New Poll Positions

[LAKERBROTHER]

Just wondered if anyone had any predictions at what the new polls might look like come monday? Will Dartmouth overtake Minnesota? Does Harvards loss to UNH move them down? I am looking to see what people think.

[dave1381]

I've never seen a team fall in the rankings after splitting on the road, so I doubt the top two spots will change.

I expect Harvard will fall behind UNH and Mercyhurst. I don't think there's any way they go lower, since they blew away St. Lawrence and Brown head-to-head, and neither has done anything to deserve to be ranked higher than Harvard at this point.

Not sure what'll happen to Yale. I'd keep them at 10, but who knows.

[CAV MAN & BIG GREEN FAN!]

gotta agree with dave. dartmouth might sneak a couple of first place votes to tighten the gap, but you couldn't justify unseating the gophers when they split at DC. might have been a different story if the green held on for a few more seconds and taken the tie, but........

regardless, a split will not hurt either of these teams in March. hopefully they are both healthy going into their holiday breaks.

I've never seen a team fall in the rankings after splitting on the road, so I doubt the top two spots will change.

[MICZamboni]

Just curious, can the pollsters split a vote? I can easily see that happening with Minn. and Dart. considering this past weekend.

[sec12fan]

I think we'll see MN and Dartmouth with nearly the same number of first place votes - with the Gophers maintaining a slight edge. UMD 3, WI 4, UNH 5, Harvard 6 . . .

[PrincetonFan]

Mercyhurst will probably be ahead of Harvard, considering they beat UNH:

1. Minnesota
2. Dartmouth
3. UMD
4. Wisconsin
5. Mercyhurst
6. New Hampshire
7. Harvard
8. St. Lawrence
9. Brown
10. Yale or Princeton

[dave1381]

I think Mercyhurst, UNH, Harvard and St. Lawrence all have had fairly comparable results so far, but when teams are close, polls will weight more recent matchups, in particular head-to-head. That's why Mercyhurst beating UNH and UNH beating Harvard will carry more weight than St. Lawrence beating UNH and Mercyhurst. So I agree with that prediction.

[dave1381]

The new USCHO poll is out and it's exactly as we predicted.

[PrincetonFan]

There does seem to be a logic to the poll, despite it being voted on by several people.

After Yale got smacked around by Mercyhurst, and Princeton beat Northeastern and BC, I thought that the Tigers would sneak back in. But I guess edging BC in overtime is nothing to crow about and, most importantly, Yale did beat Princeton. But Princeton went from 7 votes to 5.

[ARM]

I look at the poll, and one question intrigues me: "What if Harvard is overrated?" What are the ramifications?

Now I'm not saying that Harvard is, nor do I want to start a discussion about whether or not they are. But it seems like Harvard is central to comparing the worth of most of the top 10 teams thus far. For instance, Minnesota stays at #1. They came off a stretch where they played UMD, then at Harvard, UW, and Dartmouth. The 4-1-2 mark against those teams looks good, but what if Harvard is on their way to a ~ .500 season, and beating them is no great deal. Throw out that result and Minnesota still has a winning record over that stretch, but they didn't sweep anyone. Same with Wisconsin. They only took 1 of 8 points from UMD and Minnesota (same as MSU-Mankato), but the win over Harvard moves them into the top four. Duluth's results are stronger, but since Harvard is their only non-conference action all year, it gets tough to truly evaluate them in the PWR if the Crimson are not a top team. Even in the case of Dartmouth, we figure we'll know more about the Big Green after they play their rival. What if we don't? UNH is now a top four contender. Why? Because they beat Harvard. At the other end, a team like Yale is in the top ten in large part because their Harvard win made a splash.

In the end, I hope Harvard winds up being a power. If they aren't, maybe we should change the names of the teams to Team A, Team B, etc. and then see how the pollsters rank them.

[dave1381]

Part of the reason why Harvard seems so important in the poll is that they've played 9 of the top 11 teams other than themselves, so they're the one team voters seem to use as measuring stick - everyone except Yale who beat them is ranked above them, everyone who lost to them is ranked below.