Electoral Vote Projections

[NCAA watcher]

Hopefully Major Dick will take the time during his suspension to visit a medical professional and get his medications adjusted.

It was that anger that caused him to take on John Kordic back during his junior hockey days. A broken nose was the result of that encounter, although Major can't talk about it because of a pending lawsuit.

[Markt]

It was that anger that caused him to take on John Kordic back during his junior hockey days. A broken nose was the result of that encounter, although Major can't talk about it because of a pending lawsuit.

He says he's not Ritt, and of course he's telling the truth. ;) One has to admit several striking similarities, though -- they even throw the same type of hissy fit. :D

[Rover]

Heh heh heh.

I'm not suprised Major Pyle took it on the chin from the admin, but I would like to state for the record that I wasn't the one that busted him.

Anyway, on to philsey!

First phil, I'm guessing that you're much closer to minimum wage than I am, and as I said in a previous post I can buy and sell you six ways to Sunday, unless in the midst of your job digging latrines you somehow managed to strike oil.... :D :rolleyes:

However, I can't say I'm too worried as you've been disproven on Zogby's accuracy by another poster, and you weaseled out of my other question, which is that I've never heard of anybody claiming Zogby was biased. Now please try to read the posts next time before you respond, and if you're having trouble with the big words, ask your social worker who I assume is educated. :p

Bottom line is this - if Kerry does lose (which I don't think he will) I'll still be out here the next week. If Bush loses, I think its a pretty safe assumption that we've heard the last of phil_dupree. :eek:

[Good Slur]

As a sidenote: John Zogby will be the guest on Bob Brinker's Moneytalk via the ABC Radio Network this coming Sunday, September 26th. The show airs weekends from 1-4 PM Eastern Time. Visit bobbrinker.com to look up station in your area that carries the program.

[Robskillz]

Hopefully Major Dick will take the time during his suspension to visit a medical professional and get his medications adjusted.

I said it in another thread, but Major Richard Sharpe is a character from a series of novels by Bernard Cromwell. Maybe it is an alias after all. :p

[Kepler]

IBD/CSM now has it Bush +3 likely, and +1 registered: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

We're back to square one. Looks like it comes down to 3 debates and Election Day mobilization.

[Red Cloud]

Kerry seems to be on a downward track no matter how you spruce it up. A number of polls are now showing states once thought to be shoo-ins for Kerry to be close. A WBBM-TV poll in Illinois shows only a 49-45 lead for Kerry, which is downright shocking considering the fact that the Dems are riding a strong Senate candidate there.

WABC in New York reports their own poll in New Jersey stands at the same interval for Kerry.

Speaking of the Senate, the Dems are likely to pick up at least two former GOP seats in Illinois (Barack Obama) and Colorado (Ken Salazar).

Elsewhere, Bush seems to be continuing to pick up steam in the swing states... Mason-Dixon reports 48-41 Bush in Missouri, 50-39 Bush in Arizona (which is fast becoming a Bush stronghold), 49-40 Bush in New Hampshire, 49-42 Bush in Ohio, and 50-45 Bush in Nevada. West Virginia looks more competitive, scoring 45-44 Bush, which is statistically even - also Minnesota, which Mason-Dixon scores 46-45 Bush.

Meanwhile, the American Research Group reports the following numbers: 46-45 Bush in Colorado, 47-45 Kerry in Minnesota, 48-44 Kerry in Maine, 47-45 Kerry in Oregon, and 51-44 Kerry in Washington.

So I guess it's safe to stop worrying about the outcome in Arizona and Washington. Bush and Kerry seem to have them wrapped up, respectively, since they continue to make steady gains in both states.

[Kepler]

Mason-Dixon reports 48-41 Bush in Missouri, 50-39 Bush in Arizona (which is fast becoming a Bush stronghold), 49-40 Bush in New Hampshire, 49-42 Bush in Ohio, and 50-45 Bush in Nevada. West Virginia looks more competitive, scoring 45-44 Bush, which is statistically even - also Minnesota, which Mason-Dixon scores 46-45 Bush.
I'm not really worried about any of these except for OH, which is a serious concern. MO and AZ are Bush Country. MN will come around. NV is too effed up to predict either way.

I just don't believe WV is that close: I'd say it's Bush in a walk.

Conversely, I can't see IL going anywhere near Bush. I see Bush's support as capped by his voters last time -- why would anybody who voted against him last time vote for him this time? The only significant source of a Bush increase I can see is either the benefit of demographics (EV shifting gives him, IIRC, 8 extra EV if he takes the same slate), or mobilization of the GOP base (which supposedly was atypically weak in many areas last time).

[Rover]

I agree mostly with Kepler. Although there are far too many divergent polls out there, here's the sense I get.

Arizona and Missouri are now Bush states, and I don't expect that to change. I'm not surprised about Missouri, but I did expect a better showing in Arizona.

I'm really not worried about Oregon, Pennsylvania, or laughably New Jersey. Much like I doubt Bush is worried because some poll recently had him up only 5 in Virginia. These states, based on their leanings will all go to their respective favorites. The upset candidate would need a lead of several points, like at least 4 or 5, in order to be considered a threat to steal the state.

Kerry's "worry" states - Wisconsin clearly, where he may be a few points behind, and Minnesota where he's most likely even, but fighting a small drift rightward in the state.

Bush "worry" states - Nevada (should be up more post-convention in GOP state), Colorado to my own surprise, Florida obviously, New Hampshire, and West Virginia, which I'm not convinced is totally lost based on recent polls. Ohio Kerry does need to do a better job in, but I've generally seen him down 5 or so aside from the GOP poll (strategic vision). Kerry needs to bring that to at most 1-2% Bush by election day to have an even chance that unions pull him through.

In all honestly, I'd certainly want a better showing out of Kerry. However, its really not that bad, and he's going to have to earn it down the stretch. What I would like, realistically to happen for Kerry is to shore up support in Minnie so that he's ahead by a few points in most polls, even up in Wisconsin and close the gap in Ohio. If, and its definitely an if, he can shore up those two states and pull to within a few in Ohio by the end of the month, I'll take it. That sets him up essentually even going into the final 5 weeks, where all he'll need is a decent debate performance to gain some stature. While I'd love to have him up 10 points by now, that was never in the cards with a good portion of the country that will support Bush no matter what.

[phil_dupree]

Heh heh heh.

I'm not suprised Major Pyle took it on the chin from the admin, but I would like to state for the record that I wasn't the one that busted him.

Anyway, on to philsey!

First phil, I'm guessing that you're much closer to minimum wage than I am, and as I said in a previous post I can buy and sell you six ways to Sunday, unless in the midst of your job digging latrines you somehow managed to strike oil.... :D :rolleyes:

However, I can't say I'm too worried as you've been disproven on Zogby's accuracy by another poster, and you weaseled out of my other question, which is that I've never heard of anybody claiming Zogby was biased. Now please try to read the posts next time before you respond, and if you're having trouble with the big words, ask your social worker who I assume is educated. :p

Bottom line is this - if Kerry does lose (which I don't think he will) I'll still be out here the next week. If Bush loses, I think its a pretty safe assumption that we've heard the last of phil_dupree. :eek:

The only thing you are buying and selling, Copley, is your wife on the streets of Lowell. The idea that you could buy and sell Phil Dupree is extremely laughable. It is funny, though, how you get all defensive about your career when someone makes fun of you. What's wrong, didn't your Mom call you today to let you know you are cool?

As for Zogby's alleged bias, why don't you just go to www.zobgy.com and read for yourself where Zogby admits to being a Democrat, though he claims he is unbiased anyway. Since you are borderline incompetent (what's with this borderline stuff?), I'll just cut and paste it for you here:

I've heard so many conflicting stories - is Zogby International a Republican pollster, a Democratic pollster or an Independent pollster?

JZ: "We are independent and nonpartisan. I am personally a Democrat, but the firm does a lot of work for media (like Reuters America, New York Post, St. Louis Post Dispatch, etc.) and we work for both parties."


Wow, that was hard :rolleyes: Whether or not Zogby's personal beliefs play any role into his work is questionable. However, if every other poll is telling you one thing, and Zogby is telling you another, it seems to me that you should question Zogby, unless you are a hardcore Kerry kool-aid drinker looking for any sliver of hope that your boy isn't going to get blown out in November. This is the reason that Phil Dupree thinks that your family should hide all guns, knives, and medication from you on November 2nd, unless they think that cashing in on your life insurance policy would be a better deal that cashing your minimum wage checks, assuming you haven't welched on your premium payments, which I admit isn't very likely. Just remember, in case you decide to off yourself, at least have the decency to duct-tape your driver license to your chest first.

[Rover]

philsey its funny to hear you talk about other people's wives, when its clear to all that the anger spewing from your posts is the result of never having intimate relations with a woman, with the exception of your mother. :eek: You might want to remind her that she can still be prosecuted for that... :p

However, two things still stand. First, I can buy and sell you six ways to Sunday, and the fact that this is true is why you're so upset right now, and second, when Kerry wins you'll be long gone from this board. Deep down, you know both are true. :cool: :D

[phil_dupree]

philsey its funny to hear you talk about other people's wives, when its clear to all that the anger spewing from your posts is the result of never having intimate relations with a woman, with the exception of your mother. :eek: You might want to remind her that she can still be prosecuted for that... :p

However, two things still stand. First, I can buy and sell you six ways to Sunday, and the fact that this is true is why you're so upset right now, and second, when Kerry wins you'll be long gone from this board. Deep down, you know both are true. :cool: :D

Wow, Copley, your comebacks are original. Frankly, I think it is more than a little disturbing that you sit around contemplating my sex life. I guess it must be a fantasy of yours to think about naked guy covered in sweat pumping away on a girl. The fact that you would bring someones mom into the fantasy simply illustrates that you have an oedipus complex that requires immediate intervention by a mental health professional. However, since I'm sure your minimum wage job doesn't provide health benefits, and you are unlikely to be able to afford them yourself, it looks like you are SOL. So, maybe your best bet is to just suck on a tailpipe and chalk up your miserable existence to Mother Nature's malace.

Looks like Zogby released another round of polls today where he magically has many swing states going to John Kerry where every other poll is saying the opposite. So, grab yourself a heeping glass of kool-aid and marry yourself to the false hope that John Kerry is going to be your next President. After all, that is the only hope you have in your life, with your dead end job and your wife seeking fulfillment elsewhere. After that hope is gone as well, I fully expect an apocalyptic meltdown from you, much like one that comes from a mentally retarded kid when someone lets it slip that Santa Claus doesn't exist.

[Rover]

Awww, poor little philsy, did my comments hit a little too close to home? :D

Its not my fault you live in a trailer and are forced to perform for a family member because your daddy's parole got rejected. I had nothing to do with that. Besides, you can always tell your mom that you have a headache, although I can see how it might be kinda hard to avoid her in that crampled trailer you live in. :p

BTW - please keep me out of your fantasies as I have no need to picture a scrawny, putrid, buck toothed yokel like yourself getting it on with some 300 lb hoochee mama that may or may not be a relative. Incidentally, how many times have you and your family been on Jerry Springer anyway? :eek:


Oh, and as far as Zogby goes, nothing in your rantings has disproven that he was the most accurate polster in 2000. Luckily for you, you live in a state that's solidly Dem, even by the GOP's own polls!

[ralph_munch]

When Copley reinvented himself as Rover I thought he might be a bit funnier this time around. I was wrong. Get a grip Copley. You are out of your league.

[Rover]

When Copley reinvented himself as Rover I thought he might be a bit funnier this time around. I was wrong. Get a grip Copley. You are out of your league.

Gee Ralph, and here I was thinking phillsey could fight his own battles. Guess I was wrong on that count.... :eek:

[ralph_munch]

Gee Ralph, and here I was thinking phillsey could fight his own battles. Guess I was wrong on that count.... :eek:Phil doesn't need any help from me to fight a ****** like you. I was merely making the observation that you are even more of a loser as "Rover" than you were when you were Scott Copley.

[Rover]

Ralph you seem like a nice but simple minded guy, so I'll give you a heads up on something. Your opinions are worthless. :D Now don't get me wrong, they may carry some weight at your opossum hunting club and all that. However, out here its a different ballgame.

Basically you and phil remind me of the people you tend to see on "Cops" getting hauled in for being intoxicated, dressed in rags, and not having showered for several weeks. Perhaps you can do us a favor and point out which episode you were featured in so we can put a face to the name....

:cool:

[ralph_munch]

Ralph you seem like a nice but simple minded guy, so I'll give you a heads up on something. Your opinions are worthless. :D Now don't get me wrong, they may carry some weight at your opossum hunting club and all that. However, out here its a different ballgame.

Basically you and phil remind me of the people you tend to see on "Cops" getting hauled in for being intoxicated, dressed in rags, and not having showered for several weeks. Perhaps you can do us a favor and point out which episode you were featured in so we can put a face to the name....

:cool:You need help Copley. It amazes me how you think you are so intelligent because you spend your entire day posting on here under an assumed identity. Good for you Copley. I'm happy that you found something in your life that detracts from the fact that you are a low life and will never amount to anything. Now get back to work before your nineteen year old supervisor fires you for burning another batch of fries.

[Red Cloud]

I see Bush's support as capped by his voters last time -- why would anybody who voted against him last time vote for him this time?
If I didn't already know some of your political leanings I'd give that a :eek: but I think I'll go with :D .

Just got Newsweek's latest projections, which look even worse for the Massachusetts Mauler - they're giving Bush 254 electoral votes in 26 states that are either looking solidly Bush (10+ point leads) or are leaning Bush (5+ point leads), though this includes Ohio and Florida, where their Bush projections are 5 or 6 points up.

Kerry, on the other hand, has a 10+ point lead in only 6 states - NY, VT, MA, RI, DE, and HI. I don't count DC because a) it's not a state, and b) calling it a 10+ point lead doesn't do it justice. :D There are two things every Democratic candidate can always count on: 3 electors from DC and an endorsement from the New York Times.

Mason-Dixon
Michigan: 47-41 Kerry
Iowa: 48-42 Bush
Pennsylvania: 45-44 Kerry
Missouri: 48-41 Bush
Minnesota: 46-44 Bush
New Mexico: 47-43 Bush
Oregon: 47-43 Bush
Wisconsin: 46-44 Bush

Newsweek Tossup States
Arkansas: 48-47 Bush
Colorado: 46-45 Bush
Iowa: 48-46 Bush
Maine: 43-43
Minnesota: 46-44 Bush
Nevada: 51-47 Bush
New Jersey: 43-39 Kerry
New Mexico: 45-42 Bush
Oregon: 47-45 Kerry
Pennsylvania: 46-42 Bush
Wisconsin: 49-45 Bush

Nader: He's now officially off the ballot in Arkansas and New Mexico, which is a boost for Kerry in those battleground states, but he's definitely on in Colorado and Florida. Finally, from Vermont, the Green Party of Vermont has refused to file the official papers for national Green Party nominee David Cobb, and are trying to force Nader onto the ballot under the Green Party name. The outcome doesn't really matter, since he's on the ballot anyway as an independent. It's just humerous.

[Rover]

You need help Copley. It amazes me how you think you are so intelligent because you spend your entire day posting on here under an assumed identity. Good for you Copley. I'm happy that you found something in your life that detracts from the fact that you are a low life and will never amount to anything. Now get back to work before your nineteen year old supervisor fires you for burning another batch of fries.

Ralphie,

It amazes me that you seem to think you deserve some sort of medal for attempting to figure out who I am. Geesh, like I tried to change my posting style or something. :rolleyes:

Now, let phil have his turn on the computer, will ya! I realize the public library you guys are posting from only has one computer with an internet connection, but you've been hogging the thing all day, and phil needs a chance to do his internet tough guy routine too.... :eek: :cool:

BTW - the cold, hard reality of your existence, beyond this message board, is that I've already amounted to far more than you. Now tell me, how does that feel? :p