NCAA playoff matchups

[HEfanatic]

Thought I would get this rolling as the season is coming to a close.

I am a Boston College alum but a major UNH women's fan and I have to say, I hope BC doesn't slip into that eighth spot. To avoid conference matchups, #1 UNH would be paired with a hot Princeton squad or even worse Mercyhurst, both of which I feel would give the cats a much better run for their money than BC would, or what BC will put up against a SLU or Wisconsin. I hope Harvard slips in there. I feel much more comfortable with another rematch with the Crimson at the Whitt in the first round.

Any thoughts?

[Gibber]

you have to beat the best to be the best...
The potential first round matchup with Mercyhurst scares me the most as well, but no matter who they end up with (looks like either the Lakers, or Princeton), it will be a battle, and will hopefully prepare them for a potentially great Frozen Four field in Minneapolis, should they advance.

I will say, it definitely doesn't hurt their chances that each of the NCAA games they will play will be on the big sheet (barring a monumental collapse before the end of the Hockey East tournament...).

[Gibber]

Neither will clarkson.

That's called going out on a limb folks ;)

[rinkrat890890]

Thought I would get this rolling as the season is coming to a close.

I am a Boston College alum but a major UNH women's fan and I have to say, I hope BC doesn't slip into that eighth spot. To avoid conference matchups, #1 UNH would be paired with a hot Princeton squad or even worse Mercyhurst, both of which I feel would give the cats a much better run for their money than BC would, or what BC will put up against a SLU or Wisconsin. I hope Harvard slips in there. I feel much more comfortable with another rematch with the Crimson at the Whitt in the first round.

Any thoughts?

:eek: :eek: :mad: you're mean

[HEfanatic]

Iam going to say that BC doesnt make it. Neither will clarkson. Here are my First round picks:

#8 Seed - Harvard @ #1Seed - New Hampshire
#7 Seed - Minn-Duluth@ #2 Seed - St. Lawrence
#6 Seed - Mercyhurst @ #3 Seed - Wisconsin
#5 Seed - Princeton @ #4 Seed - Minnesota


I think harvard clearly has the tougher path to making the field of eight, which makes me think BC is in great shape, as they just swept Providence and are the #2 seed in the hockey east playoffs. Harvard has Clarkson and SLU left on their schedule, not a particularly kind pair of matchups for the Crimson and then a likely fifth or worse seed in the ECAC tournament gives them Brown as a first round opponent at best. BC and harvard have been going in different directions as far as level of play is concerned over the past couple of weeks.
Looks like the Cats should expect to see the Lakers or Tigers. Obviously, as Gibber points out, you have to beat the best to be the best but I would really love to see a UNH matchup with SLU or one of the Minnesotas at some point, especially the Saints. I think UNH v. SLU would be an incredible game to watch and is at this point the best matchup in women's hockey.
I just don't see harvard or brown winning the ECAC tournament over SLU or princeton, thus helping BC take the final spot.

[ARM]

... I would really love to see a UNH matchup with SLU or one of the Minnesotas at some point, especially the Saints. I think UNH v. SLU would be an incredible game to watch and is at this point the best matchup in women's hockey.I don't think you'll get UNH vs. SLU before the the final. Wisconsin would have to pass both for that to happen sooner. It looks like Princeton and one of UMD/UM will meet in a quarter with the winner getting the UNH side of the bracket. (based on an unlimited travel and no intraconference quarters population of the bracket, plus no meltdowns)

[gojackets]

I don't think you'll get UNH vs. SLU before the the final. Wisconsin would have to pass both for that to happen sooner. It looks like Princeton and one of UMD/UM will meet in a quarter with the winner getting the UNH side of the bracket. (based on an unlimited travel and no intraconference quarters population of the bracket, plus no meltdowns)


I"m sure UMD would love a crack at St Lawrence after last years upset at Wessman

[ARM]

I"m sure UMD would love a crack at St Lawrence after last years upset at WessmanProbably, but I'd bet that they'd rather meet them in Minnesota than New York.

[sk8happy]

I"m sure UMD would love a crack at St Lawrence after last years upset at Wessman

They might, but I'd be careful what you wish for. I think SLU is a more dangerous team than a year ago and one that is poised to make a run here at the end.
I don't know how they'd match up, not having seen Duluth- but SLU doesn't have a lot of hole: excellent in net, strong veteran blueline core and a group of high scoring offensive forwards. They're also very good on special teams...
This team is quick and deep. I don't think they're too many teams "wishing" to draw them at this point, especially at Appleton.

[sk8happy]

Iam going to say that BC doesnt make it. Neither will clarkson. Here are my First round picks:

#8 Seed - Harvard @ #1Seed - New Hampshire
#7 Seed - Minn-Duluth@ #2 Seed - St. Lawrence
#6 Seed - Mercyhurst @ #3 Seed - Wisconsin
#5 Seed - Princeton @ #4 Seed - Minnesota


I'd be curious to hear Dave's view on Harvard's chances versus BC's since he seems to be able to do the pairwise math. Dave, if you're out there, feel free to chime in on the possibilities here and how it might play out?

[HEfanatic]

I'd be curious to hear Dave's view on Harvard's chances versus BC's since he seems to be able to do the pairwise math. Dave, if you're out there, feel free to chime in on the possibilities here and how it might play out?

Maybe Harvard and BC will both be on the outside looking in when St. Cloud wins the WCHA title... It is basically the only upset I see possibly (though unlikely) happening as Clarkson, Princeton, or SLU are highly likely to win the ECAC. I just don't see a harvard, yale, dartmouth or brown upset there. I also don't see BC, Maine or PC downing UNH either.

[dave1381]

I'd be curious to hear Dave's view on Harvard's chances versus BC's since he seems to be able to do the pairwise math. Dave, if you're out there, feel free to chime in on the possibilities here and how it might play out?
a few quick points
--BCs RPI adv. over Harvard is a little larger than it looks since dropping three Vermont games helps more than dropping 2 Union and 1 Robert Morris game.
--If BC sweeps Maine, beats Providence, loses to UNH in the final... and Harvard splits this last weekend, sweeps its Qfinal, wins its semifinal, loses in the final... then Harvard would end up with the higher RPI. Any BC loss gives Harvard another loss to spare.
--Harvard's better off losing to SLU than Clarkson or Princeton since the latter are common opponents of BC.

So basically, if Harvard beats everyone but SLU, they'll be fine as far as can tell... of course, Harvard hasn't been able to do that with any consistency this season.

[sk8happy]

a few quick points
--BCs RPI adv. over Harvard is a little larger than it looks since dropping three Vermont games helps more than dropping 2 Union and 1 Robert Morris game.
--If BC sweeps Maine, beats Providence, loses to UNH in the final... and Harvard splits this last weekend, sweeps its Qfinal, wins its semifinal, loses in the final... then Harvard would end up with the higher RPI. Any BC loss gives Harvard another loss to spare.
--Harvard's better off losing to SLU than Clarkson or Princeton since the latter are common opponents of BC.

So basically, if Harvard beats everyone but SLU, they'll be fine as far as can tell... of course, Harvard hasn't been able to do that with any consistency this season.

Thanks for the clarification Dave. Should be an interesting couple of weeks as teams try to close out the regular season, enter tournament play and fight to gain an NCAA berth. I tend to think there will be some sort of upset in tournament play which could throw a wrench into the works, but that's hard to predict since SLU & Princeton will be tough in their loop, UNH is going to be difficult in HE, and Wisconsin, Minnesota or Duluth should win their tourney. No matter, tournament time is always fun. :)

[dhmn]

The way UMD has been playing, if they dont' sweep Mankato this weekend AND at least take 3rd in the WCHA tournament, I dont' believe they'll even have a matchup in the first round.

I wish they would have dropped down in the rankings at least to 7th after being swept by OSU and especially after the 2-0 shutout NoDak handed them at the DECC. That might at least give them some sort of incentive to turn the season around, rather than thinking they'll just automatically get a shot in a first round NCAA game.

If anything.. Princeton should be ahead of UMD in the ranking, just looking at their schedule they're beating teams they should beat, while we know what's happened up here in northern Minnesota.

[sk8happy]

The way UMD has been playing, if they dont' sweep Mankato this weekend AND at least take 3rd in the WCHA tournament, I dont' believe they'll even have a matchup in the first round.

I wish they would have dropped down in the rankings at least to 7th after being swept by OSU and especially after the 2-0 shutout NoDak handed them at the DECC. That might at least give them some sort of incentive to turn the season around, rather than thinking they'll just automatically get a shot in a first round NCAA game.

If anything.. Princeton should be ahead of UMD in the ranking, just looking at their schedule they're beating teams they should beat, while we know what's happened up here in northern Minnesota.

As it stands today, the Bulldogs are fighting for their "home" ice lives. It'll be interesting if Duluth has to travel, given the two WCHA home ice berths in round one - I'd guess they'll be sent either to SLU or UNH.
One poster already suggested that a rematch with SLU might be right up their alley, and certainly the tiny ice surface at Appleton might be to their liking. I can't imagine they'd be too thrilled about coming to the "lake" in Durham. The surface at the Whitt is absolutely huge and I've yet to see a team this year come to town that could match the Wildcats on that big surface. Whoever the Cats draw had better be built on speed if they hope to make a game of it. I'm thinking that Princeton might be the toughest draw given the big surface, but then again, Mercyhurst is quick, tough and showed they can handle it when they visited earlier in January.

[ARM]

I can't imagine they'd be too thrilled about coming to the "lake" in Durham. The surface at the Whitt is absolutely huge and I've yet to see a team this year come to town that could match the Wildcats on that big surface. Whoever the Cats draw had better be built on speed if they hope to make a game of it.If UNH is the #1 seed, I think they'd wish for a better draw than UMD. Right now, the Bulldogs aren't a very good team. But there is a precedent for them turning a season like this around. In 2001-2002, they were great in the first half, lousy in the second, got handled by the Badgers in the WCHA semi -- then a couple of weeks later, they are lifting the NCAA trophy again.

UMD's top line is very fast, and Drazen is probably right up there with the fastest D in the country. Perennially, they along with Harvard are the fastest teams that Minnesota sees. They have a big goalie who is very good at stopping the first shot. Rebound control is an issue, but her D is pretty good at clearing people out. Conceivably, she could cause problems for a team that gets a lot of shots, but sometimes struggles to finish.

UNH would still be the favorite. If they get the "bad" UMD, then they will cruise. If UMD finds themselves before such a mythical game, then it is a tougher battle than a #1 seed deserves.

[dave1381]

A question though is, if we have Wisconsin 3, Minnesota 4, UMD 5, how far will the committee go to prevent intraconference matchups? I don't think the commitee would have any problem with a 3-5 matchup or a 1-7 matchup, but a 2-5 matchup might be more problematic, especially if UMD turns out to be a strong 5 rather than a weak 5, if that makes any sense.

I don't think it's improbable that they'd keep UMD with Minnesota in that scenario, give BC to SLU and Mercyhurst to UNH... or if it's a ECAC team at 8, give ECAC team at UNH, and Mercyhurst at SLU. That bracket would be better in terms of $$$ and bracket integrity, so I think it would be preferable.

Of course, if UMD falls to 6, this becomes a non-issue.

[ARM]

Since we only have one year of precedent with this sport and this format, what the committee might do with any scenario is largely conjecture. I definitely understand what you mean about a "strong 5", and UMD at a 6 or 7 would be an "oh crap" matchup for a high seed, because they have the potential to play so much better than they have for the last month.

[sk8happy]

If UNH is the #1 seed, I think they'd wish for a better draw than UMD. Right now, the Bulldogs aren't a very good team. But there is a precedent for them turning a season like this around. In 2001-2002, they were great in the first half, lousy in the second, got handled by the Badgers in the WCHA semi -- then a couple of weeks later, they are lifting the NCAA trophy again.

UMD's top line is very fast, and Drazen is probably right up there with the fastest D in the country. Perennially, they along with Harvard are the fastest teams that Minnesota sees. They have a big goalie who is very good at stopping the first shot. Rebound control is an issue, but her D is pretty good at clearing people out. Conceivably, she could cause problems for a team that gets a lot of shots, but sometimes struggles to finish.

UNH would still be the favorite. If they get the "bad" UMD, then they will cruise. If UMD finds themselves before such a mythical game, then it is a tougher battle than a #1 seed deserves.

Hey, I'm not saying the either UNH or SLU "wants" Duluth.. Then again, who do you want?? Princeton is playing extremely well right now, Mercyhurst is the king of the giant killers and came oh so close to taking out Harvard last year in Cambridge..

As for goaltending, big goalies that are great at taking away the first shot don't always fare too well at the Whitt. The huge surface changes angles tremendously, not to mention creates issues with positioning for rebounds.
And, I'd add, UNH is a team that gets a lot of shots, but hardly struggles to finish.

Add the special teams advantage that Cats have at home and I'd like their chances. Killing penalties at the Whitt has been a nightmare for teams this year and UNH's power play moves the puck than any team I've seen this year.
They're not a 30% power play by accident, and they have two groups that can hurt you.

[Larry R]

Assuming the 4-5 remains Minnesota UMD, if I was the NCAA (which I am not, probably because of this thinking) there would be no way that I would have this game as a quarterfinal game, the only way I want to see UMD play Minnesota is in the championship game. It would be an attendance boost that I don't think you can discount. Unfortunately, without UMD playing their way down to the 8 seed, I don't see much of a way of that happening