Electoral Vote Projections

[dubbie31]

One thing I have noticed with all of the polls is that there is really isn't much consistancy in them. One thing I have learned is not to pay attention to the head to head polls really...but to the approval ratings. This is where Bush is strong at the moment. His approval ratings are consistantly above 50%. 54% is the highest I have seen unless new numbers have come out.


Here are the approval rating numbers I have at the moment for both candidates...

(source: http://www.pollingreport.com )

George W. Bush's numbers

Gallup...no margin of error listed
54% Approve
44% Disapprove

ABC news/Washington Post MOE +/- 3%
50% Approve
45% Disapprove

Time magazine MOE 3%
53-43 Approve

Fox News 3%
50-45 Approve

Overall that give George W. Bush an approval rating of
51.75% Approve
44% Disapprove

Here are John F. Kerry's numbers...these poll's asked for the favorabilty of the candidate. Not exactly his approval.

Poll MOE Favorable UnFavorable Unsure/Neutral/no opinion
ABC News 3 37 42 21
Time 3 42 36 22
CBS News* 3 31 42 27
Gallup 5 51 44 5
PEW* N/A 51 40 9
U of PA 2 43 41 16
Newsweek 4 48 44 8
All of these polls courtesy of http://www.pollingreport.com

*-compiled from different choices

[busterman62]

Looks like it's over for Kerry (http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-et-rivenburg27sep27,1,7065517.story)

The psychic dogs have projected a winner in this year's presidential race.........


Using super canine mental powers, they "channel messages from the spirit world and telepathically send them to me," Mama Stallone has said. She theorizes that her dogs' unusual talent comes from sleeping on Islamic prayer rugs.

So, which candidate will win this November? Bush, by a margin of up to 15%, Stallone says.

[Brett Gobe]

I don't trust dogs, but I am intrigued to what Frank Stallone has to say.

[Kepler]

Most of the latest polls have Bush back in the lead outside the MoE: LA Times Bush +5, ICR Bush +8, IBD Kerry +1, CNN Bush +8 http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Going into the first debate, here are the latest electoral site updates:

Blogging Caesar: Bush 295 Kerry 243 http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Electoral Vote.com: Bush 280 Kerry 254 http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Race2004: Bush 281 Kerry 165 Undecided 92 http://www.race2004.net/

Poll Watcher: Bush 271 Kerry 267 http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

Rasmussen: Bush 213 Kerry 186 Tossup 139 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Tripias (default view): Bush 317 Kerry 221 http://www.tripias.com/state/

[trucker]

Most of the latest polls have Bush back in the lead outside the MoE: LA Times Bush +5, ICR Bush +8, IBD Kerry +1, CNN Bush +8 http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Going into the first debate, here are the latest electoral site updates:

Blogging Caesar: Bush 295 Kerry 243 http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Electoral Vote.com: Bush 280 Kerry 254 http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Race2004: Bush 281 Kerry 165 Undecided 92 http://www.race2004.net/

Poll Watcher: Bush 271 Kerry 267 http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

Rasmussen: Bush 213 Kerry 186 Tossup 139 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Tripias (default view): Bush 317 Kerry 221 http://www.tripias.com/state/

These margins will be tough for Kerry to overcome with so little time left. I felt that Kerry had to be within the MOE by the first debate to have a good chance. He really will have to convert a high % of undecideds in 3-4 of the key swing states to win this although recent, aggressive voter registration drives could be the wild card in the election.

[Rimbaud]

One thing I have noticed with all of the polls is that there is really isn't much consistancy in them. One thing I have learned is not to pay attention to the head to head polls really...but to the approval ratings. This is where Bush is strong at the moment. His approval ratings are consistantly above 50%. 54% is the highest I have seen unless new numbers have come out.


Here are the approval rating numbers I have at the moment for both candidates...

(source: http://www.pollingreport.com )

George W. Bush's numbers

Gallup...no margin of error listed
54% Approve
44% Disapprove

ABC news/Washington Post MOE +/- 3%
50% Approve
45% Disapprove

Time magazine MOE 3%
53-43 Approve

Fox News 3%
50-45 Approve

Overall that give George W. Bush an approval rating of
51.75% Approve
44% Disapprove

Here are John F. Kerry's numbers...these poll's asked for the favorabilty of the candidate. Not exactly his approval.

Poll MOE Favorable UnFavorable Unsure/Neutral/no opinion
ABC News 3 37 42 21
Time 3 42 36 22
CBS News* 3 31 42 27
Gallup 5 51 44 5
PEW* N/A 51 40 9
U of PA 2 43 41 16
Newsweek 4 48 44 8
All of these polls courtesy of http://www.pollingreport.com

*-compiled from different choices
With all those neutral/undecideds for Kerry, this first debate will be a great place for him to prove that he's a viable option besides Bush. If he doesn't do so hot and doesn't get a decent "post-debate" bounce, I say it's over for Kerry. As upsetting as that is for me, at least that all but guarantees a 2008 victory for the Dems. McCain will be too old to run, Cheney will never get the nod, and every one else that's a known Republican is too moderate for the party or too socially liberal.

[Mark Laliberte]

Wow, according to Electoral Vote Predictor 2004, NH is the only state exactly even. (I know the outlined states are in play, but it's still neat.)

[Phill]

its very unfortunate that people arfe actually planning on voting for this ********* we have in office. it is clear that his is in fact nothing but a *********. yet people will still vote for him. they must be *********s too. thats the only way i can begin to understand it.

[unofan]

its very unfortunate that people arfe actually planning on voting for this ********* we have in office. it is clear that his is in fact nothing but a *********. yet people will still vote for him. they must be *********s too. thats the only way i can begin to understand it.
:rolleyes:
:rolleyes:
:rolleyes:

[unofan]

Rimbaud,

Giuliani stands a great shot at getting the 2008 nomination. And he'd do very well against anyone the Dems put up. A Giuliani/Hillary match would be great, especially when he crushes her like he should have a few years ago before pulling out of the senatorial race.

[Phill]

Giuliani stands a great shot at getting the 2008 nomination.
whoever the republicans want to run in 2008 they will have be GW's VP after dick resigns.

[Jason A]

Giuliani stands a great shot at getting the 2008 nomination.Oh God, Ben, not you too! :p The GOP is moving toward the social conservatives, not away from them.

The only way I could see it happening is if Bush loses this time, and the party realizes it sold out almost its entire economic belief system from 2001-2004, and needs to get back to that and stop focusing on the "moralists" (to put it nicely) on the far right. But I think he's a hundred-to-one shot. JMHO.

[Red Cloud]

Rimbaud,

Giuliani stands a great shot at getting the 2008 nomination. And he'd do very well against anyone the Dems put up. A Giuliani/Hillary match would be great, especially when he crushes her like he should have a few years ago before pulling out of the senatorial race.New Yorkers who aren't fans of the Wicked Witch from the South are hoping to see this race two years earlier.

[Rimbaud]

Rimbaud,

Giuliani stands a great shot at getting the 2008 nomination. And he'd do very well against anyone the Dems put up. A Giuliani/Hillary match would be great, especially when he crushes her like he should have a few years ago before pulling out of the senatorial race.
I don't think he'll come close to getting the nomination. Just my feeling.

[unofan]

New Yorkers who aren't fans of the Wicked Witch from the South are hoping to see this race two years earlier.
That'd be fine with me.

[Clifton]

Rimbaud,

Giuliani stands a great shot at getting the 2008 nomination. And he'd do very well against anyone the Dems put up. A Giuliani/Hillary match would be great, especially when he crushes her like he should have a few years ago before pulling out of the senatorial race.

Imagine this wacked-out scenario.

1. Rudy runs against Hillary in 2006, and wins.
2. At the same time, Chuck Schumer runs for Governor of New York, and wins.
3. Schumer's first act as governor is to fill his own vacancy...with Hillary.
4. You then could have two sitting Senators from the same state running for President against each other!

(Yes,I know (3) woulk likely not happen if (1) occurs, but it would be **** funny if it did)

[Terrierbyassociation]

I don't think he'll come close to getting the nomination. Just my feeling.


There is no way the religous right gives Guiliani any support. Keep dreaming Republicans, just because he's the best candidate doesn't mean the party will nominate him for President. As the party shifts to the right moderates like Guiliani will get lost in the shuffle.

[sagard]

I don't think he'll come close to getting the nomination. Just my feeling.

Exactly. He isn't nearly enough of a right wing wacko to get the nod.

[Matt1331]

There is no way the religous right gives Guiliani any support. Keep dreaming Republicans,

Isn't it funny that all the Republicans in here think he can get the nomination and the Democrats are telling them who they aren't going to nominate?

I think Rudy has a good shot and one factor everyone who seems to wishing Rudy away (and I can't blame you, he'd beat any Dem with ease) keeps forgetting is that if Bush wins re-election he could give Rudy his endorsement, thus I wouldn't see Rudy struggling to the nomination.

Matt

[Terrierbyassociation]

Isn't it funny that all the Republicans in here think he can get the nomination and the Democrats are telling them who they aren't going to nominate?

I think Rudy has a good shot and one factor everyone who seems to wishing Rudy away (and I can't blame you, he'd beat any Dem with ease) keeps forgetting is that if Bush wins re-election he could give Rudy his endorsement, thus I wouldn't see Rudy struggling to the nomination.

Matt


Did you just call me a Democrat you snot-nosed punk?