Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

In that game, there was one. Players on the ice, people in the stands, and reporters after the game all made note of it.

As my father would tell me when I was a kid, "makes up for one of the other times you got away with it..."

And BU has certainly got away with it many, many times.

The other one I love is the BU extra time out, "the goalie equipment problem".

[Patman]

As my father would tell me when I was a kid, "makes up for one of the other times you got away with it..."

And BU has certainly got away with it many, many times.

The other one I love is the BU extra time out, "the goalie equipment problem".

BU and dislodged next were synonymous early last decade

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

BU and dislodged next were synonymous early last decade

And somehow when BU dislodged the net at Alfond, award-winning journalist Larry Mahoney found a way to blame it on the state legislature.

[mookie1995]

And somehow when BU dislodged the net at Alfond, award-winning journalist Larry Mahoney found a way to blame it on the state legislature.

I can buy that...

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

After Tue 2/19:
NU 5 @ UMA 4 OT

--- Home Lock - 37 (MC/BC/UNH/BU) ---
MC 27 - 39 [1-8]
BC 26 - 38 [1-8]
UNH 25 - 37 [1-8]
--- In - 25 (NU/UMA/ME) ---
BU 24 - 38 [1-9]
PC 24 - 36 [1-9]
UML 22 - 36 [1-10]
UVM 18 - 30 [1-10]
UMA 15 - 27 [3-10]
ME 14 - 26 [4-10]
--- Home Eligible - 25 (UNH/PC/UML) ---
NU 13 - 25 [5-10]
--- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
MC - BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
BC - @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
UNH - @UVMx2, UMAx2, MEx2
BU - UML/@UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
PC - NU/@NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
UML - @BU/BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
UVM - UNHx2, @BUx2, BCx2
UMA - MEx2, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
ME - @UMAx2, NUx2, @UNHx2
NU - @PC/PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU


After Tuesday night's NU/UMA game, now six of the last eight HE games (incl 2 x 7:30 starts on Fri) have gone to OT.

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Since both teams are involved in the Out benchmark, that line doesn't move.

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For the In line, however, with UMA losing, that looks to drop.

In fact with two points coming away from the indicator pair of UMA/ME, now the best that the lower of those two could do would be 24 (a 25/24 split). That would require Maine sweeping NU, so NU would Max at 21 in that setup. That would set the In line at 24 (with tbs) if we stuck with UMA/ME as the indicator.

However, since Maine plays both UMA and NU, the mark is a little higher if Maine loses to NU, allowing the Huskies to move up to their Max of 25, and UMA takes at least 2 from the Black Bears as well. That puts the In line at 25, with NU's Max.

Really, what matters as of today is whether NU can hit their Max (which takes Maine down), but since the three schools inter-play, I'll put all three up as the indicator to make it easier to keep that in mind.

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We have reached the point where the In and Home Eligible benchmarks have met and will soon draw closer as teams lock up playoff spots and jump over the In line.

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Speaking of which, has UNH clinched a spot at 25? Well, let's see if we can put them at 9th. If not, they're in.

UNH would have to lose out, which would bolster both UMA and Maine with four points each and give both schools the tb over UNH. But we know, from the UMA/ME discussion above, that only one of those schools could reach 25.

If Maine does it, that means they have taken down UMA and NU along the way and UNH is at least 8th, and in. So we can remove Maine from further discussion here.

So that means UNH has to worry about getting caught behind UMA and NU.

They win the tb w/ NU H2H, 2-0-1, so if that's the scenario: UMA above 25, UNH/NU at 25 (and Maine below after losing 4 pts to NU and 3/4 more to UMA), UNH is again at least 8th and in.

Which leaves us with UNH/UMA/NU all at 25. UNH: 0-3-0 (UMA) + 2-0-1 (NU) = 2-3-1. Hmmm. Sub-.500, but someone else could be as well and they don't need to pass both, just one. UMA: 3-0-0 (UNH) + 1-2-0 (NU) = 4-2-0. NU: 2-1-0 (UMA) + 0-2-1 (UNH) = 2-3-1.

In that case, UMA would get the top seed of the three and the other two would start over, which would come out in UNH's favor, as we've seen. So this round robin goes UMA/UNH/NU.

With Maine already below these three, UNH would have at least two schools below them. 8th, and in.

So, yes, by the skin of their pointy 'Cat teeth, UNH has wrapped up a spot. Welcome to the post-season, UNH!

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The flip side of that is that not only does UMA still have shot at Home Ice, they could still end up 3rd, solo.

[Jon]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

BU and dislodged next were synonymous early last decade

Best line from an NCAA Game:

A random UNH fan during a game in Worcester against Cornell: "Just because you dress like BU doesn't mean you can dislodge the net!" Tee hee.

[mookie1995]

Best line from an NCAA Game:

A random UNH fan during a game in Worcester against Cornell: "Just because you dress like BU doesn't mean you can dislodge the net!" Tee hee.

Please spell it correctly!! UHN

[CollegeHockeyRinkReport]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog....ce-maine-umass

An updated look at the remaining strength of schedules for each team, some thoughts and analysis and the "magic numbers" for clinching a playoff spot.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog....ce-maine-umass

An updated look at the remaining strength of schedules for each team, some thoughts and analysis and the "magic numbers" for clinching a playoff spot.

From the article:

* indicates team who owns the tie-breaker against 9th place Maine. It is a mere formality that PC and BU will make the playoffs as UMass and Maine have to play each other this weekend.

Except that if Maine loses that series, they - and each of BU and PC if either stays at 24 - could be caught by NU, who plays both PC and BU for a pair and would take tbs. Added to UMA, that could put either the Friars or Terriers in 9th at either 24 or 25 pts.

This weekend, BU and PC are both rooting for Maine to take enough points from UMA, that - combined with the pending ME/NU series - would clinch spots. Of course, they could just take points of their own in their respective quests for Home Ice and the playoff clinching will take care of itself.

Still, BU and PC making the playoffs is not "a mere formality... as UMass and Maine have to play each other this weekend", since that's not the only factor. It could all be moot by as soon as Friday night, but it's not a formality yet. If you're posting the link here, you'd think you would know that already from having read the rest of the thread - or even the one three posts below the link.

[Chuck Murray]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Predictions on what it will look like at the end of the regular season:

(1) UNH
(2) Boston College
(3) Merrimack
(4) Providence

(5) UMass Lowell
(6) Boston University
(7) Maine
(8) Vermont

(9) UMass-Amherst
(10) Northeastern

First round HE Playoffs:

UNH ekes past UVM 2-1
BC sweeps UMaine
Merrimack ekes past BU 2-1
UMass-Lowell upsets PC 2-1

Hockey East Final Four

UMass-Lowell upsets UNH
Merrimack upsets BC

Merrimack beats UMass-Lowell in OT to take their first-ever HE Tourney title

Postscript: Four (4) Hockey East teams advance to the NCAA's ... BU and Providence end up on the outside looking in.

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

After Fri 2/22:
UNH 4 @ UVM 3
UML 3 @ BU 0
NU 2 @ PC 6
ME 2 @ UMA 0

--- Home Lock - 36 (Top 6) ---
MC 27 - 39 [1-7]
UNH 27 - 37 [1-7]
BC 26 - 38 [1-8]
PC 26 - 36 [1-7]
BU 24 - 36 [1-8]
--- In - 24 (UMA/ME) ---
UML 24 - 36 [1-9]
UVM 18 - 28 [3-10]
--- Home Eligible - 28 (Top 6) ---
ME 16 - 26 [5-10]
UMA 15 - 25 [5-10]
NU 13 - 23 [7-10]
--- Out - 17 (UMA/ME/NU) ---

Remaining LEAGUE storm-adjusted schedules:
MC - BC, @BU, @UML/UML, UMA/@UMA
UNH - @UVM, UMAx2, MEx2
BC - @MC, UML, PC/@PC, @UVMx2
PC - @NU, @BC/BC, @UML/UML
BU - @UML, MC, UVMx2, @NU/NU
UML - BU, @BC, MC/@MC, PC/@PC
UVM - UNH, @BUx2, BCx2
ME - @UMA, NUx2, @UNHx2
UMA - ME, @UNHx2, @MC/MC
NU - PC, @MEx2, BU/@BU


Odd, for this time of year, but the top two coming into the weekend, MC and BC, have Friday and Saturday off. However, also unusually, they were originally scheduled for a one-off H2H on Sunday and each has a Nemo reschedule on Tuesday (MC @ BU, BC v UML), so they will still play two before next weekend. Sure, they will be playing their Tuesday foes on only two days' rest, but BU and UML will have played each other for a Fri-Sat H&H, which looks to be fairly physical, based on Friday's meetup.

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Three of four home teams lost, two by shutout.

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With the standings so close, there was a lot of leapfrogging Friday night. Jump by jump, here's how things shifted...

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UNH hops over BC into a tie with MC for 1st place, but MC has the tb (2-1-0) for the top seed, and a game-in-hand.

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PC hops over BU and into a tie with BC for 3rd, with the pair currently positioned in the latter two Home Ice slots. They are currently 0-0-1 H2H, so their pair next weekend has huge post-season seeding ramifications. I believe that NESN picked this as their first wildcard game at the end of the season, so... whether due to luck, logistics, or deeply-knowledgeable foresight () - at least on this weekend - good call, NESN. Perhaps in PC's favor is that BC will have played two games (Sun/Tue) while PC has been recuperating from their weeknd with NU. If Saturday turns out like Friday, PC may have an even easier time shaking off this weekend and turning their focus to the Eagles.

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UML draws even with BU and takes the season tb, with a 2-0-0 lead with one to play tonight. That would put UML 5th and BU 6th if the seedings were done today. The opponent seedings would await the outcome of the BC/PC series next weekend. Considering that these two are collectively 1-4-0 against BC (BU:1-2-0, UML: 0-2-0 with Tues pending), yet 3-0-1 against PC (BU:2-0-1, UML 1-0-0, final w/e pending), those potential pairings could be even more important for the visitor than for the host.

That leaves us with the possible situation of teams being better off on paper on the final weekend by possibly tanking a game in order to get the "right" QF match-up, esp w/ UML facing PC directly. If, heading into the final game, UML is: 0-3-0 vs BC, 2-0-0 vs PC, locked out of Home Ice themselves, and looking facing either PC or BC - would they risk playing with the points in order to face a more favorable opponent?

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One should also consider that if PC does host, as discussed recently, their rink construction cuts their capacity down to a fire-marshal-limited 2089 from its seated, structural 3030. Better get in line behind Mookie, because getting a ticket to get in will be tight. Once in, however, you'll have plenty of seats to choose from.

Given history as a guide, the Vegas odds would put a PC/BU QF matchup a very limited payout (due to its near assumption coming into any season). I think the Vegas board has it at PC/BU QF 1:1, PC/non-BU and BU/non-PC 6:5, but that was before last night.

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UVM's loss and UML's win creates some separation that has UVM metaphorically hanging off the edge, grip starting to slip. Another blow like that and the next time we see UVM will be from the overhead crane shot as they free-fall - wide-eyed, limbs flailing, vocalizing despair - back into the abyss that is "the fight for staying out of the basement" with ME/UMA/NU.

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Maine hops over UMA and tentatively into the last playoff spot.

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How did the lines and seed ranges move?

On the low end, NU's Max drops to 23 and after tonight, one of the ME/UMA Maxes will be no higher than 24, so the In line drops to 24 (w/ tbs) and NU is not a factor for the moment.

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With UMA's Max drop from 27 to 25 and ME's already at 26, that puts idle MC and now UNH, both at 27, now no lower than 7th.

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PC's win brings them over the old line of 25, let alone 24, so they are in. The Friars are the 4th team into the playoffs. Congrats!

What about BC and PC at 26, and ME's Max at 26?

PCs 2-0-1 vs the Black Bears gives them the H2H tb. Their favorable-enough record against anyone else that might get thrown into a round-robin at 26 (both are 0-2-1 vs BU; either PC would beat UML - taking the 3-way RRR - split with UML - kicking ME out the bottom of the RRR - or would lose to UML - giving UML the advantage to win the RR and drop it back to PC/ME H2H; etc.) assures them that they cannot be passed by ME, which means that PC can be no lower than 7th.

BC, however loses the H2H tb (1-2-0) w/ ME, so they could still be 8th.

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Similarly, how do things look at the new In line of 24 for BU and UML?

Well, BU wins either H2H with ME (2-0-1) or UMA (2-1-0), but they would lose the tb w/ UVM (1-2-0) if they stayed at 24.

UML wins UMA (3-0-0) and UVM (2-0-1), but loses to ME (1-2-0).

Since they still face each other once more, we can't have both BU and UML at 24, since at least one of them has to get points tonight. That makes their records H2H moot here.

The easier of the two is UML. Since UMA could win out and Max at 25, ME could win all-but-tonight and hit 24 and UVM could be above 24, that means UML could be in a H2H with ME at 8/9. Since UML would lose that, they have not clinched yet.

For BU, it's a little more involved, they would win either H2H or a 3-way RR with ME/UMA.

They would lose the tb to UVM, but couldn't be in a H2H w/ UVM at 24 for 8/9. Either UMA and/or ME (and NU, whose Max is now 23) would have to be below them or involved in the tie.

In a 3-way with BU/UVM/ME, BU's 1-2-0 w/ UVM is still better than ME's 0-2-1, so that would fall UVM/BU/ME.

With BU/UVM/UMA, however, they would all end up 3-3-0. That would go to 2nd tb (wins) and BU and UMA would be locked in higher than UVM (2 ties vs UVMs 6 already, plus maybe more), so UVM would lose the RR and BU beats UMA H2H.

Adding ME to a 4-way RR only helps BU, so in any config at 24, BU isn't last (and NU is behind).

Therefore BU becomes our 5th team in the playoffs. Congrats, Terriers!

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With the interlocking schedules, Home Eligible is now 28, which drops ME and UMA out of contention and leaves UVM on the bubble.

In fact, those same schedules leave UVM no higher than 3rd.

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NU is now 7th, at best.

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Home Lock moves down to 36

[Patronick]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

If Home Lock is 36, shouldn't UML be above the line?

[WarriorDJ]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Merrimack beats UMass-Lowell in OT to take their first-ever HE Tourney title.

I like your optimism - we will keep you in mind as we search for a new AD

[mookie1995]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

If Home Lock is 36, shouldn't UML be above the line?

you need a 'todd's who's in who's out guide for dummies'?

[CollegeHockeyRinkReport]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

http://www.westerncollegehockeyblog....y-lowell-maine