2008-09 D-I Predictions Thread

[dave1381]

Move some over from the Kaz thread...

I'd rather have the team that wins 4 National Championships than not win them and take a Kaz award. Irwin and Friddy are gonna give Kim a run for her money for the Kaz... and ONE of them should win it in the next three seasons if not both. The team is stacked and should be punching tickets to Beantown next March.

I have little doubt UMD will be hosting a NCAA quarterfinal next year. That said, "punching tickets to Boston" is premature because you still have to win that pressure-packed quarterfinal game.

Funny, I ran into some of the UMD sophomores in the hotel lobby early am Sunday, and I made an offhand comment about seeing them play in the Boston next year, and the first thing on the minds was, "we'd have the quarterfinal game... yeah that quarterfinal game is so tough... it's the worst." So they know. Getting to the Frozen Four isn't easy.

Brian and I had a discussion around this time last season as to whether Mercyhurst or Wisconsin was a more sure bet to host an NCAA quarter in 2008 -- turns out we were both wrong. Getting two WCHA teams into the top four of the PWR is always going to be iffy, because the second WCHA team figures to have more losses than the winner of the other three conferences. While Wisconsin loses more in Zaugg and Morris versus Demeule for UMD, the Badgers also have a better recruiting class next season.

And because the Bulldogs proved that it is possible to graduate a lot of seniors and offset that with a talented crop of rookies, I'm not counting my favorite team out of the mix either.;)

Interesting point, but I'll stand by what I said. If I had to pick the team with the most known quantities returning each season, I'd go UNH in 07-08, Wisconsin in 06-07, SLU in 05-06, Minnesota in 04-05, Minnesota/Dartmouth in 03-04, UMD/Harvard in 02-03, UMD in 2002, Dartmouth in 2001. They all made the top 4 in the regular season. I think that team is UMD in 07-08. I'd have Wisconsin/Mercyhurst in my preseason top 4 for 07-08, but I didn't think either was as sure thing as UNH this season or UMD next season.

Recruiting classes are tougher to project, so there are always a ton of surprises in terms of teams getting better really quickly. But I think it's been rare so far that the team with the most known quantities returning has not finished in the top 4.

[ARM]

Interesting point, but I'll stand by what I said. If I had to pick the team with the most known quantities returning each season, I'd go UNH in 07-08, Wisconsin in 06-07, SLU in 05-06, Minnesota in 04-05, Minnesota/Dartmouth in 03-04, UMD/Harvard in 02-03, UMD in 2002, Dartmouth in 2001. They all made the top 4 in the regular season. I think that team is UMD in 07-08. I'd have Wisconsin/Mercyhurst in my preseason top 4 for 07-08, but I didn't think either was as sure thing as UNH this season or UMD next season.I'd agree in terms of "known quantities returning", because they don't lose much off a championship team. But I'd give UNH an edge in terms of the gap that they've opened up over the rest of their league. Sure, they lose a lot of impact from their seniors, but they have a lot of pieces waiting in the wings. The WCHA might be similar to the last couple of years where a team can finish 3rd in the regular season or tourney and still make the NCAA championship game. I expect that Wisconsin will be better, especially early, so I don't see the Bulldogs being able to open up the large edge early that they did in 2007-2008. Nationally, both Harvard and UNH might have less competitive paths back to a top-four finish than UMD does.

[PrincetonFan]

So which team of the final eight is most likely not to repeat? As I'm looking at things now, it's entirely possible that all eight will be back. Perhaps a team like Clarkson or UConn could dislodge one of the ECAC teams, but which one?

[dave1381]

Well, I don't know much about incoming recruits, but I don't think any of the top 8 is losing a greater share of their talent to graduation than St. Lawrence (Harbec, Grills, Guay, Guckian). UNH might be losing more in absolute terms, but less in relative terms since their returning classes are so deep (Hitchcock, Wright-Ward, Craig, Garland). Minnesota loses 3 of top 4 scoreres (Ross, McKenzie, Anya Miller). No one else is really losing more than an impact player or two, Harvard (Cahow), Wisconsin (Zaugg, Morris), UMD (Demuele), Mercyhurst (Hosier, Jones), Dartmouth (Ruta, Thompson, Cobb).

SLU was a fairly deep team to begin with, but I'd say they're the team most in danger of slipping out, though this team has defied critics before. It's just that Clarkson and Dartmouth both look to be in pretty good shape, and no way the ECAC gets 4 in.

[Hux]

In the case of UNH, they might be losing more than just the grads. If so, they will be losing impact players.

[rinkrat890890]

In the case of UNH, they might be losing more than just the grads. If so, they will be losing impact players.

Kids transferring?

[Cleary24]

UNH losing more than just grads? :confused:

[ARM]

... and no way the ECAC gets 4 in.The existence of the autobid makes that still-unlikely scenario at least mathematically possible.

I think that the WCHA next season will be a little like the ECAC was in 2006-2007. There will be three teams who could win a national championship -- or finish third in their own conference. Or maybe even both. It might come down to who has better luck regarding injuries.

[RStarr]

Golden Knights are gonna win it all!

[Just Hockey]

With UMD losing just 1 and still having Kim Martin and their good rookies having a year of experience ,with a very good bunch of seniors and being defending champs I would look to them being in Boston with Minn from the west.

[Skate79]

A lot can and will happen between now and March of next season. It would be easy to say that UMD, Wisconsin, UNH and Harvard should be shoo-ins based on returning talent and the assumption that their incoming classes have some reasonable talent. But you can't account for injuries or the unforseen such as another team in the conference rising and upsetting one of these teams.

Dartmouth is a perfect example. The '06-07 team had world class talent and experience and was heavily favored in their quarterfinal against BC. We all know what happened.

There are few guarantees in life and none of them reside in the NCAAs. Personally, I think Harvard has a great chance to return to the Frozen Four. Will they? Depends on who they face in the quarters and how they are playing next March. Among other factors.

[dave1381]

Surely there are no longer any guarantees for a team to get to the Frozen Four. I do think you can be a lot more confident about predictions for getting home ice though, when you're talking about the success of deep teams playing a large number of games.

[ARM]

It would be easy to say that UMD, Wisconsin, UNH and Harvard should be shoo-ins based on returning talent and the assumption that their incoming classes have some reasonable talent.That assumes that these four enjoyed a huge lead over those teams behind them. Mercyhurst was expected to be a top-four team based on results from 2006-2007. For some reason, it never really came together for them. It might again in 2007-2008.

I do think you can be a lot more confident about predictions for getting home ice though, when you're talking about the success of deep teams playing a large number of games.That's the thing -- I don't see that UMD is that deep compared to some of the teams that they will have to beat to host. Once Gavrilova was out, they dropped if they had to go beyond their 9th forward. They definitely aren't as deep up front as Wisconsin, and I'd say Minnesota is deeper up front as well. Perhaps they will pick up a transfer than can help. Otherwise, losing Demeule may hurt if they don't offset that loss.

I see UMD this past season as being a little like Boston College the year before -- a lot of things went right for them to make it as far as they did. Will everything fall into place again? I don't think that is any more likely than it is that Harvard arrives at the Frozen Four with a single loss in back-to-back seasons.

[Travelingman]

In the case of UNH, they might be losing more than just the grads. If so, they will be losing impact players.


Hux, where is your information coming from? How can anyone want ot leave this team? I respect many things you have to say on here, but this is something I heard nothing of while at the St. Lawrence game or in Duluth.

[Skate79]

That assumes that these four enjoyed a huge lead over those teams behind them. Mercyhurst was expected to be a top-four team based on results from 2006-2007. For some reason, it never really came together for them. It might again in 2007-2008.


In the case of Harvard and UNH, yes there is a drop-off. For Harvard, once you got past Dartmouth and SLU, the ECACHL at least this year was not very strong. UNH was expected to be challenged by BC but it never happened. If I were a Wildcat fan (and I'm not), I would have to assume BC will turn it around next season. Again, an assumption.

As far as Mercyhurst, I agree that the expectation was that they would be a top four team after their '06-'07 season. Same for BC. You can't compare their situations however because in each case, the circumstances were different (the BC coaching scandal). But in both cases, I would expect that they will challenge for a top four spot next season.

[BKDad]

There are few guarantees in life and none of them reside in the NCAAs.
There's always death - that's there for all but one team. :eek:

[Just Hockey]

One other thing I forgot to mention in my other post that gives an edge to UMD would be their coaching staff led by Shannon Miller her ability has been matched by nobody and then the assistants Caroline and Julie who were outstanding players and are still world calibre players that can provide the how to the Bulldog players. If anybody here does not think that they will be in Boston you are looking through rose coloured glasses.

[BCWH Superfan joe]

The 8 combatants next March, in no particular order...

UNH, UMD, Wisco, Minnesota, Harvard, Clarkson, Providence, Mercyhurst

[RStarr]

I see UMD this past season as being a little like Boston College the year before -- a lot of things went right for them to make it as far as they did. Will everything fall into place again? I don't think that is any more likely than it is that Harvard arrives at the Frozen Four with a single loss in back-to-back seasons.
I have to disagree with this thought. UMD had a better season record, won the regular conference as well as the WCHA tourney and not only advanced from the FF but won the title game. BC barely snuck in the NCAA's last year, they didn't win the conference (regular season or HEA tourney) and lost in the FF. Am I saying that UMD is a lock for next year's FF, no, but I think they deserve more credit than to equate their season this year to BC's puck luck of a seaosn last year.

[ARM]

I have to disagree with this thought. UMD had a better season record, won the regular conference as well as the WCHA tourney and not only advanced from the FF but won the title game. BC barely snuck in the NCAA's last year, they didn't win the conference (regular season or HEA tourney) and lost in the FF. Am I saying that UMD is a lock for next year's FF, no, but I think they deserve more credit than to equate their season this year to BC's puck luck of a seaosn last year.I'm not saying that the two teams are equivalent -- UMD in a down year still beat the most successful BC team ever at the FF. But there are similarities. Both were young teams with almost all of the key players returning. The temptation when analyzing such teams is to assume that they start at the same point and progress farther. Had Gavrilova not scored late goals versus UW and MSU, then UMD enters the WCHA tourney as the 3rd seed, and who knows? If they don't have her at all next year, the season may play out differently. I don't see there being much margin for error in the WCHA next season.

No matter what, Martin will give UMD a chance in any game. But we said the same thing last year about BC with Schaus.