View Full Version : Electoral Vote Projections
Kepler
11-02-2004, 04:12 PM
Frm NJ's Hotline, a rundown of the final national poll conducted by major media and polling organizations.:
<pre>
Bush Kerry Nader
ABC News/Wash. Post (10/28-31; 2,904 LVs; +/- 2%) 49% 48% 1%
American Research Grp (10/28-30;1,258 LVs; +/-2.8%) 48 48 1
CBS/New York Times (10/29-11/1; 939 LVs; +/-3%) 49 47 1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup (10/29-31; 1,573 LVs; +/-3%) 49 49 1
Democracy Corps (D) (10/29-31; 1,018 LVs; +/-3.1%) 47 48 1
Fox News (10/30-31; 1,200 LVs; +/-3%) 46 48 1
GWU/Battleground (11/1; 500 LVs; +/-3.1%) 50 46 1
Harris (10/29-11/1; 1,092 LVs; +/-3%) 49 48 2
ICR (10/27-31; 473 LVs; +/- 4.5%)* 48 47 1
Marist (11/1; 987 LVs; +/-3.5%) 49 50 *
NBC/WSJ (10/29-31; 1,014 LVs; +/-3.1%) 48 47 1
Newsweek (10/27-29; 882 LVs; +/-4%) 50 44 1
Pew (10/27-30; 1,925 LVs; +/-2.5%) 48 45 1
TIPP (10/30-11/1; 1,284 LVs; +/-2.8%) 50 48 1
Zogby Int'l/Reuters (10/29-31; 1208 LVs; +/-3%) 48 47 1
Economist/YouGov (10/29-11/1; 1870 LV) 47 50 1
Rasmussen Reports (11/1) 50 48 -
</pre>
Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews923.html) link that will be updated through 5:00 tonight.
Of note:
Even if Bush gets Ohio and Florida (which went to Bush last time), they're tied at 252 (and counting) because Zogby has Kerry taking both NH and CO (which Gore did not).
Pennsylvania (was Gore's) and ... Virginia (was Bush's) are tied. At that point, VA becomes irrelevant (13 puts neither over).
With Kerry leading in PA for a good while, if the numbers play out, this projection leans slightly Kerry with a whole lot of wiggle room in the real world for either candidate.
Virginia[/i] (was Bush's) are tied. At that point, VA becomes irrelevant (13 puts neither over).
I hadn't seen that. The Virginia thing is interesting. VA is definitely one state that is trending Democratic with the rapid expansion of the DC metro area. From what I've seen in person and heard from co-workers and the Washington Post, turnout in NoVa is extremely high. Is it enough to cancel out the rest of this redneck state? Probably not, but I bet it will be closer than anybody (except Zogby) thinks.
Jason A
11-02-2004, 05:28 PM
Zogby flip-flops all over the place and has Kerry winning big (in the EC). Why doesn't he just wait until January 20, release a new poll, and claim he was right about every state? http://zogby.com ;)
Bruce Ciskie
11-02-2004, 05:36 PM
Zogby is nuts. :D
(I really disagree with the call on Ohio right now. I still think Bush is going to pull it out there. For his sake, he'd better. If he doesn't, it throws my Bush projection out the window.)
The Sicatoka
11-02-2004, 05:40 PM
Question:
What percentage of those exit polled would lie to the pollster just to screw them up, especially after the 2000 debacle?
I won't guess at a percentage, but I'll guess at a number: At least 1. If they'd have asked me I'd have told them the other guy, the guy I didn't vote for. :D
jtwcornell91
11-02-2004, 05:44 PM
I have a hard time seeing VA go blue, but I'm not sure whether I'd put it more in the category of MN or NJ going red.
trucker
11-02-2004, 05:47 PM
Some exit poll results from Slate:
The 4 p.m. ET exit-poll numbers:
Florida
Kerry 52
Bush 48
Ohio
Kerry 52
Bush 47
Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Pennsylvania
Kerry 58
Bush 42
Iowa
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Wisconsin
Kerry 53
Bush 47
Minnesota
Kerry 57
Bush 42
New Hampshire
Kerry 58
Bush 41
Maine
Kerry 55
Bush 44
New Mexico
Kerry 49
Bush 49
Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 49
Colorado
Kerry 49
Bush 50
Arkansas
Kerry 45
Bush 54
Continue Article
Matt1331
11-02-2004, 05:49 PM
I was out on the road, couldn't help but turn on some right wing talk shows, they are spinning out of control with these early returns.........
Kerry.
Matt
p.s. just let me have a Daschle loss
The Sicatoka
11-02-2004, 05:51 PM
Question:
Don't most states swing "more red" as the evening goes on because of "red"-type voters being more prone to vote on the way home after their day? Wasn't that a phenomena somewhat seen in 2000?
unofan
11-02-2004, 05:52 PM
Sic, typically, yes.
Rimbaud
11-02-2004, 05:55 PM
p.s. just let me have a Daschle loss
Only if you promise to give up DeLay.
Bruce Ciskie
11-02-2004, 05:55 PM
just let me have a Daschle loss
I don't know enough about Thune to not like him. I can't stand Daschle, and I hope he loses.
Matt1331
11-02-2004, 05:58 PM
Only if you promise to give up DeLay.
I don't know enough about that to offer him up, but a few days ago I was willing to offer up control of the Senate for the next two years (we let 06 be 06) for a Daschle loss.
Matt
The Sicatoka
11-02-2004, 06:00 PM
I don't know enough about Thune to not like him. I can't stand Daschle, and I hope he loses.
Uh, guys, lose Daschle and the new top Dem in the Senate could well become North Dakota's very own "Senator Combover" Byron Dorgan (UND, 1964).
I don't buy that as a big upgrade (other than being a UND alumnus).
Matt1331
11-02-2004, 06:05 PM
Uh, guys, lose Daschle and the new top Dem in the Senate could well become North Dakota's very own "Senator Combover" Byron Dorgan (UND, 1964).
I don't buy that as a big upgrade (other than being a UND alumnus).
One at a time, one at a time.
Matt
Rimbaud
11-02-2004, 06:10 PM
I don't know enough about that to offer him up, but a few days ago I was willing to offer up control of the Senate for the next two years (we let 06 be 06) for a Daschle loss.
Matt
There's whole shady redistricting of TX, there's him basically stealing money from Native American Groups saying that he'd help them out but never did (that's a toss up, it may just be people who were once closely associated to DeLay using his name to fleece them and not DeLay himself), and a bunch of other real shady stuff too. You can go to the highly partisan http://www.takingontomdelay.com/ website to get some info if you must. NPR has done a number of stories on him the past few months, and everytime I think he's hit a new low, he keeps sinking.
The Sicatoka
11-02-2004, 06:17 PM
p.s. just let me have a Daschle loss
http://www.drudgereport.com/ is reporting Thune as the projected winner.
Senate
Winners: Martinez FL Thune SD Bunning KY Salazar CO //
Losers: Bowles NC Coors Co
Rimbaud
11-02-2004, 06:22 PM
http://www.drudgereport.com/ is reporting Thune as the projected winner.
He's also claiming that people shouldn't take the early exit polls seriously. Which one is it?
The Sicatoka
11-02-2004, 06:24 PM
He's also claiming that people shouldn't take the early exit polls seriously. Which one is it?
Both: Don't take Daschle seriously. :D ;) :D
Hey, I already pondered around here somewhere about people fibbing to the exit pollers. Let's start a campaign now to do that in 2008. I have the slogan: "Pole the pollsters!" ;) :D
vBulletin v3.6.0, Copyright ©2000-2009, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.