Electoral Vote Projections

[Jason A]

Kerry is doing what he needs to do, which is sharpening his focus.
I don't necessarily disagree with the rest of your analysis, but Kerry still has a lot of work to do in this area. The other day he was talking about an "excuse presidency." I thought he had nailed it, and that he should continue along that line of criticism. I thought he could use that phrase to paint the adminsitration's actions on big issues like the economy and the war in Iraq, but also on smaller issues such as Bush bringing Cheney along for his 9/11 testimony and his refusal to admit any mistakes he's made in the last three and a half years.

But he wasn't aggressive enough on that phrase, and he has seemed to stray from it, and now today he's got an ad out about Cheney and Halliburton. Too unfocused. The GOP wins elections because they know to keep it simple. These Republican handlers have taken a president who has flip-flopped on handfuls of issues since taking office and turned him into a decisive leader, while painting the challenger as a flip-flopper. How? By repeating it over and over.

Kerry needs to sharpen his focus much more than he has to this point, IMO.

[Major Richard Sharpe]

You know, sometimes you make to easy Gomer...

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=224

Lets see, three polls have them even...one's out in left field. Yeah....what should people believe...

Bottom line is, if you're a conservative you've gotta be worried right now. Bush's numbers are starting to go the wrong way. Kerry is doing what he needs to do, which is sharpening his focus. Now if Bush could hold a GOP convention every two weeks, he'd be okay. Problem is, he can't launch any more big, splashy events to distract from the issues facing the country.

I suspect the most probable outcome now is for Bush's numbers to keep slipping a little and Kerry's to rebound so electorally he has a small advantage by the end of the month. This leads to the debates, where even a draw benefits Kerry as a serious alternative who gains stature by being on the same stage as the incumbent. Unless both Iraq and the economy experience some noticeable gains, or Kerry royally screws up in the debates, Bush's job for the next 6-7 weeks only gets harder....

Yeah, terrified, Bacon. We have Wisconsin and Missouri locked up, and Ohio and Florida virtually locked up (also, isn't it funny that while even Dems admit that NJ and Oregon are in play big time, the same can no longer be said anymore of "shaky" GOP states like Arizona (up 15 points), Arkansas (up 12) and Louisianna (up 12). Meanwhile, Kerry has another disasterous public appearance in front of the National Guard Convention (and has not had a press conference in 36 days), John Edwards is MIA because Democratic focus groups have determined that a sleazy trial lawyer disgusts independents. And, your campaign is about to be implicated in the biggest attempted electoral dirty trick since Watergate with the forged documents (a violation of Texas State Law--a class C felony to be specific). Things really are going great for you guys :rolleyes: Oh, and by the way, the most prestigious of all polling groups has your boy down by double digits. I'm shaking.

By the way, when half of kerry voters can agree with the other half of Kerry's voters about what they want to do in the war on terror, I might show some concern. The Beauty of it is if Kerry plays the hawk, he ticks off 57% of his base. If he plays th dove he assures himself that he has lost the independents and 43% of his base. Rove is just so much smarter than anyone on your side it is almost laughabe watching you idiots trying to play electoral chess with him. He's five moves ahead.

You just keep shouting remain calm, all is well while we drive Brother Fred's car right over you on our way to an electoral college romp.

[Rover]

Jason,

I agree that he's not all the way there yet. However, I do like the attack on Cheney. What people need to believe for Kerry's sake is that Bush has no clue what his admin has done to ordinary people while benefiting a select few. Tax cuts, Iraq and Halliburton all fit into that theme, if they decide to stick to and hammer on it.

Gomer Pyle,

Looks like you've been drinking anti-freeze again. Where are these numbers of yours coming from? Did you poll your militia? :rolleyes: Minnie, Ohio, and Wisconsin are now all moving back towards Kerry's way, with several polls (within the last couple of days, not last week) showing an even race in Ohio and Wisconsin and Kerry up in Minnesota. Keep looking at old number though, chief while I continue to laugh at you. :D

[phil_dupree]

Bottom line is, if you're a conservative you've gotta be worried right now.

Phil Dupree always gets worried when the candiate he supports surges ahead by double digits. :D

[Rimbaud]

Phil Dupree always gets worried when the candiate he supports surges ahead by double digits. :D
In 1 poll when 3 others released at the same time show pretty much a dead heat.

[Rover]

Phil Dupree always gets worried when the candiate he supports surges ahead by double digits. :D

I thought phil dupree always got worried when the school nurse announced over the intercom which students had failed the head lice exam... :eek: :D

[phil_dupree]

It's great to see all you leftists in full meltdown mode! The polls are showing Bush pulling away and you people are trying to spin this into something that's good for Kerry! ***!!!!! :D :D :D

[Todd]

It's great to see all you leftists in full meltdown mode! The polls are showing Bush pulling away and you people are trying to spin this into something that's good for Kerry! ***!!!!! :D :D :D
PD Narcissus:
Rational poster #1: I disagree.
PD Narcissus: [Insert differently-worded baseless screed here]
Rational poster #2: [Insert observation here]
Rational poster #3: [Insert factual analysis here]
PD Narcissus: [Insert [i]ad hominem attack here]
Rational poster #4: [Insert new data analysis here]
PD Narcissus: You're all in denial!
Rational poster #1: Very few people care what you think. None of them are here.
Rational poster #2: You are so predicatable that we could write your posts for you.
Rational poster #3: Like Chicken Little and The Boy Who Cried Wolf before him, if this guy ever did have an actual valid point, it would be lost in all the bluster of biased and false proclamation. If it weren't self-inflicted, I might pity him.
Rational poster #4: Please don't feed the troll...

[K7776S2001]

Jason,

Looks like you've been drinking anti-freeze again. Where are these numbers of yours coming from? Did you poll your militia? :rolleyes: Minnie, Ohio, and Wisconsin are now all moving back towards Kerry's way, with several polls (within the last couple of days, not last week) showing an even race in Ohio and Wisconsin and Kerry up in Minnesota. Keep looking at old number though, chief while I continue to laugh at you. :D


I'm curious where you get you're facts from. Some of what you say is true, some is what you want to believe. Check below to a link of major polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

[Major Richard Sharpe]

Jason,

I agree that he's not all the way there yet. However, I do like the attack on Cheney. What people need to believe for Kerry's sake is that Bush has no clue what his admin has done to ordinary people while benefiting a select few. Tax cuts, Iraq and Halliburton all fit into that theme, if they decide to stick to and hammer on it.

Gomer Pyle,

Looks like you've been drinking anti-freeze again. Where are these numbers of yours coming from? Did you poll your militia? :rolleyes: Minnie, Ohio, and Wisconsin are now all moving back towards Kerry's way, with several polls (within the last couple of days, not last week) showing an even race in Ohio and Wisconsin and Kerry up in Minnesota. Keep looking at old number though, chief while I continue to laugh at you. :D

Sorry Bacon, no matter how many times you repeat it, it doesn't make it true. Care to take a whack why no less a Democratic operative than Pat Gaddell and Howard Wolfson both told Chris Matthews tonight "We are in real trouble in Wisconsin, Missouri and Ohio. If something doesn't change really quickly, we will have to discount those races and see if we can't focus are efforts elsewhere.

I hope you kill yourself the night of the election. Or move to France. Or move to France and than kill yourself.

[Kepler]

Latest Zogby general election trial heat has Bush ahead by 3 points, 47-44%.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Interesting results:

"Do you think George W. Bush deserves to be reelected as president of the United States, or is it time for someone new?"
Someone New is back >= 50% for the first time since 8/14, prior to the SBVT campaign.

However, Bush's right track/wrong track and Iraq numbers have been steadily improving: http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm.

Some of the EV sites have been stirring about the possibly large discrepancy between state polls predictions and actual election day results based on the large number of younger voters who do not have landlines. I'm a little skeptical, but they all seem to be giving that trend some credence.

[jtwcornell91]

Hmm. electionprojection.com (http://electionprojection.com/) has Bush with a razors-edge plurality lead in Oregon, with Nader making up the balance. Given Colorado's proportional allocation initiative (which would be a good idea if everyone did it, but makes no sense for any state to do unitarily), I'm surprised and disappointed that Oregon has not instituted instant runoff voting for its electoral votes. That would actually benefit the majority party in that state by solidifying its hold on the electoral votes, while freeing Nader supporters to vote their conscience on the first ballot.

[screamingeagles]

Latest Zogby general election trial heat has Bush ahead by 3 points, 47-44%.


Some of the EV sites have been stirring about the possibly large discrepancy between state polls predictions and actual election day results based on the large number of younger voters who do not have landlines. I'm a little skeptical, but they all seem to be giving that trend some credence.

I was reading about that to and I can say from personal experience that about 1/2 of my friends in college never got a land-line phone.

Actually probably higher then that we i think about it...

[Rover]

I hope you kill yourself the night of the election. Or move to France. Or move to France and than kill yourself.

Whoa, looks like Major Gomer Pyle's got some anger issues to deal with!

As Zogby, the most reliable pollster has a three point spread, I'd say Kerry and Bush's support levels have stabilized. Now its up to Kerry to make a move back up. As I see it, he's got two of his own states (Minnesota and Wisconsin) that he needs to shore up, and 5 Bush states that he's challenging in (Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, W. Virginia). I'd be interested to see what Zogby's state polls have if there's any out there.

[NCAA watcher]

The land-line issue can be controlled by use of Random Digit Dialing ("RDD"), which would capture cell-phones and the like. It's hard to tell which polls use this method vs. use of sample lists.

[phil_dupree]

Whoa, looks like Major Gomer Pyle's got some anger issues to deal with!

As Zogby, the most reliable pollster has a three point spread, I'd say Kerry and Bush's support levels have stabilized. Now its up to Kerry to make a move back up. As I see it, he's got two of his own states (Minnesota and Wisconsin) that he needs to shore up, and 5 Bush states that he's challenging in (Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, W. Virginia). I'd be interested to see what Zogby's state polls have if there's any out there.


Copley,

Don't you think that it is strange that Zogby is the only pollster that has favorable numbers for Kerry? I wonder why that is? It couldn't be because Zogby is a stated Democrat? No, couldn't be :rolleyes:

As for calling Zogby the "most reliable pollster", I suggest you go back and look at his track record, namely for the 2000 election, before making such a stupid claim.

[Rover]

Copley,

Don't you think that it is strange that Zogby is the only pollster that has favorable numbers for Kerry? I wonder why that is? It couldn't be because Zogby is a stated Democrat? No, couldn't be :rolleyes:

As for calling Zogby the "most reliable pollster", I suggest you go back and look at his track record, namely for the 2000 election, before making such a stupid claim.

Ummm...phil, I'm fairly certain that Zogby has been the most reliable pollster the last two general elections, unless you have different info???

I'm not aware of Zogby's political leanings, nor have I ever heard anybody, aside from yourself, claim his polls were biased. I guess when the poll says something you don't like, its right out of the knuckledragger handbook to question the source.... :cool:

[phil_dupree]

Ummm...phil, I'm fairly certain that Zogby has been the most reliable pollster the last two general elections, unless you have different info???

I'm not aware of Zogby's political leanings, nor have I ever heard anybody, aside from yourself, claim his polls were biased. I guess when the poll says something you don't like, its right out of the knuckledragger handbook to question the source.... :cool:

Zogby had Gore up by 2 points until election day. Not the worst poll out there, but it certainly wasn't the most accurate. I'll leave it up to you to do the google search to verify this. Also, I'll leave it to you to type www.zobgy.com and read on the front page where Zogby admits to being a Democrat. I'm fairly certain that even Scott Copley has the mental and physical ability to do these two things, though it is far from certain.

Your continual belief in the Zogby poll and continual denial of what every other one is telling you is a classic sign of a hardcore Kerry kool-aid drinker who will be physically and mentally crushed when the inevitable happens and George W. Bush is reelected. Your family should do everything possible to hide firearms, sharp objects, and medications from you on election day lest they lose their sole provider (even if it is only at the miminum wage level) when you decide to go postal. However, if you do decide to off yourself in a blind fit of suicidal depression on November 2nd, at least have the common courtesy to pin your identification to your chest like Kurt Cobain did in order to assist the authorities in making a positive identification.

[Jason A]

As for calling Zogby the "most reliable pollster", I suggest you go back and look at his track record, namely for the 2000 election, before making such a stupid claim.
IIRC, Zogby nailed the 2000 election when very few other people did.

It was the 2002 midterms when he dropped the ball.

[Markt]

I hope you kill yourself the night of the election. Or move to France. Or move to France and than kill yourself.

Hopefully Major Dick will take the time during his suspension to visit a medical professional and get his medications adjusted.