Electoral Vote Projections

[Rover]

I'm not sure looking at averages is exactly the correct thing to do in the last hours before the election. If you look at some of the polls used in the average it looks like that in the case of Ohio for instance its a date range of 10/20 - 10/31. I'm not sure how it makes a difference what the polls were on the 20th anymore. Just a thought.

That's a good point. How relavent is two week old polling data? What I will say is that is seems Kerry's inched up slightly in key states in the past week (Florida and Ohio most notably). Whether you think he'll win those same states depends on whether or not you think he was behind or even when his ascent began.

Tom, if Bush was a less devisive President I might think that in a time of war that undecided principle might not hold. The problem is people by a small amount are against the war, unlike any other time save for Vietnam, and with Bush you either love him - in which case he already has your vote, or you don't - in which case IMO the principle will turn out to be true.

Matt, I'm going to be watching those poll numbers, and if that comes true, then its bon-appetite for you, complete with pictures that you can post out here!

[GOPHER FREAK]

I think Minnesota will likely go to Kerry, but if it goes to Kerry by 8 points, I will personally pick up next Sunday's edition and go downtown Minneapolis and sit in front of the Star Tribune headquarters and eat the entire Sunday paper.

The Star Tribune has no shame in being completely off.

Matt

Actually, I seen four polls besides the Strib poll. 3of the 4 had Bush 1-2 points ahead.

Just a note for anyone not familiar with Star Tribune polling, The had Walter Mondale ahead of Norm Coleman by 7-8 points in 2002. Norm Coleman won by like 5 points. The Star Tribune's record is god awful in any kind of polling.

[Red Cloud]

One last time.

ARIZONA
SurveyUSA: 56-41 Bush

COLORADO
Zogby: 48-47 Bush
SurveyUSA: 52-46 Bush

FLORIDA
Zogby: 48-47 Kerry
CNN/Gallup: 49-46 Kerry
Fox News: 49-44 Kerry

IOWA
Zogby: 50-44 Kerry
SurveyUSA: 49-49
CNN/Gallup: 48-46 Bush
Fox News: 48-44 Bush

MAINE
SurveyUSA: 51-44 Kerry

MICHIGAN
Zogby: 52-45 Kerry
SurveyUSA: 50-47 Kerry

MINNESOTA
Zogby: 49-47 Kerry
CNN/Gallup: 52-44 Kerry

NEVADA
Zogby: 50-45 Bush

NEW MEXICO
Zogby: 49-49

OHIO
Zogby: 48-44 Bush
CNN/Gallup: 50-46 Kerry
Fox News: 50-47 Bush

PENNSYLVANIA
Zogby: 50-45 Kerry
CNN/Gallup: 50-46 Bush

WISCONSIN
Zogby: 51-44 Kerry
CNN/Gallup: 52-44 Bush
Fox News: 48-45 Bush

F this. Another day of these completely diametric polls and I'd something something.

Bellweather states:
Kerry: PA and MN
Bush: NV and CO

[Kepler]

CNN/Gallup is either going to look *really* good or *really* bad. They're way out on a limb in WI, OH and PA.

[Todd]

Well, that's certainly true. In fact, I agree.

The question here is that absentee and early voting, in theory, don't become actual votes until November 2. If a person dies before November 2, then, in theory, they would not be eligible to vote in that election - you have to be living in order to vote. A technicality, I think.

Look at it this way. A man sends in an absentee ballot, and then kills his wife the next day. Should his vote count? On Election Day, he's in jail awaiting trial on a felony charge. By law, it ought not count.First of all, at that point, having not been convicted I would think his vote would still count, but let's assume that he in fact has been convicted in such a short time.

His vote should still count. When he cast the vote, he was legally able to do so.

A counter analogy: let's say a volatile mayoral election comes down to a very few votes. Candidate A is ahead by 10. There is a huge riot in the streets during the recount, during which many felonies are committed. The recount shows that Candidate B actually should have won the original vote by 2, but during the riot, 3 more B-backers became felons than did A-Backers. Does that mean that A actually wins by one?

[Matt1331]

Matt, I'm going to be watching those poll numbers, and if that comes true, then its bon-appetite for you, complete with pictures that you can post out here!

Rover,

I don't know if I would do the pictures, but trust me I will eat that Star Tribune Sunday Edition if Kerry wins this state by 8 points.

Matt

[Matt1331]

MINNESOTA

CNN/Gallup: 52-44 Kerry



Shlt.

Matt

[Todd]

FWIW...
From states where early voting takes place, there were exit polls taken of those who have *actually* voted so far:

FL - 30% of RV already in - 51-43 for Kerry (rough numbers: out of 10.7 million RV, that's: 1,637,100 - 1,380,300. Kerry's up by 256,800 with a maximum of 7,490,000 to go.)

IA - 27% of RV already in - 52-41 for Kerry (rough numbers: out of 2.06 million RV, that's: 289,224 - 228,042. Kerry's up by 61,182 with a maximum of 1,503,800 to go.)

When IA Gov Tom Vilsack spoke on Friday, he said that with about 400,000 votes cast, Kerry was up about 55,000. With 100,000 more votes cast, Kerry's advantage has grown to over 61,000.

[Bob Gray]

How can they be releasing voting results when for us normal voters it isn't even election day yet, let alone waiting until the polls close! I find it very troubling that people would be putting early voter results out before polls close and even before election day! That just doesn't seem right.

[Kepler]

I thought it was not legal to release exit polling data until the polls had closed?

(As a matter of opinion on this, I agree completely with Bob.)

[Robskillz]

Anyone else think Bush made a tactical error by spending time in the past two weeks in states like New Jersey that he likely won't win instead of even more in Ohio and Pennsylvania? Also, I don't understand Cheney in Hawaii when he could hit more states by staying on the mainland.

[Kepler]

I think it was a tactical error for Bush to go to a place where crossovers were needed. His strong suit is getting the hardcores out -- he should be in rural communities throughout OH, WI, MN, and maybe PA. If you want to hit NJ, send Rudy or the Terminator.

OTOH, I thought it was dumb for Kerry to even do a touch-and-go in NH.

[Robskillz]

I think it was a tactical error for Bush to go to a place where crossovers were needed. His strong suit is getting the hardcores out -- he should be in rural communities throughout OH, WI, MN, and maybe PA. If you want to hit NJ, send Rudy or the Terminator.

Yup. That's exactly what I've been thinking too.

[NCAA watcher]

I think it was a tactical error for Bush to go to a place where crossovers were needed. His strong suit is getting the hardcores out -- he should be in rural communities throughout OH, WI, MN, and maybe PA. If you want to hit NJ, send Rudy or the Terminator.

OTOH, I thought it was dumb for Kerry to even do a touch-and-go in NH.

Also, read recently how Karl Rove likes to make the candidate look like they're winning, so perhaps sending him to those Democratic states was to send a message about how far ahead he was so that "even NJ" was in play.

[Markt]

OTOH, I thought it was dumb for Kerry to even do a touch-and-go in NH.

It's not his fault. People from MA are genetically programmed to come to NH at every possible opportunity.

[Kepler]

One more poll: http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?p=1630960#post1630960

[Rover]

I don't see how releasing exit polls of early voting is any different than say polling overseas military on their preferences, since I believe they make up the majority of absentee ballots, you can also get a sense ahead of election day how a segment of the population voted.

What would be wrong IMO is to release early voting numbers ahead of election day. While that might seem farfetched now, don't be surprised if there's some movement for that in the not to distant future.

As far as Bush going to Dem states, you have to give Rove and his crew credit for being consistant. They've run a "our election is inevitable" strategy all along.

[Nick]

Where did this info come from?

FWIW...
From states where early voting takes place, there were exit polls taken of those who have *actually* voted so far:

FL - 30% of RV already in - 51-43 for Kerry (rough numbers: out of 10.7 million RV, that's: 1,637,100 - 1,380,300. Kerry's up by 256,800 with a maximum of 7,490,000 to go.)

IA - 27% of RV already in - 52-41 for Kerry (rough numbers: out of 2.06 million RV, that's: 289,224 - 228,042. Kerry's up by 61,182 with a maximum of 1,503,800 to go.)

When IA Gov Tom Vilsack spoke on Friday, he said that with about 400,000 votes cast, Kerry was up about 55,000. With 100,000 more votes cast, Kerry's advantage has grown to over 61,000.

[Kepler]

I don't see how releasing exit polls of early voting is any different than say polling overseas military on their preferences
It's the difference between the questions "Who do you like?" and "Whom did you vote for?" There's been a bright line between those questions, and I don't want to see it blurred.

[Robskillz]

As far as Bush going to Dem states, you have to give Rove and his crew credit for being consistant. They've run a "our election is inevitable" strategy all along.

Steadfastly wrong. That has been Bush's thing. You're right there. ;)