Harvard Turkey Day Tournament

[brookyone]

The much anticipated Thanksgiving tournament is almost upon us. I believe it's Minnesota vs. Northeastern & Wisconsin vs. Harvard on the 26th followed by Harvard / Minnesota & Wisconsin / Northeastern on the 27th...hope I don't have all that backwards. I see many are predicting the 27th as Minnesota's first loss of the season. Minnesota at Harvard should be an excellent high tempo affair...perhaps a little grudge factor for the Crimson. Although I don't quite know what to expect in the Badger / Crimson matchup I think that will be a good game also. Wisconsin steps up for their toughest non conference opponent in recent memory...or maybe ever, and thats about it for them this season. I hope the WCHA teams represent themselves well with good efforts here...and I hope fans out east get to see the Gopher's # 7 in action.

[ARM]

Harvard Coach Katie Stone speaking about Minnesota in The Harvard Crimson:

“We’ve got a lot of offense and we’ve got a lot of depth and speed,” Stone said. “I’m sure that they are fast and we obviously know that they have got some offense. Are they as deep as offensively as we are? No, I don’t think so.”

I remember her speaking along those same lines at the NCAAs last year, where she got at best a push out of the 2nd and 3rd lines, depending on how you consider the Sweet goal. She might be right, but the Gophers are skating 3 or 4 frosh on their second and third lines each game. It is hard to predict when those players will start to feel more comfortable in the college game, and take their play up a notch. One might think that would occur against a lower-level opponent, but Nichols became a different player right in the middle of the Dartmouth series last year.

[dave1381]

I see many are predicting the 27th as Minnesota's first loss of the season.
That poll can be a little deceptive though. If 28% think Miinnesota will lose to Harvard, that means 72% think Minnesota will win or tie. (ignoring the 2% who pick Northeastern on Friday) For a No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup, that's a pretty big difference in opinion.

[Crossbar44]

I think the big early test for Minnesota this year will be the Dartmouth series where Dartmouth has two chances to pull an upset at home.

[dave1381]

I remember her speaking along those same lines at the NCAAs last year, where she got at best a push out of the 2nd and 3rd lines, depending on how you consider the Sweet goal.
I don't think there's any question Harvard's 2nd and 3rd lines have outscored Minnesota's down the stretch of last season and so far this season, so it's no surprise that anyone would say those lines are better. I don't know the goals allowed stats for the lines but I think they're probably comparable. That all this did not continue to hold true in the championship, well you could either look at this as a matter of that not translating well to playing Minnesota, or that Harvard's play in the NCAA final was quite unrepresentative of its season as a whole. You can't tell so much since one game is such a small sample size.

One difference between Harvard's depth this year and last year - last year Minnesota stacked its top line down the stretch and Harvard did not, keeping Chu apart from Corriero/McAuliffe. Minnesota's second line's going to of course look better if they had put Wendell or Darwitz on it. Point is, this year, Harvard is stacking its top line, and the second and third lines are as or more productive as they were last season, and the top line is far more productive. This you would expect of any team that returned eight of its top nine forwards from last year and added Sarah Vaillancourt. I'm not guarantee Harvard's 2nd/3rd lines will be more productive on Friday/Saturday, but there's certainly a better chance of it than a year ago.

[ARM]

Of the seven players who have seen the majority of the time on Minnesota's 2nd and 3rd lines, four are rookies, so I don't think last year's stats are too meaningful. While they haven't exploded so far this year, I do think that Minnesota has more forwards who are likely to score this year, than they did last year.

It is easy for coaches and fans to get focused on their own players, because they are so familiar with them. Perhaps Stone looks at her lines and sees more depth than she has ever had before. But other teams, and Minnesota is one of them, also have more quality depth than they did previously.

I guess we will get some answers on Saturday. Hopefully, both teams will be at full strength, so we get a clearer picture of where they rank.

[NTR]

Last year in the final I was absolutely blown away by the extent to which Rugger controlled the game, even when the all-World line was out on the ice. I've only seen the Clarkson game this year, so I don't have much to go on, but it's going to be awfully hard to 'contain' them this time around, even with a strong commitment to team defense and an underrated goalie.

[sec12fan]

I'm most interested to see how Wisconsin fares against Harvard. This really will be the first time the Badgers have faced top 4 competition aside from UMD and MN. It seems to be one thing to face conference opponents - a certain comfort level develops I think, but another to face a prenial National Champion contender.

Since the Badgers are still seem to be primarily a defense oriented team I'd suspect a rather low-scoring affair. If they have a chance it will be from some stellar goal-tending and their ability to keep Corriero, Chu, et. al., in check.

Wish I could see it.

[dave1381]

Perhaps Stone looks at her lines and sees more depth than she has ever had before.Well of course that's what she's doing. She hasn't seen Minnesota play. But given the production of these lines in recent history, regardless of who's playing on them, you can't blame her for thinking that she might have a depth advantage. You can say all you want that Minnesota's second and third lines can break out at any time - anyone, esp. teams playing lots of freshmen - can say that. But until it actually happens, I don't think there's anything short-sighted about the team whose second and third lines have been consistently producing saying that they think they might have a depth advantage in the upcoming weekend.

[dave1381]

Last year in the final I was absolutely blown away by the extent to which Rugger controlled the game, even when the all-World line was out on the ice. I've only seen the Clarkson game this year, so I don't have much to go on, but it's going to be awfully hard to 'contain' them this time around, even with a strong commitment to team defense and an underrated goalie.
And after the final, honestly, I thought with Rugger being gone there was zero chance Harvard would have a serious chance of beating Minnesota this season. But since then I think I vastly underestimated the team. Harvard returned 12 of the 14 skaters who got the bulk of the playing time last year, and those players have improved year-to-year (and I'm sure Minnesota, Wisconsin have too). And people overlook how well some of Harvard's players other than Rugger have performed on the kill. So of course Minnesota is the favorite on Saturday, but I certainly like Harvard's chances better than I did last March.

[brookyone]

And after the final, honestly, I thought with Rugger being gone there was zero chance Harvard would have a serious chance of beating Minnesota this season.
I thought the same prior to the start of the season. She was such a HUGE factor in their success, with her departure I thought the possibility of Harvard stumbling a little bit existed. Although I never did get the impression that anyone else considered that a very real possibility. As you say, that obviously has not been the case...doesn't appear it will be this season at all.

From the Pioneer Press, it sounds as though Wendell is really hoping to participate this weekend.

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/sports/colleges/10249972.htm

[dave1381]

I thought the same prior to the start of the season. She was such a HUGE factor in their success, with her departure I thought the possibility of Harvard stumbling a little bit existed. Although I never did get the impression that anyone else considered that a very real possibility. As you say, that obviously has not been the case...doesn't appear it will be this season at all.[/url]
Well, others on this board thought Harvard would stumble far without Ruggiero this season. I certainly wasn't one of them. I said I used to feel there was no chance of beating Minnesota this year, not because Harvard would stumble, but because I thought it would be too tough for anyone else to improve to the point of beating Minnesota. Now I think there's a better chance of that happening than I did before.

Another way to look at this - last year, among the regulars in the lineup (F, D, and G who'd play more than a shift or two in a big game), Harvard had 2 Sr., 3 Jr., 5 So., 5 Fr. (though Chu is hardly an ordinary So.) But it's still pretty extraordinary to lose only four games all year with this kind of young lineup, unless you're UMD from 2000-01 and several of your sophomores are 22 year-old Olympians. Ruggiero obviously deserves a ton of credit for this team being this successful with that lineup, especially considering that a lot of those sophomores didn't play so much in 2002-03.

Now this year, the team is regularly playing 3 Sr., 5 Jr., 5 So., and 2 or 3 Fr. And again Chu is not an ordinary Jr. and Vaillancourt is not an ordinary Fr. This is a much more veteran lineup now - you're really playing only 1 or 2 defenseman who are still fairly green and no one else is, a far cry from last year when the team was breaking in a far greater number of players. And as I've said, I think the improvement in individual players on this team in the offseason has been even more solid than usual. So this is more or less how Harvard could be better this year even without Rugger.

[ARM]

You can say all you want that Minnesota's second and third lines can break out at any time - anyone, esp. teams playing lots of freshmen - can say that.
My reasons for saying that were based on what I've seen, not "I could win the lottery" type wishful thinking. The supporting cast has been very close. At times, they have dominated the play. The haven't always finished, but they are getting closer. There are 3 or 4 players on the 2nd & 3rd lines who could have a multi-goal game, and I doubt anyone on the team would be surprised. To date, Harvard has a slight edge in offensive numbers. But those lines have also allowed more goals in less games.

Maybe I'm wrong, and you and Coach Stone are right. I'll be interested to hear how it plays out from those who are lucky enough to watch the game.

[dave1381]

To date, Harvard has a slight edge in offensive numbers. But those lines have also allowed more goals in less games.
Keep in mind that Harvard has only had its top nine forwards for three games so far this season, so it is hard to pass judgment there. If Minnesota had to play Providence, Yale and Princeton without three of its top six forwards, then we'd have a better basis of comparison. But since they've had everyone back, Harvard obviously had an awful first eight minutes, and then it's been a near-total shutdown ever since. Anyway, I'll wait and see what happens... and hopefully you can listen. ;)

[ncaafan]

Any word on Krissy? Really looking forward to catching some of this action! Harvard vs Minny - should be good! No, sorry, Great!!

[brookyone]

Update on Krissy Wendell etc...

http://www.mndaily.com/articles/2004/11/24/11432

[brookyone]

Are there any thoughts on NU's anticipated fortunes in this weekends games ? BTW, Happy Thanksgiving to all. :)

[ARM]

They already played 3 games in 5 days from Friday thru Tuesday (BC, UNH, and Brown). Throw in UM and UW, that's kind of a rough 9 day stretch. I wouldn't think you can really prepare for five different teams.

[dave1381]

from the USCHO front:
One of the biggest questions entering the weekend was whether Krissy Wendell would be playing for the No. 1 Gophers. The answer is a resounding yes. She took the opening faceoff against Northeastern Friday afternoon and needed just 2:17 to score an unassisted goal on the power play. Keep checking USCHO for more information on women's hockey's Thanksgiving tournaments.

[ncaafan]

That's great news. Will make the tournament that much better! Should make for some good games this weekend.