Electoral Vote Projections

[ralph_munch]

Ralphie,

It amazes me that you seem to think you deserve some sort of medal for attempting to figure out who I am. Geesh, like I tried to change my posting style or something. :rolleyes:

Now, let phil have his turn on the computer, will ya! I realize the public library you guys are posting from only has one computer with an internet connection, but you've been hogging the thing all day, and phil needs a chance to do his internet tough guy routine too.... :eek: :cool:

BTW - the cold, hard reality of your existence, beyond this message board, is that I've already amounted to far more than you. Now tell me, how does that feel? :pCopley,

First of all I don't think I deserve a medal for figuring you out. Second, how exactly have you achieved more than me in life? I will be the first to admit I don't have a great job but it is much MUCH better than being head fry cook. Finally, I'm not suprised anything I do amazes you. Munchzilla is ten times the man you will ever be.

[phil_dupree]

Copley,

First of all I don't think I deserve a medal for figuring you out. Second, how exactly have you achieved more than me in life? I will be the first to admit I don't have a great job but it is much MUCH better than being head fry cook. Finally, I'm not suprised anything I do amazes you. Munchzilla is ten times the man you will ever be.

Ralph, :o

How did you figure out it was Copley that was posting under another identity? :eek: :) :rolleyes:

What in the world could have tipped you off? :confused: :D :eek: :p

I figured him out when he showed a lot of denial and rage. Classic Copley. Oh, the smilies too! :D

[phil_dupree]

Awww, poor little philsy, did my comments hit a little too close to home? :D

Its not my fault you live in a trailer and are forced to perform for a family member because your daddy's parole got rejected. I had nothing to do with that. Besides, you can always tell your mom that you have a headache, although I can see how it might be kinda hard to avoid her in that crampled trailer you live in. :p

BTW - please keep me out of your fantasies as I have no need to picture a scrawny, putrid, buck toothed yokel like yourself getting it on with some 300 lb hoochee mama that may or may not be a relative. Incidentally, how many times have you and your family been on Jerry Springer anyway? :eek:


Oh, and as far as Zogby goes, nothing in your rantings has disproven that he was the most accurate polster in 2000. Luckily for you, you live in a state that's solidly Dem, even by the GOP's own polls!

LOL, back for another beating, Scooter? I see you haven't made your argument much more original, just regurgitating the same hacneyed slop from your previous posts. At least now you managed to include a trailer and prison into your oedipus fantasy, which makes for a bizzare trailer-prison incest sex romp for the Copley clan. Hopefully a neighbor is calling the men in white suits right now to take you away, ha ha, or at least preparing their explanations for when the police officer asks them why they did nothing to prevent a weepy, suicidal lifetime loser from finally going postal. Don't worry, I'm sure there is a high school kid that will be more qualified than you were to take your job if and when you can no longer report for duty, for whatever reason.

[Red Cloud]

Ahem...

FLAME ELSEWHERE!!!!

[jtwcornell91]

Ahem...

FLAME ELSEWHERE!!!!
Just put both sides of the flamewar in your ignore list, like I do. ;)

[Rover]

LOL, back for another beating, Scooter? I see you haven't made your argument much more original, just regurgitating the same hacneyed slop from your previous posts. At least now you managed to include a trailer and prison into your oedipus fantasy, which makes for a bizzare trailer-prison incest sex romp for the Copley clan. Hopefully a neighbor is calling the men in white suits right now to take you away, ha ha, or at least preparing their explanations for when the police officer asks them why they did nothing to prevent a weepy, suicidal lifetime loser from finally going postal. Don't worry, I'm sure there is a high school kid that will be more qualified than you were to take your job if and when you can no longer report for duty, for whatever reason.

Yikes! Phillsy get off your mom and take a chill man. I haven't seen this much of a hate filled rant since Zell Miller launched his tirade at the RNC. :eek:

Bottom line is this: my insults of you are clealry hitting home, which is driving you insane. Its not my fault you've been left behind by society and seek to compensate by being some internet tough guy, but please phillsy, the act isn't working. Its not hard to tell that you're the weird, quiet kid in the back of the class who smells funny, doesn't wash his hair, drives a old Pinto and is constantly begging kids in the cafeteria for nickles so you can purchase your lunch. :p The awful truth of this flame fest for you is that this is indeed a reasonable approximation of your life. Now that's gotta hurt!

Ralphie,

Well, I can admit I do have a good job, so there's one thing. I also can safely assume that your one friend in life is phil, which frankly isn't saying much. :eek: Seems "***muchzilla" as you lamely call yourself, isn't much of a man at all.... :cool: Now why don't you get off the computer and find yourself a better job instead of coming out here all day to take brutal but accurate criticisms.....

[Matt1331]

Just in case anyone is interested, the latest Nader news:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040921/pl_nm/campaign_nader_dc

As we learned from the last election, the man could potentially have a real impact on this election, just as he did in the last.

Matt

[ColbyWMHB]

Can there just be one official thread for Rover and Phil to fling lame insults back and forth at each other?

[bronconick]

Listen guys, you can quote polls, look at maps, and throw insults at each other for the next two months, but the fact of the matter is nothing matters until October 31st.


http://www.packersnews.com/archives/news/pack_15812788.shtml

History predicts that with a Packers win, Kerry’s in


18 straight pre-election Redskins games have predicted presidency

By Nate Bloomquist
nbloomquist@greenbaypressgazette.com

John Kerry’s strongest ally in the battle for the White House could be the Green Bay Packers.

A 72-year-old connection between how the Washington Redskins and their predecessor fare in the game before a presidential election and the election’s outcome puts the Packers in Kerry’s corner. The Packers play the Redskins at FedEx Field on Oct. 31; the election is Nov. 2.

If the Redskins lose or tie the game before the presidential election, the party in the White House gets ousted. A Redskins win is a win for the incumbent party, too. At least, that’s how it has played out in the past 18 presidential elections.

The Redskins, who were the Boston Braves in 1932 and the Boston Redskins in 1936, have predicted the election with better accuracy than Punxsutawney Phil forecasts the weather ever since a 1932 pre-election game with the Chicago Bears ended in a 7-7 tie. The Republicans and President Herbert Hoover were sent packing when Franklin Roosevelt won a landslide election the following Tuesday.

U.S. Rep. Mark Green, a Republican from Green Bay and an avid Packers fan, said he couldn’t decide whom to root for in the Oct. 31 game. One thing’s for sure — the Cheesehead in his Washington, D.C., office won’t move.

“This may just be the toughest decision of my life,” he said. “What I’d like to believe is just as our president and our hometown football team have been making history, the Packers will shatter the historical fallacy and we’ll have both our history and our Packers win.”

The chance that the games and elections results matching up in the last 18 elections is 1 in 263.5 million, more than 2,600 times higher than the chance of being killed by a lightning strike in a lifetime, said Dave Dolan, an assistant professor of statistics at the University of Wisconsin-Green Bay.

That sets it apart from other half-baked theories tying presidential elections and sports together.

For seven straight presidential elections from 1952 to 1976, the baseball World Series predicted the presidential election winner. When an American League team won the series, a Republican won the White House. When a National League team won, a Democrat came out on top.

Dolan thinks the Redskins theory has more staying power.

“I’m sure if you searched databases, you could find a lot of things in sports that you could make relate to the election,” he said. “But this one revolves around a team in Washington, so that’s really something.”

The Tennessee Titans beat the Redskins 27-21 in 2000’s pre-election game with Al Gore in the crowd to cheer on the Titans.

A Kerry campaign spokesman said the Massachusetts senator would leave nothing to fate this time around.

“There’s three things that Cheeseheads ought to know about this campaign going into game day before the election: One, George Bush is a Cowboys fan; two, George Bush has lost nearly 3 million jobs since he was elected; and three, a Packer win means a Kerry win,” Kerry spokesman Bill Burton said. “How many more reasons do folks in Wisconsin need?”

It would be easy for President Bush to root for the home team, but a spokeswoman with his re-election campaign took a different spin.

“Like President Bush, the Packers have a record of being strong on defense,” Bush campaign regional press secretary Merrill Hughes Smith said. “Thank goodness Joe Gibbs is back!”

Green Bay Mayor Jim Schmitt, arguably the city’s biggest Packers fan, said politics finishes second on game days, even if it can predict the future.

“I’m not really big into superstition,” Schmitt said. “There are trends and there’s always exceptions to everything. No matter what political party I’m with, I think the Packers will take precedence over politics.”

Inside the beltway, Redskins pundits are ho-hum about the connection.

“I don’t know anything about the Redskins and the election,” said Redskins radio play-by-play announcer and Hall-of-Famer Sam Huff. “When you’re here in Washington, it doesn’t matter who is president. One is as bad as the other.”

Rep. Mark Green has a backup plan to avoid the political football.

“I’m going to have to track down (longtime Bush adviser) Karl Rove and see if the president can’t get an executive order to change the NFL schedule,” Green said. “This is definitely a big worry.”

Washington Redskins vs. the president

How the Washington Redskins franchise fared the game before presidential elections, and the elections’ outcomes:

2000: Tennessee 27, Redskins 21... Democrats lose White House (George W. Bush defeats Al Gore)

1996: Redskins 31, Indianapolis 16… Democrats keep it (Bill Clinton defeats Bob Dole)

1992: New York Giants 24, Redskins 7… Republicans lose it (Clinton defeats George H.W. Bush)

1988: Redskins 27, New Orleans 24… Republicans keep it (Bush defeats Michael Dukakis)

1984: Redskins 27, Atlanta 14… Republicans keep it (Ronald Reagan defeats Walter Mondale)

1980: Minnesota 39, Redskins 14… Democrats lose it (Reagan defeats Jimmy Carter)

1976: Dallas 20, Redskins 7… Republicans lose it (Carter defeats Gerald Ford)

1972: Redskins 35, New York Jets 17… Republicans keep it (Richard Nixon defeats George McGovern)

1968: Minnesota 27, Redskins 13… Democrats lose it (Nixon defeats Hubert Humphrey)

1964: Redskins 21, Philadelphia 10… Democrats keep it (Lyndon Johnson defeats Barry Goldwater)

1960: Cleveland 31, Redskins 10… Republicans lose it (John Kennedy defeats Nixon)

1956: Redskins 17, Chicago Cardinals 14… Republicans keep it (Dwight Eisenhower defeats Adlai Stevenson)

1952: Pittsburgh 24, Redskins 23… Democrats lose it (Eisenhower defeats Stevenson)

1948: Redskins 51, Boston Yanks 21… Democrats keep it (Harry Truman defeats Thomas Dewey)

1944: Redskins 42, Chi-Pitt 20… Democrats keep it (Franklin Roosevelt defeats Dewey)

1940: Washington Redskins 37, Pittsburgh 10… Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Wendell Willkie)

1936: Boston Redskins 13, Chicago Cardinals 10… Democrats keep it (Roosevelt defeats Alfred Landon)

1932: Boston Braves 7, Chicago Bears 7… Republicans lose it (Roosevelt defeats Herbert Hoover)

[Mark Laliberte]

Can there just be one official thread for Rover and Phil to fling lame insults back and forth at each other?Yeah, it's called the "Suspended" thread!

[REDMEN2002]

Go Redskins!

[ralph_munch]

Ralphie,

Well, I can admit I do have a good job, so there's one thing. I also can safely assume that your one friend in life is phil, which frankly isn't saying much. :eek: Seems "***muchzilla" as you lamely call yourself, isn't much of a man at all.... :cool: Now why don't you get off the computer and find yourself a better job instead of coming out here all day to take brutal but accurate criticisms..... You really are a tool Copley. It makes me sad that you were suspended. Now I can't show everyone else on this board how much of a witless dirtbag you are.

[IanAtKDR]

Wow, 3 flamers suspended in 1 thread. Is that some kind of a record? :rolleyes:

Well, at least now this thread might stay on topic. :)

[Kepler]

on electoral-vote.com:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Here are their trending lines:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html

[NCAA watcher]

Gotta post faster than that Kepler... looks like Bush is back ahead now.:)

[Red Cloud]

An interesting site. They have regression trendlines for each state plus DC that include error bars for Nov. 2nd. I went through and calculated each state based on their trends and error bars, giving swing state status to those states whose error bars for both candidates overlapped, and here's what I got.

Bush: 262
Kerry: 192
Swing States: AZ, AR, FL, IA, MD, NH, NJ, NM

Interestingly, the trend lines indicate a Bush win in each of the swing states without the error bars.

As for other states considered battlegrounders by conventional wisdom, it gives Bush wins in CO, OH, PA, and WI, and gives Kerry wins in MI, MN, and OR.

Also worth mentioning, since it's my home state, is the weird results on NY. Kerry's trendline shows a substantial victory here, yet the error bars are almost touching each other.

Edit: All that work for nothing. The site also has a map based on the same trendlines at http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/sep23p.html.

I did my calculations on the Electoral College Calculator, a fun little tool you can find at http://grayraven.com/ec/.

Further Edit: Up until 2 days ago, the projection of the final map actually included NY as being tied 49-49. :eek:

[Patman]

they are fitting an LS (least-squares) straight line, hardly what an election model should be based on. Now, maybe if they couple that LS line with a Time Series analysis on the residuals of the LS fitting then I'd have a better time believing it.

[Kepler]

Gotta post faster than that Kepler... looks like Bush is back ahead now.:)
Hey, when I posted it was still true. :p

[Red Cloud]

Some more relevant poll updates:

Arizona
ARG: 49-43 Bush
Mason-Dixon: 50-39 Bush

Arkansas
ARG: 48-45 Bush

Colorado Ballot Initiative (Electoral College)
Rocky Mountain News: 47-35 In Favor
Pueblo Chieftain: 51-31 In Favor
This basically means that both candidates will probably get at least two and probably at least three electors from CO if this passes.

Florida
ARG: 46-45 Kerry

Illinois
ARG: 49-43 Kerry
Nader is officially off the ballot in the Land of Lincoln.

Louisiana
ARG: 50-42 Bush

Maryland
WMAR-TV: 48-48
This is where Electoral-vote.com is getting their new information. It's worth noting that the previous poll numbers, which came from ARG, had Kerry up 52-43.

Michigan
ARG: 48-40 Kerry

Missouri
ARG: 50-44 Bush

Nevada
ARG: 47-45 Bush
CNN/Gallup: 52-43 Bush (this poll included Nader as a choice)

New Hampshire
ARG: 47-45 Bush

New Jersey
ARG: 50-42 Kerry
Quinnipiac: 48-48

New Mexico
ARG: 49-44 Kerry

North Carolina
ARG: 49-44 Bush

Ohio
ARG: 48-46 Bush
U. of Cincy: 54-43 Bush

Oregon
KATU-TV: 48-47 Bush
Oregon Supreme Court kicked Nader off the ballot.

Pennsylvania
ARG: 47-46 Kerry

Virginia
ARG: 49-43 Bush

Washington
KING-TV: 51-46 Kerry
Vancouver Columbian: 51-42 Kerry

West Virginia
ARG: 46-46
CNN/Gallup: 51-45 Bush

Wisconsin
ABC News: 53-45 Bush (this poll included Nader as a choice)

[Kepler]

My imagination, or is SurveyUSA consistently way off the beam on the battleground states?

That might, of course, mean they're the only ones who are right -- nobody says the herd has the correct methodology (as 2000 showed).