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Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was In)

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  • #1

    Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was In)

    Moving right (or left) along...

    Our last post was by the Bard of Ithaca:
    I don't think anybody but Rover has said that. We know any election can go either way in this environment. Even if the GOP had every bad break and made every bad decision from now until November they would at the VERY worst lose by no more than about 12 points. Things can happen inside a 6-point gap, and that's what the election will likely be.

    The presidential vote for Indiana 2008 is all anybody needs to remember. If you reran that 100 times McCain would win 99 of them. Lightning can strike.
    CCT '77 & '78
    4 kids
    5 grandsons (BCA 7/09, CJA 5/14, JDL 8/14, JFL 6/16, PJL 7/18)
    1 granddaughter (EML 4/18)

    ”Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
    - Benjamin Franklin

    Banned from the St. Lawrence University Facebook page - March 2016 (But I got better).

    I want to live forever. So far, so good.
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  • #2
    Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

    Very nice title.
    Cornell University
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    • #3
      Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

      Originally posted by joecct View Post
      Moving right (or left) along...

      Our last post was by the Bard of Ithaca:
      Out of curiosity what does make Indian the South of the North? It's region (old Big Ten country) is mostly lean Blue with one swing state in Ohio? Why does Indiana pull so far to the right?

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

        Originally posted by BoomGoestheDynamite View Post
        Out of curiosity what does make Indian the South of the North? It's region (old Big Ten country) is mostly lean Blue with one swing state in Ohio? Why does Indiana pull so far to the right?
        My completely uninformed guess is: no big cities. I suspect rural IN is exactly like rural OH or PA or IL. There's just more of it.
        Cornell University
        National Champion 1967, 1970
        ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
        Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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        • #5
          Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

          Originally posted by BoomGoestheDynamite View Post
          Out of curiosity what does make Indian the South of the North? It's region (old Big Ten country) is mostly lean Blue with one swing state in Ohio? Why does Indiana pull so far to the right?
          I have never lived in Indiana, but areas in the south along the Ohio river have a decided southern flavor. Wendell Berry, who writes so eloquently about rural life in northern Kentucky just across the Ohio from Indiana, portrays the rural, tobacco farming culture of fictional Port William (Port Royal, Ky) in ways similar to what Faulkner did with Mississippi, though with a softer stroke. He does this in multiple books over decades, and Port Royal has doubtless changed, but he describes a place and people that could be in Alabama.

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          • #6
            Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

            Originally posted by joecct View Post
            Moving right (or left) along...

            Our last post was by the Bard of Ithaca:
            Heh. "Bard of Ithaca" is good.

            I will say it since others won't. Trump is screwed. If he's losing young voters, women, college educated voters, and minorities, who the fuk else is left? Old white non-college educated males and maybe their wives.

            However, a 12% loss is a bit absurd. Trump most likely goes down by Obama-McCain like margins.
            Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

            Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

            "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

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            • #7
              Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

              Originally posted by Rover View Post
              However, a 12% loss is a bit absurd. Trump most likely goes down by Obama-McCain like margins.
              Probably. I was trying to find the Worst Case for him (and the Best Case for the rest of the universe). Obama beat McCain by 7.2%. If I had to make a spread on this election I would start it at Clinton -8 and let it float.
              Cornell University
              National Champion 1967, 1970
              ECAC Champion 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1980, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2010
              Ivy League Champion 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1977, 1978, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1996, 1997, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2012, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2020

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              • #8
                Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                People don't get that David Duke would draw 45% of the vote as the Republican nominee. Problem is the expanding voting pool. 12 years ago Bush's 62M votes were good for a solid 51% of the electorate. McCain only drew about 2M less votes but that 60M got him 46% or so. Romney's 61M votes earned him 47% of the (smaller than 2008) electorate.

                So, even getting back up to Bush in 2004 vote totals will no longer get Trump to 50%. Not even close. The new voters coming in aren't voting GOP, most likely because they're younger and less white.
                Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                  Originally posted by Rover View Post
                  People don't get that David Duke would draw 45% of the vote as the Republican nominee. Problem is the expanding voting pool. 12 years ago Bush's 62M votes were good for a solid 51% of the electorate. McCain only drew about 2M less votes but that 60M got him 46% or so. Romney's 61M votes earned him 47% of the (smaller than 2008) electorate.

                  So, even getting back up to Bush in 2004 vote totals will no longer get Trump to 50%. Not even close. The new voters coming in aren't voting GOP, most likely because they're younger and less white.
                  People don't get that people hate Hillary and the FBI just called her a liar. People don't get that if the hated of these two clowns reaches the levels it's bound to folks will stay home. People don't get that the more people stay home the better chance the Orange Buffoon will win.
                  **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                  Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                  Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                    Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                    People don't get that people hate Hillary and the FBI just called her a liar. People don't get that if the hated of these two clowns reaches the levels it's bound to folks will stay home. People don't get that the more people stay home the better chance the Orange Buffoon will win.
                    People also don't get there are more Dem leaners than Republican leaners so Trump needs not an equal # of people staying home, but a lot more Dems than Republicans. Some people are still living in the 80's where Republicans had a turnout advantage, and refuse to believe the world changed some 24 years ago when Dems starting outvoting Republicans in Presidential races 5 out of the next 6 times. These people also tend to have a weird fascination with Republican politicians from Wisconsin...



                    For you nervous nellies out there...

                    https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/13...battlegrounds/
                    Legally drunk???? If its "legal", what's the ------- problem?!? - George Carlin

                    Ever notice how everybody who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everybody who drives faster is a maniac? - George Carlin

                    "I've never seen so much reason and bullsh*t contained in ONE MAN."

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                      Originally posted by Rover View Post
                      People also don't get there are more Dem leaners than Republican leaners so Trump needs not an equal # of people staying home, but a lot more Dems than Republicans. Some people are still living in the 80's where Republicans had a turnout advantage, and refuse to believe the world changed some 24 years ago when Dems starting outvoting Republicans in Presidential races 5 out of the next 6 times. These people also tend to have a weird fascination with Republican politicians from Wisconsin...



                      For you nervous nellies out there...

                      https://politicalwire.com/2016/07/13...battlegrounds/
                      She'll go in as the weakest President on inauguration day in US History. And that power will recede over time.
                      **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                      Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                      Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                        Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                        She'll go in as the weakest President on inauguration day in US History. And that power will recede over time.
                        Compared to the prospect of Trump putting justices on the SCOTUS, these are small problems.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                          Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                          People don't get that people hate Hillary and the FBI just called her a liar. People don't get that if the hated of these two clowns reaches the levels it's bound to folks will stay home. People don't get that the more people stay home the better chance the Orange Buffoon will win.
                          < ding! >

                          This election is about turnout: who shows up.
                          Obama mobilized and energized people and they showed up. I don't see that happening for Hillary; by comparison she's not that inspiring.

                          What I see it coming down to is this:
                          Who can mobilize more of the "get out and vote against" vote.

                          A lot of folks don't like Trump; is it enough ire to go and vote against him?
                          A lot of folks don't like Clinton; is it enough ire to go and vote against her?
                          And it's not just the ire, it's the follow-through action to vote.
                          The preceding post may contain trigger words and is not safe-space approved. <-- Virtue signaling.

                          North Dakota Hockey:

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                          • #14
                            Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                            Originally posted by GrinCDXX View Post
                            As long as Trump isn't putting justices on the SCOTUS.
                            Yeah, that appears to be the automatic legacy of a Hillary Clinton Presidency. She will accomplish nothing else.
                            **NOTE: The misleading post above was brought to you by Reynold's Wrap and American Steeples, makers of Crosses.

                            Originally Posted by dropthatpuck-Scooby's a lost cause.
                            Originally Posted by First Time, Long Time-Always knew you were nothing but a troll.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: Campaign 2016 Part XIV: Just Dropped in (To See What Condition My Convention Was

                              Originally posted by ScoobyDoo View Post
                              She'll go in as the weakest President on inauguration day in US History. And that power will recede over time.
                              Wow. Twice in a day I've agreed with Scoob.

                              New. League. Record.
                              The preceding post may contain trigger words and is not safe-space approved. <-- Virtue signaling.

                              North Dakota Hockey:

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