Division I Rutter Computer Ranking Top Ten for Monday, January 7th

[LakersFan]

Rutter Division I Women's Ice Hockey Computer Ranking Top Ten

Through Games of Sunday, January 6th.

Rating is based on wins, loses, and ties only. Margin of victory and game location are not included in the rating. A team's rating from the previous year is used as an initial weight using a Bayesian approach.

Rank Team Rating Previous Record
1 Harvard 2.0223 1 13-1-0
2 New Hampshire 1.7620 3 18-3-0
3 Minnesota Duluth 1.7290 2 16-3-1
4 Mercyhurst 1.3654 4 14-4-2
5 Minnesota 1.2198 5 14-4-2
6 St. Lawrence 1.1467 6 14-6-0
7 Dartmouth 0.9528 7 11-4-1
8 Wisconsin 0.8723 8 14-6-2
9 Connecticut 0.7663 9 13-4-3
10 Clarkson 0.6363 10 14-4-2

Dropped from top ten: None

For more information, visit http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/WomensRankings.html

Copyright 2007 Michael A. Rutter

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[ARM]

I see that the PWR are now up:

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=pwr1w...I made that post on 1/22/2007, so we're probably a week away from our first glimpse at this season's Pairwise. Based on games played today, what will we see? These are my guesses, which I didn't bother figuring out mathematically because COP is set to jump all over the place in some cases. Many of these teams can move two spots or more based on results this week.

#1 Harvard -- They are at the top of the RPI, so it is tough for anyone to pass a team with only one loss. UNH does win the H2H point, but then the Crimson will be perfect in TUC and COP for that comparison.

#2 UMD -- better RPI than UNH and a lead in COP with better results versus SLU and MC.

#3 UNH -- the top three are pretty close and should shuffle around if the RPI rankings change.

#4 UM -- tenuous lead that lasts as long as they can stay in front in RPI. Slim lead over the next two, and also lead in TUC. COP with MC will switch to the Lakers if they don't lose to WSU (or they could tie if MC goes 4-0 vs WSU and UM goes 1-0 vs UMD, or if MC goes 3-1 vs WSU and UM goes 0-1 vs UMD.)

#5 SLU -- the comparison with MC makes my head hurt, but they have a slight lead in TUC and I believe in COP, based on SLU's better results against PC, DC, and Clarkson. This is hard to figure because they play so many COP opponents. So there will be a large number of games that could impact the placement of these two, plus the RPI is very close. I'll leave it to the computers (i.e. LakersFan and the Harvard graduates.)

#6 MC -- I think they come next, but the comparison with Dartmouth is closer than one would think. More head hurting.

#7 UConn -- the order of 7-9 really makes it feel like it is Monday morning. UConn/DC is a close one.

#8 DC -- they trail UW in RPI, but have a better TUC and I believe COP once they play UNH.

#9 UW -- bad TUC right now at 3-7, but series coming up with OSU and SCSU could improve that.

#10 Clarkson -- not sure where they rank relative to UW, but both need to improve to get into the field.

Other teams still have a realistic shot at an at large bid, though some may be reaching the point where they'd either have to get crazy hot or hope that several above them drop.

[LakersFan]

I am about to update my rankings in another thread, but here are my two cents, putting teams into three groups.

In with home ice in the quarterfinals:
Harvard, UNH, UMD

In, fighting for the last home ice slot:
St. L., Minn, Mercyhurst

Fighting for the last two slots:
Wisconsin, Dartmouth, Connecticut

The last three will not play each other, so we have a long way to go before the last two slots are decided. St. Cloud State or Clarkson will need to pull off some big upsets to make it in.

[ARM]

I made that post on 1/22/2007, so we're probably a week away from our first glimpse at this season's Pairwise. Based on games played today, what will we see? These are my guesses ...

#1 Harvard ...
#2 UMD ...
#3 UNH ...
#4 UM ...
#5 SLU ...
#6 MC ...
#7 UConn ...
#8 DC ...
#9 UW ...
#10 Clarkson...Well, the PWR are now up:

USCHO's PWR page (http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=pwr1w).

This version of the Pairwise appears to have some problems.
1) No Harvard -- maybe they failed based on a too-high composite Mensa score? Upon closer analysis, they currently lack the 20 games versus tournament eligible opponents. So in a couple of weeks, they'll assume their spot at #1.
2) St. Anselms -- maybe I'm just bitter because they (apparently) have a higher RPI than the Gophs (:o :( :eek: ), but we might as well just pick someone at random out of the crowd and include them in the rankings. They aren't a TUC, but they wind up in the comparisons anyway.

So assuming Harvard at #1 and ignoring the pesky St. Anselms, USCHO has a top 12 PWR list of:

1 Harvard
2 Minnesota-Duluth
3 New Hampshire
4 Minnesota
5 St. Lawrence
6 Mercyhurst
7 Connecticut
8 Wisconsin
9 Clarkson
10 St. Cloud State
11 Dartmouth
12 Princeton

My predictions were off in the case of Dartmouth and their 0-1-1 week, which dropped them out of a logjam down to #11.

[dave1381]

The Ivies with < 20 games are back on there now, it's kind of pointless to wait until their 20th game has been played since they will inevitably be eligible (though maybe those who thought Harvard shouldn't be ranked in the USCHO poll until they've played a certain number of games would disagree.)

St. Anselm has been included in past rankings and had a similar RPI ranking. It remains a nice little reminder of the flaws in the RPI system. I would say look at KRACH to see how it handles it better, but St. Anselm and St. Michael's aren't in the USCHO KRACH, oh well.