Electoral Vote Projections

[K7776S2001]

Don't feel a need to for an obviously sarcastic comment in response to his dig at me.


Ahh so now were back at the fact that you don't care that you made a statement of wishing harm to REPIRED. Good to hear. Nice circle! Goodnight :rolleyes:

[Robskillz]

Ahh so now were back at the fact that you don't care that you made a statement of wishing harm to REPIRED. Good to hear. Nice circle! Goodnight :rolleyes:

And you think I'm the one spinning? Yikes.

[jtwcornell91]

So in other words, it's your point versus THE point (i.e., the legal standard).

Isn't part of the point of the article that different states have different legal standards (and some none at all) on this issue?

[unofan]

Unlike traditional mail-in absentee ballots that are stored in labeled envelopes and can be pulled if someone dies, most of the new "in-person" early voting is being done on machines with no paper ballot to tell how those people voted.


So if a person in Florida casts an early ballot, then is run over by a truck right outside the polling place, there's no way to rescind the vote. But the vote of a Florida soldier who mails an absentee ballot from Iraq (news - web sites), then is killed in action, won't — or shouldn't — be counted.

This leads me to believe the general legal standard is that such votes should not count, but that they often do (edit, except for those states who explicitly allow such votes to count which were named later on).

[Buff]

Look at it this way. A man sends in an absentee ballot, and then kills his wife the next day. Should his vote count? On Election Day, he's in jail awaiting trial on a felony charge. By law, it ought not count.

Bad analogy. If he's in jail awaiting trial, he's not a convicted felon and therefore not disenfranchised. Pesky little "innocent until proven guilty" legal maxim and all.

[Kepler]

Probably one of the few thing besides the Mets I'll ever agree with Kepler on.I actually kinda like Minnesota hockey, too, because they were a fun group to hang with during the '97 Western regional, and because they're not North Dakota. So, there's three things. :D

[Kepler]

Back to the salt mines... Polling Report (http://www.pollingreport.com/) has their penulitmate day polling up, and it could not be closer, literally. CNN/Gallup/USA Today, which had Bush as much as +5% a week ago, is now 49-49 dead heat among likely and 48-46 Kerry among registered on one phrasing, and 49-47 Bush among likely and 48-47 Kerry among registered on a slightly altered phrasing.

Here are the bar charts, with all black=final: http://www.pollingreport2.com/#bars

Here are the 2000 final polls: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2genT.htm . Note that they tended to underestimate Gore by 3-6% (but also note that most of this was an overestimate of Nader, and hence may be irrelevant this time).

Bush's job approval is 51%, but 52% of voters think we are headed in the "wrong direction," so that's probably a wash.

Here are the EV site counts, as of this morning.

Kerry Bush Link
283 246 http://www.electoral-vote.com/ (Takes a while to load!)
291 247 http://www.mydd.com/popup.html
252 286 http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
296 242 http://www.race2004.net/
186 222 http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm (130 toss up)
262 276 http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php
243 295 http://www.tripias.com/state/ (Default)


RCP battleground averages:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
• Florida: Bush + 1.0
• Ohio: Kerry +0.4
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.0
• Wisconsin: Bush + 0.2
• Iowa: TIE
• Minnesota: Kerry +2.2
• Michigan: Kerry +3.3
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.0
• Nevada: Bush + 4.0
• New Hampshire: Kerry +1.3

[Red Cloud]

RCP battleground averages:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
• Florida: Bush + 1.0
• Ohio: Kerry +0.4
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.0
• Wisconsin: Bush + 0.2
• Iowa: TIE
• Minnesota: Kerry +2.2
• Michigan: Kerry +3.3
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.0
• Nevada: Bush + 4.0
• New Hampshire: Kerry +1.3

Given those numbers (and an unclear Iowa) you get this:
Bush 269
Kerry 262

Which means that a Bush win in Iowa gives him the Presidency immediately, a Kerry win gives us 269-269.

Of course, the Kerry lead in Ohio and the Bush lead in Wisconsin mean absolutely jack. The others are at least plausible since they're 1%+ in an averaged number.

[Kepler]

It comes down to whether the Incumbent/Undecided Rule operates in the battleground states. If so, Kerry will win. If not, Bush will win. The alleged massive influx of new registrations favoring Kerry or the alleged hidden reserve of conservative Christians who didn't vote last time but will this time, seems like hot air to me.

[Rover]

I really don't like using the average polling because one off the wall estimate, for both sides, throws off the average.

Beyond that I don't see why the press and some others are so nervous about a 269-269 tie. The process for resolving that is in the Constitution, which is the House decides, and that'll go to Bush. While I don't like Bush, that is the process and if it comes to that so be it.

Personally though, I don't expect it to be that close. :cool:

[Kepler]

Agreed. 269-269, while a lousy result, would at least be a smooth and defined Constitutional outcome.

[K7776S2001]

RCP battleground averages:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
• Florida: Bush + 1.0
• Ohio: Kerry +0.4
• Pennsylvania: Kerry +2.0
• Wisconsin: Bush + 0.2
• Iowa: TIE
• Minnesota: Kerry +2.2
• Michigan: Kerry +3.3
• New Mexico: Bush + 2.0
• Nevada: Bush + 4.0
• New Hampshire: Kerry +1.3



I'm not sure looking at averages is exactly the correct thing to do in the last hours before the election. If you look at some of the polls used in the average it looks like that in the case of Ohio for instance its a date range of 10/20 - 10/31. I'm not sure how it makes a difference what the polls were on the 20th anymore. Just a thought.

[Mark Laliberte]

Agreed. 269-269, while a lousy result, would at least be a smooth and defined Constitutional outcome.That means that 538 people (and 1 in particular in West Virginia) who possess EV hold the fate of our nation and, perhaps, the world on their shoulders. :eek:

[Clifton]

IMHO, the consequences of a 269-269 tie won't be a big deal, so long as the winner in the House is also the winner of the popular vote. If not, then hold on tight for the next four years!!!

[Kepler]

Here's a nice disclaimer on all polling by Harris: http://www.pollingreport.com/sampling.htm

It sums up nicely the major problems with polling both with respect to sampling and (the far bigger and more decisive problems) with the polling design/process itself.

The bottom line is, vote as if you don't know who is going to win, because you don't. ;)

[NCAA watcher]

You mean this Harris?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/2004-09-26-harris_x.htm

"I don't understand how a first-rate firm can proceed in this way," U.S. District Judge Jack Weinstein remarked at one point. "It seems shoddy to me."

[Matt1331]

MINNESOTA
Minneapolis Star-Tribune: 49-41 Kerry



I think Minnesota will likely go to Kerry, but if it goes to Kerry by 8 points, I will personally pick up next Sunday's edition and go downtown Minneapolis and sit in front of the Star Tribune headquarters and eat the entire Sunday paper.

The Star Tribune has no shame in being completely off.

Matt

[Red Cloud]

It comes down to whether the Incumbent/Undecided Rule operates in the battleground states. If so, Kerry will win. If not, Bush will win. The alleged massive influx of new registrations favoring Kerry or the alleged hidden reserve of conservative Christians who didn't vote last time but will this time, seems like hot air to me.In time of war the Incumbent/Undecided rule has always had less of an impact than in time of peace.

[Kepler]

Electoral Vote.com has its final update out: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[ihw30]

Electoral Vote.com has its final update out: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Thanks, I think you have done a great job keeping up with this stuff.