Conversely, they tend to low ball the shots on their own netminders. Re: Molly Schaus' sophomore year there was some hand wringing that her save % wasn't what it was the year before. I kept track of shots in over a half dozen trips to Conte and the BC folks averaged five shots a game fewer than what were actually on net. (anything out of the offensive zone wasn't counted, and often the second or third whacks at pucks in a crease scrum.)

[wwhyte]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

I wouldn't put too much stock in the shot count for games at BC, as they seem to lack an understanding of what is, and isn't, a shot on goal. Re: They credited Roxanne Douville with some 70+ shots a few seasons ago. My count was 43 actual shots on net. Conversely, they tend to low ball the shots on their own netminders. Re: Molly Schaus' sophomore year there was some hand wringing that her save % wasn't what it was the year before. I kept track of shots in over a half dozen trips to Conte and the BC folks averaged five shots a game fewer than what were actually on net. (anything out of the offensive zone wasn't counted, and often the second or third whacks at pucks in a crease scrum.)

That's totally fair enough, and I've heard that before. But so long as they undercount or overcount it consistently from season to season, it should be possible to make season-to-season comparisons, and that's what I'm trying to do here. Does that make sense or am I missing something?

[Eeyore]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

That's totally fair enough, and I've heard that before. But so long as they undercount or overcount it consistently from season to season, it should be possible to make season-to-season comparisons, and that's what I'm trying to do here. Does that make sense or am I missing something?

It adds a layer of uncertainty, because "being inconsistent in the same way they have been in the past" does add an additional assumption beyond "remains consistent" because it means that the official scorer probably isn't working from a well defined concept of what a SOG is. So it may work out just fine but it's hard to tell.

That said, and without having actually seen BC play, my guess is that you have probably half identified the underlying problem correctly. If we accept the above data as both valid and comprehensive it still doesn't answer the whole issue. A decrease in save percentage from 92% to 90% would be one goal every 50 shots, or somewhere around a half a goal a game. I don't intend to run the numbers but I suspect that the variance in your goalie performance is way up. For a team in BC's position, with a great offense and averagish goal prevention, that's not a good trend. In general, the better your goalie is relative to the rest of the team the more variance will help you because it increases the number of times she'll steal a game that your offense couldn't have won on its own.

In BC's case, they'd be better off if they got a .900-.910 save percentage every single night rather than having the same aggregate number of goals allowed but one game every other week when the goalie melts down.

[ARM]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

It's not the defense, it's the goaltending.

From the times I've seen BC this year, I don't know that you can conclude that. There have definitely been specific plays where it wasn't the goaltending, it was the defense that was not at last season's level. When you remove a couple players like Bolden and Burns from the depth chart, it means that everybody else gets promoted, and it is normal for one or two to struggle with that ascension.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

Weekend recap where I kind of touch on the 7-2-0 "rough stretch"

http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...idence-college

I really think BC's problems are 1) a cold streak in goaltending, 2) the mid-pack teams being really decent this year (or at least the ceiling of the top teams being brought down a bit) because of the Olympics, and 3) BC playing down to opponents, having now played a single really "good" team yet.

I'm curious to see what we do against Quinnipiac, both to get my head around how good we are and to get my head around how good QU is.

[sterlippo1]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

Weekend recap where I kind of touch on the 7-2-0 "rough stretch"

http://www.bcinterruption.com/boston...idence-college

I really think BC's problems are 1) a cold streak in goaltending, 2) the mid-pack teams being really decent this year (or at least the ceiling of the top teams being brought down a bit) because of the Olympics, and 3) BC playing down to opponents, having now played a single really "good" team yet.

I'm curious to see what we do against Quinnipiac, both to get my head around how good we are and to get my head around how good QU is.

do the Olympians come back afterwards? I've been meaning to ask you w t f is up with the women's team? two inexplicable losses already and giving up 6 the other day????

[OnMAA]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

do the Olympians come back afterwards?

Typically not until the next season.

[TonyTheTiger20]

do the Olympians come back afterwards? I've been meaning to ask you w t f is up with the women's team? two inexplicable losses already and giving up 6 the other day????

The 8-6 game was weird as hell. It was a total blowout, 7-3 game with two minutes left. I've never seen 3 EAGs before.

I'm also concerned that the freshmen don't seem to be getting involved as much as they had earlier in the season.

[wwhyte]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

I'm also concerned that the freshmen don't seem to be getting involved as much as they had earlier in the season.

The freshman Ds have not been much involved to date -- there've been plenty of games where Wedell or Fish or both haven't even dressed. Anastos and Capizzano are both on the first two lines still, and Lemieux is acknowledged as a work in progress. So the main concern is that McLean hasn't been what we would have hoped given that she scored on almost her first shot of her first shift of her first game. She did dress for the Providence game on Sunday but I didn't see her on the ice much if at all. Before that she seemed to be pretty fully involved. So maybe she's a little injured at the moment, or maybe she's being rested a bit to encourage her to be more disciplined and take some fewer penalties.

They relied much more on the top three lines on Sunday than I'd seen previously, with Danielle Doherty replacing McLean on the line with Bizzari and Leary. Hopefully they'll get it figured out in time for the Quinnipiac series.

[wwhyte]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

New England Hockey Journal: Losses light fire under Eagles

Many women’s hockey fans have been asking, “What is wrong with BC?”, but this is still a well rounded team with a nice distribution of talented newcomers and experienced upperclassmen. Nothing’s wrong with them but early season finding of themselves.

[wwhyte]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

Since Vermont and Northeastern are two teams they definitely *do* need revenge on, I expect no slip-ups this weekend. My daughter and I will be stopping by the Vermont game on our way up to Lake Placid for the Four Nations final -- looking forward to it as it's the Pack the Gut night up there, so the atmosphere should be great. Anyone got any tips for visiting the Gutterson?

[TonyTheTiger20]

Since Vermont and Northeastern are two teams they definitely *do* need revenge on, I expect no slip-ups this weekend. My daughter and I will be stopping by the Vermont game on our way up to Lake Placid for the Four Nations final -- looking forward to it as it's the Pack the Gut night up there, so the atmosphere should be great. Anyone got any tips for visiting the Gutterson?

That depends -- how much do you object to people screaming obscenities at your daughter?

Just how much this Gutt actually gets Packed will determine a lot of things. How many people drop F bombs? How likely are their students to harass you? That sort of thing.

I did manage to go up to UVM for a men's game a few years back. Their students hold a UMass-ian reputation for being vulgar neanderthals. I was unsurprised to find that the reputation was warranted. Obviously if we're only talking a few hundred people here you aren't going to have this problem.

Outside of the arena, however, is one of the nicest towns and campuses I've ever road tripped to. Definitely enjoy that part.

[DC78-82]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

Since Vermont and Northeastern are two teams they definitely *do* need revenge on, I expect no slip-ups this weekend. My daughter and I will be stopping by the Vermont game on our way up to Lake Placid for the Four Nations final -- looking forward to it as it's the Pack the Gut night up there, so the atmosphere should be great. Anyone got any tips for visiting the Gutterson?

Check yer rep~

[DC78-82]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

Since Vermont and Northeastern are two teams they definitely *do* need revenge on, I expect no slip-ups this weekend. My daughter and I will be stopping by the Vermont game on our way up to Lake Placid for the Four Nations final -- looking forward to it as it's the Pack the Gut night up there, so the atmosphere should be great. Anyone got any tips for visiting the Gutterson?

The UVM parents are very nice, and I've not had the same experience as TTT. As for students - hard to say how many will show, or what behavior they will bring, but I would be surprised if they were as hostile and uncivilized as T3 experienced. The Gut is a nice old barn, and if you can get there early enough to hit the downtown waterfront area, all the better.

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Boston College Women's Hockey, '13-'14: Can we please have a title this time? Ple

I had no problem with the parents -- it was just the students. And my experience was at a men's game, not women's. So, again, really, it completely depends on how many students come to this Pack The Gutt thing. For a normal game I wouldn't have even said anything but given that you're bringing your young daughter and a lot of their students are apparently going to show I thought it worth bringing up.