DIII Final 7 Thoughts Predictions

[stetem]

Looking over the polls and pairwise rankings lately .. if find it hard to guess who might be our Final 7 Teams

Plattsburgh and Middlebury should go even if they lose their respective Championships.. with the possibilty of Manhattanville getting in that way also
St.Thomas and Gustavus should both go.. but will the loser of thier championship get a pool c bid
Superior and Stevens Point both look good and one will probably go on..but is thier a possible pool c bid thier as well

Any thoughts or predictions out thier ???

[obserbear]

Given the structure of the NCAA pools and the reluctence of the NCAA to fly a team for a Quarter-final game, it seems you need an even number of western teams for the tournament. The #1 seed rests on the Plattsburgh@Manhattanville series. Notwithstanding upsets in conference tournaments, to take 4 western teams means seeding the loser of the Platt@M-ville series and the NESCAC champ as some combination of 2-7, 3-6 or 4-5. Had Gustavus, St. Thomas and Stevens Point fared better in the east it would have improved the chance for 4 western teams to be selected, but I think it may end up with only 2 bids (1 'B' and 1 MIAC) for the west. Maybe the NCAA will spring for some plane tickets?

[hockeyyfan]

Any thoughts or predictions out thier ???

If Elmira wins out and takes second in the ECAC-W tournament(first is a no brainer) they have an outside shot. They will have finished the regular season on a 9 win streak. Two losses don't 'count' in the NCAA formula and other than Utica their losses only were to #1, #2 or #3.....plus a win over a D1 team that also doesn't 'count'. But they have to take care of business the next two weeks against some motivated competition.

[nut_case]

RE: the reluctance of the NCAA to fly teams- While that has traditionally been an important factor for the NCAA( particularly since 9/11/2001), their extremely surprising (actually outrageous) decision last Spring to move the site of one round of the D3 Women's Lacrosse Tournament from Cortland, NY(the Host) to Colorado Springs required them to fly 3 Eastern teams to Colorado and might indicate some shifting of the traditional approach.

[SHUCrosscheck]

RE: the reluctance of the NCAA to fly teams- While that has traditionally been an important factor for the NCAA( particularly since 9/11/2001), their extremely surprising (actually outrageous) decision last Spring to move the site of one round of the D3 Women's Lacrosse Tournament from Cortland, NY(the Host) to Colorado Springs required them to fly 3 Eastern teams to Colorado and might indicate some shifting of the traditional approach.

A shift in their traditional approach for a larger based sport. Definetly more D3 WLAX then D3 WIH. Just a reality. A broader base = a larger purse

[gojackets]

Given the structure of the NCAA pools and the reluctence of the NCAA to fly a team for a Quarter-final game, it seems you need an even number of western teams for the tournament. The #1 seed rests on the Plattsburgh@Manhattanville series. Notwithstanding upsets in conference tournaments, to take 4 western teams means seeding the loser of the Platt@M-ville series and the NESCAC champ as some combination of 2-7, 3-6 or 4-5. Had Gustavus, St. Thomas and Stevens Point fared better in the east it would have improved the chance for 4 western teams to be selected, but I think it may end up with only 2 bids (1 'B' and 1 MIAC) for the west. Maybe the NCAA will spring for some plane tickets?

I would think that if St Thomas were to sweep GAC this weekend andthen lose to GAC in the MIAC tournament, there is no way St Thomas wouldnot get a pool c bid. Really eventhe same thing goes for GAC. If they split this weekend...i'm not sure what would happen.

As far as Superior and Point getting in...one will for sure, with the Pool B..which generally goes to whoever wins the NCHA tournament. I think if Superior wins that, they will be the only team from the NCHA...if Point wins...Superior might have an outside shot. I would think if two teams fromt he MIAC are in it the odds of two being from the NCHA in it. But i think youwill see at least 3 teams from the west. With 7 teams in the tournament there will be an odd number somewhere, So there will have to be like a play in game. So that could just as easily be in the west as the east.

[hackyeh]

With a 4-3 split either way the tourney could be east or west depending on the #1 ranking. Odds are right now that it stays in the east but we could see two western teams in the final four for the first time.

[spwood]

All this speculation will depend on conference tournaments. You start right at the top to see who will get in whether or not they win their conference tournament. The further away from the top you are, the more you need the favorites to win their tourneys. For instance, I think we'd all agree that the way things stand right now, Plattsburgh and Middlebury are going to get Pool C bids if they don't win their conference. Anyone below them that doesn't win their conference has to hope the Plattsburgh and Middlebury take their auto bids. So, for instance, there is speculation as to whether St. Thomas, Superior, GAC, Manhattanville, Stevens Point, etc. can get a Pool C bid. Well, that depends on the teams at the top and whether they win their conference tourneys or not. I guess my point is (after taking a few aspirin for the headache I just gave myself), that there's too much hockey left to speculate about who has to do what to get in. With Manhattanville's 18 game NCAA winning streak, the games with Plattsburgh next weekend could change the scenerio....

Should be an interesting month to say the least.

[pioneerhockey23]

I think 10 teams have a shot this year at Pool B and c Bids

Pool C
Plattsburgh
Middlebury
Mannhattenville
Bowdoin
Elmira
Utica
Gustavus
St. Thomas

Pool B
Superior
Stevens Point

Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Mannhattanville, Bowdoin, Elmira, Utica. If the three Eastern AQ's go to teams not listed here look for 4 or 5 of these 6 in the NCAA tournament.

The four teams from the west that could back (pool B orinto the tournament are St. Thomas, Gustavous, Stevens Point and Superior. Two or three of these four should be there. Only way this could change would be if some one not listed wins the MIAC.

Here's how I think it will be decided:

Bowdoin plays both Utica and Elmira, and then look for Elmira to face Utica in the first round of the ECAC West playoffs. If one of these teams could win both of their games that should be enough.
Plattsburgh's series with Mannhattanville has major NCAA implications, but I think just seeding/hosting rights are on the line there.
If either Stevens Point or Superior win the NCHA that should get them in. I think the loser is out.
St. Thomas and Gustavous play twice this weekend and then again in the MIAC tournament (assumed) if one team wins all three they should go and the other one is out. However, if they split up the series fairly evenly this could be the year for three teams from the west...

What do you all think?

AQ sleeper....
Look out for Williams in the NESCAC they could win the whole thing. They've shown they can beat Middlebury and I can't imagine Bowdoin winning without solid goaltending.

[playitagain]

[QUOTE=hockeyyfan]If Elmira wins out and takes second in the ECAC-W tournament(first is a no brainer) they have an outside shot. They will have finished the regular season on a 9 win streak. Two losses don't 'count' in the NCAA formula and other than Utica their losses only were to #1, #2 or #3.....plus a win over a D1 team that also doesn't 'count'. But they have to take care of business the next two weeks against some motivated competition.[/QUO

I agree -- but Elmira still has to go through Neumann and even though the word is one of Neumann's top D is out due to injury the Knights play tough - anything can happen -- then there's Utica - ASK THEM IF IT'S A 1ST ROUND MATCH-UP THEY WANT TO GET INVOLVED IN ON A NEUTRAL ICE SURFACE- in fact, I think Platty is probably thinking the same thing - the knock on Neumann is their inconsistency - but that could be attributed to youth - you can be bad at times but if your overall record is positive - you can also be brilliant at other times - most often a sign of a young team -- for sure it's going to be a different team than Plattsburgh faced in week 1. Let the games begin and the ice packs remain cold.

[hockeyyfan]

Platty started strong and just got stronger, had a very favorable schedule to meet Utica and Neumann early.......Elmira has overcome medical, injury and classroom issues (the incredible shrinking bench) and are playing very well now. The ECACW tournament should be a rhubarb. I agree with Prez on Jackie O'Neil.....she gave up a lot of personal scoring to help build the experience and chemistry of the team. Lately the lines have settled down and it seems to be clicking, but they have 4 tough games to finish before the ECACW they need to win. But props to Platty because they've earned them

[spwood]

Platty started strong and just got stronger, had a very favorable schedule to meet Utica and Neumann early.......

CAN WE PLEASE STOP THE WHINING ABOUT PLATTSBURGH'S SCHEDULE? Their conference schedule is not set up by them.....they played who was in front of them (and, with the exception of a night in Middlebury), have beaten them. They have taken on all comers (Stevens Point, Middlebury twice, Bowdoin twice, Williams, Gustavus Adolphus) and have earned their current position. They are finishing with a Div I team and two again another Div III power in Manhattanville.

After next weekend, they will have played every team in the current top 10 (except two of the western teams) a total of 12 times. What else would you people like them to do?

[aerogroup2]

Platty started strong and just got stronger, had a very favorable schedule to meet Utica and Neumann early.......Elmira has overcome medical, injury and classroom issues (the incredible shrinking bench) and are playing very well now. The ECACW tournament should be a rhubarb. I agree with Prez on Jackie O'Neil.....she gave up a lot of personal scoring to help build the experience and chemistry of the team. Lately the lines have settled down and it seems to be clicking, but they have 4 tough games to finish before the ECACW they need to win. But props to Platty because they've earned them

Why was it favorable for Plattsburgh to meet Utica and Neumann early?

[nut_case]

Re Broader base(NCAA D3 Lacrosse)= Larger purse and the issue of the NCAA flying a team for a distant game- I am not sure of the meaning of the term "purse" in this observation. It certainly is not related to gate receipts for Tournament games, and I am not aware of the NCAA membership funding procedures. I do suspect, however, that my original observation about the Lacrosse situation probably has relevance, in terms of proportionate cost, to the Hockey situation. In other words, I am guessing that the relative cost for the NCAA to fly one western Hockey team to an eastern game would not be significantly different from the relative cost of flying 3 eastern Lacrosse teams to a western Regional site(the hockey scenario would probably be cheaper in relative terms).

[stetem]

CAN WE PLEASE STOP THE WHINING ABOUT PLATTSBURGH'S SCHEDULE? Their conference schedule is not set up by them.....they played who was in front of them (and, with the exception of a night in Middlebury), have beaten them. They have taken on all comers (Stevens Point, Middlebury twice, Bowdoin twice, Williams, Gustavus Adolphus) and have earned their current position. They are finishing with a Div I team and two again another Div III power in Manhattanville.

After next weekend, they will have played every team in the current top 10 (except two of the western teams) a total of 12 times. What else would you people like them to do?

I would agree.. Plattsburgh has earned the # 1 spot
but i'm really hoping Manhattanville has something to say about who's #1 two weeks from now
Will be a great 2 game series
i will definately be there

[gojackets]

I think 10 teams have a shot this year at Pool B and c Bids

Pool C
Plattsburgh
Middlebury
Mannhattenville
Bowdoin
Elmira
Utica
Gustavus
St. Thomas

Pool B
Superior
Stevens Point

Plattsburgh, Middlebury, Mannhattanville, Bowdoin, Elmira, Utica. If the three Eastern AQ's go to teams not listed here look for 4 or 5 of these 6 in the NCAA tournament.

The four teams from the west that could back (pool B orinto the tournament are St. Thomas, Gustavous, Stevens Point and Superior. Two or three of these four should be there. Only way this could change would be if some one not listed wins the MIAC.


Superior and Stevens Point also qualify for the Pool C bid. Most Likely Plattsburgh, Manhattanville and Middlebury will win AQ's. After this weekend we will know how St Thomas stands up against GAC, but one of those will get the MIAC AQ, theres no other team in the MIAC that is even close. And Superior or Point will get the B bid. Its hard to imagine that both Pool C bids would go to Western Teams. However all 4 of the top western teams are ranked above Bowdoin, Utica, and Elmira in the National PWR...so its not unfathomable. I just can't imagine a 4-3 split in favor of the west, eventhough i think it would be deserved. Like i said before..if say GAC were to sweep this weekend and lose to St Thomas in the MIAC tourney, those two are definitely in. If superior and Stevens Point win out, it'll be hard to keep them both out of the tourney...granted one will have to lose in the NCHA champ game. Does that make sense?

[hockeyyfan]

Why was it favorable for Plattsburgh to meet Utica and Neumann early?

First off, I wasn't WHINING about their schedule...it is what it is and if spwood rereads my post he'll see I stated Platty deserved all the props. My point was they played Utica before Jill Nolan joined for the 2nd semester, and she has made them a better team. With Neuman, new recruits, new coach, totally starting from scratch I would rather play them sooner than later when they've had a chance to jell. Nothing more than that.

[spwood]

First off, I wasn't WHINING about their schedule...it is what it is and if spwood rereads my post he'll see I stated Platty deserved all the props. My point was they played Utica before Jill Nolan joined for the 2nd semester, and she has made them a better team. With Neuman, new recruits, new coach, totally starting from scratch I would rather play them sooner than later when they've had a chance to jell. Nothing more than that.

I have read several times on this board that "Plattsburgh was lucky to play Utica without Jill Nolan" and they were "lucky to face Neumann in early". Either several people think Plattsburgh's 21-1 start is due to fortunate scheduling, or one person is writing it several times. Either way, Utica has lost to Neumann, Elmira, and NEC in the second semester, so they haven't been unbeatable. At any rate, Plattsburgh has 14 fresmen on their roster. Maybe Utica was lucky to play Plattsburgh early in the year and just didn't capitalize on it.....

[uvmcats]

I have read several times on this board that "Plattsburgh was lucky to play Utica without Jill Nolan" and they were "lucky to face Neumann in early". Either several people think Plattsburgh's 21-1 start is due to fortunate scheduling, or one person is writing it several times. Either way, Utica has lost to Neumann, Elmira, and NEC in the second semester, so they haven't been unbeatable. At any rate, Plattsburgh has 14 fresmen on their roster. Maybe Utica was lucky to play Plattsburgh early in the year and just didn't capitalize on it.....

I agree with you. I saw the NEC games vs. Platty and Utica (with nolan) and Platty is the better team. NEC played well both games and the results speak for themselves.

[4and20]

Plattsburgh
Middlebury
Gustavus
Wis. Superior
Manhattanville
Elmira
Bowdoin

Final Four
Plattsburgh
Middlebury
Gustavus
Manhattanville