New Poll Predictions for 2/22

[PrezdeJohnson09]

1.Norwich
2.Oswego
3.St. Norbert
4.Plattsburgh
5.Middlebury
6.Gustavus Adolphus
7.Williams
8.St. Scholastica
9.Hamline
10.Elmira
11.Adrian
12.Bowdoin
13.Amherst
14.Manhattanville
15.River Falls

Not too many changes. I thought about dropping Elmira to #12 but kept them at #10.

[jimmy d]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

In light of this:

Middlebury vs Plattsburgh WIN 0.7619 1 0.7600 0 OWP 0.5486 0 0.5785 1 OOP 0.5253 1 0.5143 0 H2H 1- 1- 0 0 1- 1- 0 0 COP 3- 1- 1 1 3- 1- 2 0 RNK 6- 2- 2 1 4- 4- 3 0 ============================================ PTS 4 1 ============================================ PWR 15 12

and this:

7 Middlebury* 21 14- 3- 4 0.7619 7 | 0.5433 9 | 0.5192 9 | 6- 2- 2 0.7000 5 8 Gustavus Adolphus* 25 18- 5- 2 0.7600 8 | 0.5042 35 | 0.4950 47 | 4- 2- 0 0.6667 7 9 Plattsburgh* 25 17- 4- 4 0.7600 8 | 0.5762 2 | 0.5103 23 | 4- 4- 3 0.5000 12



Is there any good reason why Plattsburgh should still be ahead of Middlebury?

[aerogroup2]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

In light of this:

Middlebury vs Plattsburgh WIN 0.7619 1 0.7600 0 OWP 0.5486 0 0.5785 1 OOP 0.5253 1 0.5143 0 H2H 1- 1- 0 0 1- 1- 0 0 COP 3- 1- 1 1 3- 1- 2 0 RNK 6- 2- 2 1 4- 4- 3 0 ============================================ PTS 4 1 ============================================ PWR 15 12

and this:

7 Middlebury* 21 14- 3- 4 0.7619 7 | 0.5433 9 | 0.5192 9 | 6- 2- 2 0.7000 5 8 Gustavus Adolphus* 25 18- 5- 2 0.7600 8 | 0.5042 35 | 0.4950 47 | 4- 2- 0 0.6667 7 9 Plattsburgh* 25 17- 4- 4 0.7600 8 | 0.5762 2 | 0.5103 23 | 4- 4- 3 0.5000 12



Is there any good reason why Plattsburgh should still be ahead of Middlebury?

Nope!

[Frazier]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

1.Oswego
2.Norwich
3.St. Norbert
4.Plattsburgh
5.Middlebury
6.Gustavus Adolphus
7.Williams
8.St. Scholastica
9.Adrian
10.Hamline
11.Bowdoin
12.Elmira
13.Amherst
14.River Falls
15.Manhattanville

I think that Geneseo's win over Oswego improves the overall strength of the SUNYAC conference a little bit (refer to the NCHA effect). This should keep Plattsburgh ahead of Middlebury and does not hurt Oswego as much as might be suspected. I will be surprised if Norwich is ranked #1 as the selection committee has not been hasty in the past but expect it to be close. I agree with 12th for Elmira although I think your 10th is a better prediction. I think that Adrian will move forward by default. Amherst was hard to place. Same record as Middlebury but recently have been sliding.

Thanks

[NUProf]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

I think that Geneseo's win over Oswego improves the overall strength of the SUNYAC conference a little bit (refer to the NCHA effect).

Err... no.

The SOS of the other two teams is totally unaffected by this. Geneseo's WP goes up, Oswego's WP goes down. Since each team in the league has played both teams twice, the net result is nothing. The only way that this would change anything would be to improve the SOS for teams that played Geneseo in an extra NC game and deflate the SOS for any team that played Oswego in an extra NC game. The net result of all league games is exactly 0.500 in a league that plays a balanced schedule.

This should keep Plattsburgh ahead of Middlebury and does not hurt Oswego as much as might be suspected. I will be surprised if Norwich is ranked #1 as the selection committee has not been hasty in the past but expect it to be close. I agree with 12th for Elmira although I think your 10th is a better prediction. I think that Adrian will move forward by default.

Thanks

This has nothing to do with the selection committee. They are supposed to look at the data - This poll is coaches and media types voting. Some of them may switch their #1 vote from Oswego to NU, and some of them won't. My guess Oswego will still be #1, but it will be close.

[Frazier]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

Err... no.

The SOS of the other two teams is totally unaffected by this. Geneseo's WP goes up, Oswego's WP goes down. Since each team in the league has played both teams twice, the net result is nothing. The only way that this would change anything would be to improve the SOS for teams that played Geneseo in an extra NC game and deflate the SOS for any team that played Oswego in an extra NC game. The net result of all league games is exactly 0.500 in a league that plays a balanced schedule.



This has nothing to do with the selection committee. They are supposed to look at the data - This poll is coaches and media types voting. Some of them may switch their #1 vote from Oswego to NU, and some of them won't. My guess Oswego will still be #1, but it will be close.

I get the closed system SOS part of in-conference play and was referring to the coaches/media type poll and how Geneseo's win might influence the pollsters perceptions. Sorry I used the wrong terminology by calling it a selection committee. I have learned that these weekly rankings have as much to do with perceptions as with data.

Previously the SUNYAC could be perceived as a couple of strong teams with another reasonably good team, a number of mediocre teams and several weak teams. The pollsters probably surmised that it was not that hard to obtain a strong SUNYAC in-conferece record under those conditions.

Geneseo's win over #1 Oswego may have altered those perceptions a bit. It now appears as if there may be 4 strong SUNYAC teams, arguably 5. My guess is that this new awareness may translate into added "perceptual" weight placed on strong in-conference records, benefiting SUNYAC teams like Plattsburgh and Fredonia.
But what do I know, probably over thinking it
Rookie

[Ozz]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

I get the closed system SOS part of in-conference play and was referring to the coaches/media type poll and how Geneseo's win might influence the pollsters perceptions. Sorry I used the wrong terminology by calling it a selection committee. I have learned that these weekly rankings have as much to do with perceptions as with data.

Previously the SUNYAC could be perceived as a couple of strong teams with another reasonably good team, a number of mediocre teams and several weak teams. The pollsters probably surmised that it was not that hard to obtain a strong SUNYAC in-conferece record under those conditions.

Geneseo's win over #1 Oswego may have altered those perceptions a bit. It now appears as if there may be 4 strong SUNYAC teams, arguably 5. My guess is that this new awareness may translate into added "perceptual" weight placed on strong in-conference records, benefiting SUNYAC teams like Plattsburgh and Fredonia.
But what do I know, probably over thinking it
Rookie

It's going to take more than one win for that perception to change. It's going to take a strong, consistent 2-3 years from a program to change that perception.

[jabber811]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

1. Norwich
2. Oswego
3. St Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gust Adolphus
7. St Scholastica
8. Williams
9. Hamline
10. Adrian
11. Bowdoin
12. Elmira
13. Amherst
14. Wis River Falls
15. Manhattanville

Others receiving votes: Neumann, Fredonia, Wentworth, Marian

[oldguard]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

1. Norwich
2. Oswego
3. St Norbert
4. Plattsburgh
5. Middlebury
6. Gust Adolphus
7. St Scholastica
8. Williams
9. Hamline
10. Adrian
11. Bowdoin
12. Elmira
13. Amherst
14. Wis River Falls
15. Manhattanville

Others receiving votes: Neumann, Fredonia, Wentworth, Marian

Jabber, I realize this is your prediction of how the poll will go, not necessarily your rankings, but still, how can Adrian be ranked so high. They have the 58th ranked SOS and a record of 0-3-0 against ranked teams. In my opinion, GA and Hamline are too high also, with SOS rankings of 42 and 35 respectively. Just venting, I know, "It is just an opinion poll".

[one_to7]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

Ever seen any of those three play?

[NorthernLite]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

.........., but still, how can Adrian be ranked so high. They have the 58th ranked SOS and a record of 0-3-0 against ranked teams. In my opinion, GA and Hamline are too high also, with SOS rankings of 42 and 35 respectively. Just venting, I know, "It is just an opinion poll".

Good for you venting.....you've got the drift .....that's all it is .....but more importantly it's an opinion poll where your opinion means squat.

[oldguard]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

Ever seen any of those three play?

No, I have not and I certainly was not trying to knock the quality of the teams or their players. As with most posters on this forum, I only get to see a few teams and usually those I am most familiar with. So all I have to go on to form an opinion for teams I have not seen is their records and the quality of their oponents. Based on that, I still stand by my earlier opinion.

Even if I had been able to observe each of the teams in the poll, I certainly would not have been able to see them play each other. Given how differently a team can look depending on who they are playing that day, I am not convinced that seeing them play makes a person a much better judge of their relative talent level. As someone keeps saying, Bill Parcells maybe, "we are what our record says we are".

[cetihcra]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

Here you go:

USCHO.com Division III Men's Poll

February 22, 2010
	Team	(First Place Votes)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Norwich	(11)	20-1-4	291	2
2	Oswego	( 7)	23-2-0	284	1
3	St. Norbert	( 2)	19-3-3	264	3
4	Plattsburgh		17-4-4	241	4
5	Middlebury		16-4-4	207	6
6	St. Scholastica		17-4-6	187	5
7	Gustavus Adolphus		18-5-2	178	7
8	Williams		15-5-3	136	8
9	Hamline		16-5-4	128	8
10	Bowdoin		17-5-1	122	12
11	Elmira		17-7-1	94	10
12	Adrian		22-3-0	86	11
13	Amherst		16-4-4	76	13
14	Manhattanville		18-6-1	48	14
15	Wis.-River Falls		17-8-2	39	15
Others Receiving Votes: Fredonia 9, Wentworth 4, Marian 3, Neumann 2, Hamilton 1

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=uscho3m&week=poll#ixzz0gIZV0pve

It's nice, albeit meaningless, that both my teams are numero uno.

r

[NUProf]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

Here you go:

USCHO.com Division III Men's Poll

February 22, 2010
	Team	(First Place Votes)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Norwich	(11)	20-1-4	291	2
2	Oswego	( 7)	23-2-0	284	1
3	St. Norbert	( 2)	19-3-3	264	3
4	Plattsburgh		17-4-4	241	4
5	Middlebury		16-4-4	207	6
6	St. Scholastica		17-4-6	187	5
7	Gustavus Adolphus		18-5-2	178	7
8	Williams		15-5-3	136	8
9	Hamline		16-5-4	128	8
10	Bowdoin		17-5-1	122	12
11	Elmira		17-7-1	94	10
12	Adrian		22-3-0	86	11
13	Amherst		16-4-4	76	13
14	Manhattanville		18-6-1	48	14
15	Wis.-River Falls		17-8-2	39	15
Others Receiving Votes: Fredonia 9, Wentworth 4, Marian 3, Neumann 2, Hamilton 1

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=uscho3m&week=poll#ixzz0gIZV0pve

It's nice, albeit meaningless, that both my teams are numero uno.

r

Looking at the PWC, Oswego got hosed by this meaningless poll. Norwich's ties against Platty and Potty costs NU in the COP, and the loss to Williams hurts them in the RNK category. Oswego still has a better resume - it's a nice honor, but we need to keep going

[The Real Georgia Peach]

Re: New Poll Predictions for 2/22

Now that the regular season is behind us, will there be a USCHO Poll next week?