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bladesofsteel
10-01-2010, 08:00 AM
It's that time of year to talk about ncha hockey. St norbs will be the favorite who's next? Uwsp should be stronger this year and could be in the mix. Uwrf returns the leagues top scorers in calleja, brossman with the loss of czuba. St scho? Uws? Stout? Uwec?

snc1
10-01-2010, 08:15 AM
it would be tough predicting the order of the league until we know the fate of stout

Wormser-PointRC
10-01-2010, 09:36 AM
My prediction:

1. SNC
2. UWRF
3. UWSP/UWS
4. UWS/UWSP
5. CSS
6. Stout (This is where I had them in July)
7. UWEC

NorthernLite
10-01-2010, 11:03 AM
My prediction:

1. SNC
2. UWRF
3. UWSP/UWS
4. UWS/UWSP
5. CSS
6. Stout (This is where I had them in July)
7. UWEC


I realize predicting NCHA top to bottom is a crapshoot beyond perennial favourite SNC.
The Blugolds will visit Adrian for the Thanksgiving Invitational and I'm curious about your pre-season assumptions for positioning them at the bottom of the NCHA pack. Are they the obvious "doormat" this year ....or is there little to chose in the order of finish between the NCHA's #'s 4-7 ?

gojackets
10-01-2010, 12:36 PM
I realize predicting NCHA top to bottom is a crapshoot beyond perennial favourite SNC.
The Blugolds will visit Adrian for the Thanksgiving Invitational and I'm curious about your pre-season assumptions for positioning them at the bottom of the NCHA pack. Are they the obvious "doormat" this year ....or is there little to chose in the order of finish between the NCHA's #'s 4-7 ?

Not to speak for Wormser, at this point I'd probably put Stout last because of the turmoil they are going thru. But CSS, Stout, Eau Claire would be my bottom 3. Remember however that the last place team in the NCHA is probably 1 or 2 in the MCHA....not trying to start a flamefest, but now that Lake Forest is gone...The NCHA is solid top to bottom.

XYZ
10-01-2010, 01:32 PM
I realize predicting NCHA top to bottom is a crapshoot beyond perennial favourite SNC.
The Blugolds will visit Adrian for the Thanksgiving Invitational and I'm curious about your pre-season assumptions for positioning them at the bottom of the NCHA pack. Are they the obvious "doormat" this year ....or is there little to chose in the order of finish between the NCHA's #'s 4-7 ?

Eau Claire has improved significantly under Matt Loen (and Luke Strand before him), but as the rest of the league has as well over that same span it's tough to rationalize moving them up ahead of anyone else in a predictive sense.

The Blugolds are far from a doormat, however. Very solid defensively but have had some struggles scoring at times which is partly why we haven't seen them make a leap in the NCHA standings. That should be a very interesting game over in Adrian as, again, Eau Claire is far from a pushover.

snc1
10-01-2010, 02:07 PM
1. SNC 2. UWRF 3. UWSP 4. CSS 5. UWS 6. UWEC 7. STOUT (t.k.o.) I fealt STOUT did a decent job of recuiting and would have been solid this year (3rd), but team won't be mentally tough enough to handle the NCHA schedule this year. ( Assuming they play their schedule this year.)

pete99race
10-01-2010, 02:14 PM
1 -- SNC
2 -- River
3 -- Point (Assuming they cut down on their penalties). If not they drop a postion or two.
4 -- CSS
5 -- Sup
6 -- Stout
7 -- EC.

NorthernLite
10-01-2010, 02:55 PM
Eau Claire has improved significantly under Matt Loen, but as the rest of the league has as well over that same span it's tough to rationalize moving them up ahead of anyone else in a predictive sense.

The Blugolds are far from a doormat, however. Very solid defensively but have had some struggles scoring at times which is partly why we haven't seen them make a leap in the NCHA standings. That should be a very interesting game over in Adrian as, again, Eau Claire is far from a pushover.

The only thing I know about Eau Claire is that I have rarely been able to correctly predict their wins and losses in the Pickem pool. They seem to compete hard against everybody, including SNC. It's a pretty good indicator that they are well coached, ......which is why I'm a bit surprised they seem to be the consensus pick for last place.

Fritz62
10-01-2010, 06:11 PM
Last year Eau Claire seemed very young and not prepared mentally. For the games I saw they were either skating amazingly or playing like garbage. Looking at their roster from last year 11 were freshman and 4 were sophomores. If they can play with consistency they will do well, however if they have have off nights they will not do too well.

As for my Predictions:
1. SNC
2. Point
3. River
4. CSS
5. EC
6. Soup
7. Stout*

*This is contingent upon how the team handles the current situation. I would put Stout as high as three as teams 3-7 are all good match-ups and the only teams I would really like to avoid, especially at home (where we play both at home twice) are SNC and Point

Collegeman
10-01-2010, 06:24 PM
Having watched the league now for a few years would you all say that NCHA is the toughest league in DIII. I really wish in more preseason games you could see these teams crossover into other eastern leagues to see how they would do.

Just seems any night most teams can beat each other. The quality of players seems very high. I watch the other leagues and one maybe 2 of the teams in a league will be very competetive nationally but no other league seems to have the depth that this league has, you gotta come out skating hard every night or you will get beat. I know some years there are exceptions but consistantly the parity of the NCHA is there. It appears that many of these NCHA teams would do very well if they played in another league where in the NCHA they may end up middle of the pack.

Fritz62
10-01-2010, 06:38 PM
For the Western teams the NCHA is the toughest and most competitive league hands down. There may be the perennial power however even they can be beat any given night and most teams keep up with them.

Nationally I think we could keep up but is a different story entirely. I think we could keep up and be very competitive however there are not enough crossovers until tournament time.

altazo
10-01-2010, 07:50 PM
Having watched the league now for a few years would you all say that NCHA is the toughest league in DIII. I really wish in more preseason games you could see these teams crossover into other eastern leagues to see how they would do.


I agree that the NCHA may be one of the toughest leagues in all of D3, however there have been cross over games almost every season between NCHA teams and stronger eastern teams. The NCHA certainly doesn't dominate the stronger Eastern teams but has also won some big games, particularly in NCAA's.

LonelyStoutFan
10-01-2010, 08:11 PM
If Stout isn't allowed to play this year, does the NCHA lose its AQ since it will only have 6 teams?

NUProf
10-01-2010, 08:41 PM
If Stout isn't allowed to play this year, does the NCHA lose its AQ since it will only have 6 teams?

There is a very good chance that that will happen, but if that would happen, there should be 2 Pool B bids to be allocated to the NCHA, ECAC West, and MASCAC teams.

joecct
10-01-2010, 08:59 PM
There is a very good chance that that will happen, but if that would happen, there should be 2 Pool B bids to be allocated to the NCHA, ECAC West, and MASCAC teams.I thought you kept the AQ (2 years??) if your membership dropped to 6 or less. Let me check the D-III manual, if I can find it on the new fangled NCAA site.

EDIT: Found it!

31.3.2.1.3 Grace Period. A period for two consecutive academic years after the date the conference falls
below the seven required institutions but maintains at least four institutions [They must be core institutions
for multisport conferences.], in the particular sport. Continued automatic-qualification eligibility shall be
as follows: (Adopted: 1/9/06 effective 8/1/06, Revised: 4/19/06, 5/5/06, 4/13/10)
(a) A conference shall remain eligible for automatic qualification in the particular sport if, by the expiration
of the grace period, the conference has a minimum of seven institutions [For multisport conferences,
at least four shall be core institutions.] that sponsor the sport on a varsity intercollegiate basis
and that are eligible for the NCAA Division III championship.
(b) A conference that fails to satisfy 31.3.2.1.3-(a) by the expiration of the grace period shall no longer
be eligible for automatic qualification in the particular sport until it again satisfies all requirements
for automatic qualification, including the two-year waiting period set forth in Bylaw 31.3.2.1.1-(a)
and 31.3.2.1.2-(b).

XYZ
10-01-2010, 11:06 PM
For the Western teams the NCHA is the toughest and most competitive league hands down. There may be the perennial power however even they can be beat any given night and most teams keep up with them.

Nationally I think we could keep up but is a different story entirely. I think we could keep up and be very competitive however there are not enough crossovers until tournament time.

Not to do cartwheels on the "which conference is best" third rail again, but the key with the NCHA is the depth.

While the league might not have a team in a given year that is capable of running roughshod to the national title, the teams down in the 4-7 range are awfully good. Without being biased, I've seen enough to firmly believe that if you put the 4-7th NCHA teams in a given year up against the equivalent from another league, the NCHA would fare extremely well in the long run.

This is why we've seen the NCHA dominate the MIAC in recent years. I believe most people's perception of the MIAC is misguided - it's a better league than most give it credit for - but a lot of that stems from its poor record against the NCHA as of late. The NCHA doesn't roll up that record against the top three teams in the MIAC...but rather, it's because the rest of the MIAC has been getting hammered by those 3/4-7 NCHA teams.

Look at the predictions in this thread alone. SNC is a clear frontrunner, but 2-7 are literally wide open, which speaks to the depth. Things are so tight there it's the little things that make a giant difference when all is said and done (and let's assume Stout plays):

Stout: Will be younger, but the recruits are solid, especially the last four announced. Can it recapture the lightning of 07-08 and 08-09?
Point: Has the talent, but can they stay out of the box and put it all together? If so, could easily make a run.
Falls: Resurgent last year to the surprise of some. Lose a bit but likely aren't going to be any worse.
Eau Claire: A year older and wiser. Can they find a bit of scoring?
Superior: Lose some scoring, but some nice recruits including a NAHL workhorse in net. If someone steps up in net and others pick up the Wilson, Isley, etc. scoring slack...lookout.
Scholastica: Also lost some key pieces, but they execute extremely well and appearto have reloaded. Don't sleep on Dawes as a bonafide potential NCHA POTY.

That's quite general, but when you look at something like Stout gelling (again), Point finding some magic mix of grit and discipline, Scholastica's newcomers quickly adapting to a proven system, Superior finding just a few more pieces, Eau Claire maybe getting a few big wins early and believing...the margin for error is so tight. Those are such small and unpredictable things in a way. Any could finish 2nd...or 7th, and someone could rise up and unseat SNC. It's happened before. And again, the predictions here from people who know what they are talking about reflect that.

It's not the top team or two that makes the NCHA as tough as it is...it's the rest of them.

gojackets
10-02-2010, 04:57 AM
If Stout isn't allowed to play this year, does the NCHA lose its AQ since it will only have 6 teams?

Maybe I'm dumb but i don't see it as Stout not existing, but stout forefitting, totally spelled wrong, its games. So in that sense Stout still exists, but they don't win.

NUProf
10-02-2010, 07:55 PM
Maybe I'm dumb but i don't see it as Stout not existing, but stout forefitting, totally spelled wrong, its games. So in that sense Stout still exists, but they don't win.

More likely they wouldn't play, because for forfeiting would cost each NCHA team 3 games and reduce their season to 22 games. joecct found the reference on the NCAA website which says that the NCHA would get a waiver this year (and next, too).

joecct
10-02-2010, 08:26 PM
More likely they wouldn't play, because for forfeiting would cost each NCHA team 3 games and reduce their season to 22 games. joecct found the reference on the NCAA website which says that the NCHA would get a waiver this year (and next, too).Forgive me Prof, but wouln't a forfeit give a team a W, not a DNP? I leave it to the math and stat major to explain the effect of an 0-25 opponent on your OWP and OOWP.