Electoral Vote Projections

[Rimbaud]

How in the world would it surprise you that FoxNews would pick the poll numbers that most favor Bush?

I wasn't surprised, I said I was disturbed. :D

[Rover]

Feel free to dismiss this as a partisan analysis, but I'm still a little curious at Bush's strategy. It seems his convention and even his current campaign is an anti-Kerry fest. That's good for a short-term, feel good spike in the polls but I wonder at the long term advantage. It doesn't do any good to peak in September.

My point is, if people aren't for you, in that they like your plans and believe you'll implement them, your support is most likely pretty soft. Once the name calling dies down, votes are likely to reasses their support. I can't think of too many things that Bush is actually running FOR in this election. I wonder if that'll change or not, but now that Kerry has brought a little more focus to his campaign (speaking about health care, jobs, and Iraq all in the last couple of days), you have to wonder if Bush's plans for the economy, getting us out of Iraq, and health care will start to get some scrutiny.

[Todd]

Feel free to dismiss this as a partisan analysis, but I'm still a little curious at Bush's strategy. It seems his convention and even his current campaign is an anti-Kerry fest. That's good for a short-term, feel good spike in the polls but I wonder at the long term advantage. It doesn't do any good to peak in September.

My point is, if people aren't for you, in that they like your plans and believe you'll implement them, your support is most likely pretty soft. Once the name calling dies down, votes are likely to reasses their support. I can't think of too many things that Bush is actually running FOR in this election. I wonder if that'll change or not, but now that Kerry has brought a little more focus to his campaign (speaking about health care, jobs, and Iraq all in the last couple of days), you have to wonder if Bush's plans for the economy, getting us out of Iraq, and health care will start to get some scrutiny.Not from the Far Right they won't. Some moderate Repubs might notice the Emperor's plan has no clothes... and no workable plan.

I'm not saying this to start a flame, although I'm sure that some will take it that way: Psychological studies have shown that the more emotionally someone votes, the more likely they are to vote conservative. The more intellectually they vote, the more likely they are to vote liberal. I may be phrasing that slightly off as I don't have any of the studies in front of me, but, in a nutshell, scared voters vote conservative.

It's completely in Bush's interest (as the candidate anointed as "conservative" although very little he does is actually conservative) to make this not at all about the issues - or any issue at all - but to scream "nine-eleven, nine-eleven, NINE... ELEVEN!!!" as loud as he can, as long as he can. Regardless of anyone's opinion on what happened before, during or after 9/11 or what will happen in the future, making people scared and confused about their future means more votes for the right wing.

[Kepler]

I'm not saying this to start a flame
Then don't, please. There are already a million Cafe threads for picking apart the strategies (which inevitably end in mutual character assassination).

As much as possible, I'd like to keep this thead on polling data, as new polls are released and as the EV boards change. Please. The other threads are there for the partisan/strategic posts.

[Rover]

Speaking electorally, Kerry clearly needs to ramp it up. However, a reasoned look at the map using reliable polling firms indicates to me he hasn't lost an extreme amount of states in the last month.

As best I can tell, he's lost some footing in Wisconsin, where he was up previously but now is at best even and maybe down a couple of points.

He's also lost some footing in Ohio, where he was even or up a few and now he's down say 5% (discounting the GOP poll). While I'm not happy about that, its hardly insurmountable. I'll also concede he's lost ground in Missouri, but personally I never thought he'd win there anyway.

Beyond that, he's still even in Florida, up on New Hampshire, and even in Nevada and Colorado. I don't know exactly where these states will end up on election day, but given the month Kerry's had, it looks like the damage has been limited pretty well.

[Major Richard Sharpe]

Speaking electorally, Kerry clearly needs to ramp it up. However, a reasoned look at the map using reliable polling firms indicates to me he hasn't lost an extreme amount of states in the last month.

As best I can tell, he's lost some footing in Wisconsin, where he was up previously but now is at best even and maybe down a couple of points.

He's also lost some footing in Ohio, where he was even or up a few and now he's down say 5% (discounting the GOP poll). While I'm not happy about that, its hardly insurmountable. I'll also concede he's lost ground in Missouri, but personally I never thought he'd win there anyway.

Beyond that, he's still even in Florida, up on New Hampshire, and even in Nevada and Colorado. I don't know exactly where these states will end up on election day, but given the month Kerry's had, it looks like the damage has been limited pretty well.


So how much do you collect from the DNC every month for your paycheck. Reading your post is like watching Kevin Bacon in Animal House yelling "Remain calm, all is well." He of course was trampled into the pavement. Hopefully the same will happen to you.

Kerry is lights out in Wisconsin--down 8 points, that's a knock out at this point. Ditto for Minnesota and Missouri where short of Bush being caught having lunch with OBL, those races are over and Dems are starting to cut back on ad dollars and refocus them elsewhere. Michigan is two points away from being lights out, as are Florida and Ohio. The only swing state that is really in play is Pennsylvania, but even there, Bush is winning.

What must be really giving Kerry ulcers this morning is the fact that the People's Republic of New York, where he once lead by 50-35 in August, is now, according to MSNBC, officially in play with Kerry clinging to a 45-41 lead. I'd still concede New York to Kerry, but the fact that it is even close shows that it is all falling apart for the former PDRoV Agent.

[Kepler]

Speaking electorally, Kerry clearly needs to ramp it up. However, a reasoned look at the map using reliable polling firms indicates to me he hasn't lost an extreme amount of states in the last month.
My take is that while he is still very much in it, he has started to run out of runway. Back when it looked as though he would seriously challenge in MO and even AZ, it was a matter of how much Bush would rebound in states that by all rights ought to go to him. OK, Bush recovered those states, and the battle is really being waged now where we thought it would be, the "true" purples, which is to say, OH, FL, and noise.

[Rover]

So how much do you collect from the DNC every month for your paycheck. Reading your post is like watching Kevin Bacon in Animal House yelling "Remain calm, all is well." He of course was trampled into the pavement. Hopefully the same will happen to you.

Kerry is lights out in Wisconsin--down 8 points, that's a knock out at this point. Ditto for Minnesota and Missouri where short of Bush being caught having lunch with OBL, those races are over and Dems are starting to cut back on ad dollars and refocus them elsewhere. Michigan is two points away from being lights out, as are Florida and Ohio. The only swing state that is really in play is Pennsylvania, but even there, Bush is winning.



Major Gomer Pyle,

I'm more like D-Day actually. I'm guessing you're a dead ringer for Neidermeyer. :eek:

Your polls seem to be conducted using yourself and three friends as the sample. No offense, but that's not a statistically signficant sample, especially when the combined IQ of the subjects doesn't even equal room temperature. :D

Kepler,

Too many Dems (not you, but in general) seem to worry that not every state that was thought to be in play remains so. Personally I look at it like this - of the Gore states, Bush is making a seriously play really in Wisconsin. Not bad IMO, as polls today showed Kerry stronger in Michigan and Minnesota.

Now look at Bush states that Kerry's currently (as in this week) making a play for: Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Colorado. I have no idea where W. Virginia stands, so I'll leave that out. Yeah, I'd like to see Arizona closer no doubt. I never had high hopes for Missouri. Regardless, although as you say he's got a shorter playing field, he's still playing on Bush's turf. Of course, he needs to tighten up his game a little bit....

[Todd]

Then don't, please. There are already a million Cafe threads for picking apart the strategies (which inevitably end in mutual character assassination).

As much as possible, I'd like to keep this thead on polling data, as new polls are released and as the EV boards change. Please. The other threads are there for the partisan/strategic posts.Not a problem. I was simply trying to address Rover's Q re: strategy.

[alnorman]

Too many Dems (not you, but in general) seem to worry that not every state that was thought to be in play remains so. Personally I look at it like this - of the Gore states, Bush is making a seriously play really in Wisconsin. Not bad IMO, as polls today showed Kerry stronger in Michigan and Minnesota.

Now look at Bush states that Kerry's currently (as in this week) making a play for: Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Colorado. I have no idea where W. Virginia stands, so I'll leave that out. Yeah, I'd like to see Arizona closer no doubt. I never had high hopes for Missouri. Regardless, although as you say he's got a shorter playing field, he's still playing on Bush's turf. Of course, he needs to tighten up his game a little bit....

New Jersey (http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ040915president.pdf)
Illinois (http://cbs2chicago.com/politics/local_story_259190721.html)




Any Jimmy Buffett fans here???

[phil_dupree]

New Jersey (http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/NJ040915president.pdf)
Illinois (http://cbs2chicago.com/politics/local_story_259190721.html)




Any Jimmy Buffett fans here???


Rover Copley has taken in so much kool-aid that it doesn't seem to matter how many times you state the obvious. The Kerry campaign is melting down and imploding as we speak. There is a virtual civil war between the clintonistas and the chappaquiddicks for control of the Jean Kerry campaign. As Major Sharpe said, it's lights out. Hopefully scoobydoo flies solo!

[Kepler]

Not a problem. I was simply trying to address Rover's Q re: strategy.
No harm, no foul. :)

[Kepler]

Electoral Vote.com had an interesting analysis of the latest state polls this morning (9/16): http://www.electoral-vote.com/

"Several polls today give contradictory results. In states such as Illinois, New York, and Oregon, Kerry's lead is shrinking to 4%, 8%, and 3%, respectively. Bush is unlikely to win any of these states, but Kerry is clearly having problems there.

On the other hand, Kerry is doing better in some of the key battleground states. A new Gallup poll in Michigan puts him ahead 50% to 44%. An ABC News poll in Pennsylvania cuts Bush's lead to a bare 1%, 49% to 48%, a data point corroborated by the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll. And in all-important Ohio, the Rassmussen 7-day tracking poll also puts Bush ahead by a mere 1%, 49% to 48%. The Strategic Vision poll stays in the spreadsheet for the moment, but tomorrow Rasmussen's becomes more recent and will take over."


If those are trends and not just noise, it means PA and OH will leave the Bush column and enter the MoE no-man's land.

Over on Blogging Casaer (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html), WI, NM, OR, ME (district 2), and MN all switched back to Kerry based on state polls. That erases all of Bush's state gains since the RNC, except for IO, which has been wobbling like a first daughter, and has now swapped back to Bush.

OTOH, whereas it used to be that Bush had the majority of states with margin < 1.0% on the BC site, it is now reversed, which means Kerry would be most disadvantageously affected by random fluctuations in the data.

If you think this is a two state race (OH, FL) like I do, here are the current BC figures:

OH: Bush +4.4%
FL: Bush +2.5%

Somebody mentioned WV earlier. My impression, living right next door, is that it is a fire-and-forget Bush state. BC has Bush at +9.8%, and that seems correct (and decisive) to me.

[Rover]

Kepler,

I'm really having trouble with this particular site because they're using Survey USA, who IMO is the most unreliable firm out there (that goes for whether their numbers favor Bush or Kerry). It would be nice if Zogby or even Rassmussen as you say put out more updated polls.

[Red Cloud]

"Several polls today give contradictory results. In states such as Illinois, New York, and Oregon, Kerry's lead is shrinking to 4%, 8%, and 3%, respectively. Bush is unlikely to win any of these states, but Kerry is clearly having problems there. Problems? If anyone thinks being up by 8 points in New York is a problem, go smoke another one. In big states like New York and Illinois, being down 4 to 8 points is awfully difficult to come back from... you need to convert more people per point.

Not that I wouldn't like to see Bush contend for New York... even just for the sport of it. I wouldn't mind for my vote to be somewhat meaningful.

[alnorman]

Kepler,

I'm really having trouble with this particular site because they're using Survey USA, who IMO is the most unreliable firm out there (that goes for whether their numbers favor Bush or Kerry). It would be nice if Zogby or even Rassmussen as you say put out more updated polls.
FYI, Rasumussen was the most unreliable national polling service in 2000, at least when you comparied their final polls to the actual results.

[HockeyBum]

Several polls today give contradictory results.

The two major newspapers in the Twin Cities have contradictory findings for Minnesota. Yesterday, the Minneapolis Star Tribune had Kerry ahead 50% to 41% with Bush gaining ground. This morning, the St. Paul Pioneer Press had Bush 46% to Kerry 44%.

Bush is campaigning through Minnesota again today. This state is definitely up for grabs.

[Rover]

FYI, Rasumussen was the most unreliable national polling service in 2000, at least when you comparied their final polls to the actual results.

I can believe that. My list of unreliable firms starts with the Field poll because they're ridiculously biased. At least Strategic Vision doesn't hide the fact that they're a GOP polling firm. Survey USA seems all over the place, so I'm really not sure how they conduct their surveys. Rassmussen isn't great, but they seem a little better than the ones I've mentioned (which I realize isn't saying much.... ;) ).

Zogby still seems the best IMO.

Oh, as far as the race goes, it looks like Kerry's starting to improve a bit, most likely becuase he's getting a little more focus. Why I say he's improved is because last week all the polls were going increasingly against him, and now he's recovered in some places (MN, PN, MI, etc) and pulled about even in a few national polls. He needs to stick with more lines like the "excuse Presidency".

[Kepler]

Another EV map, from Tripias: http://www.tripias.com/state/

This one is nice in that it gives its methodology right up front: http://www.tripias.com/state/methods.html

I haven't tried yet, but it allows you to change the criteria and generate your own maps -- in other words, you can do custom methodologies with custom selection of data sources!!! Let me know if you try this out.

Here is the page with the methodology options; very spiffy: http://www.tripias.com/state/custom.html

[Rimbaud]

The two major newspapers in the Twin Cities have contradictory findings for Minnesota. Yesterday, the Minneapolis Star Tribune had Kerry ahead 50% to 41% with Bush gaining ground. This morning, the St. Paul Pioneer Press had Bush 46% to Kerry 44%.

Bush is campaigning through Minnesota again today. This state is definitely up for grabs.
If MN votes for Bush, I'm never moving back to MN. :D