Electoral Vote Projections [Archive] - Page 19

Nathan

10-19-2004, 12:27 PM

I think many of these pollsters have been conducting push polls. At least, the ones that have been calling my house have been conducting push polls.

I've been called by Zogby once, Gallup once, and six other polling firms of which I've never heard.

THe Zogby one was basically background questions, then the candidate choice.

Gallup was a series of background and issue questions, then the candidate choice.

The others were all auto-dialers and started with a few background questions, then really hit the issues hard, with questions like:
"Do you agree that national security is of the utmost importance?"
"Do you agree that America should have gone after the Taliban and Osama bin Laden?"
"Do you agree that President Bush was right in deposing Saddam Hussein?"

If you answer no to any of these questions, they ask it again, then they hang up.

If you answer yes, then they get to the candidate choice. If you answer Kerry, they say "Do you believe that John Kerry will protect the homeland as well as President Bush?" If you answer no, they say "Thank you. Are you certain of your support for John Kerry if you do not believe he can protect Americans?" If you say yes they hang up.

It's really quite amazing.

Rover

10-19-2004, 01:50 PM

This is a question for the "older" folks, but is it just me or have polls never have varied this wildly before? It would seem to me that in the past these things would fluxuate by a few points but these things seem to be erratic now.

First I agree with Nathan in that push polling is probably happening a little more. I also think that there a lot more polls out there nowadays, as opposed to when Gallup pretty much was the only game in town. Why this is, IMO is that parties are commisioning more of their own polls or using pollsters affiliated with them to push voters in a certain direction as opposed to trying to find out where they are leaning.

In regards to this campaign, I don't think I'm slamming Bush when I say that the overriding theme that he hopes to win on is that his election is inevitable. He really hasn't strayed from that since election season started. Having his supporters publish polls showing him way ahead fits into that strategy. Likewise, if you're Kerry having pollsters show that you're closer than expected during a bad stretch like after the GOP convention is also an option. What I do is take a look at the methodology if the poll looks weird. Gallup for instance is using 40% GOP, 35% Dems and the rest independents for their samples. That's an 8 point bias for the GOP over 2000, when 39% Dems, 36% GOP and the rest independents went to the polls. Now they may very well have a reason for doing this, but I've yet to see them explain it so I have to wonder what they're up to.

Rover

10-19-2004, 03:16 PM

BTW - the latest for the electoral college, although I wish they'd stop using Survey USA.

October 19, 2004
Electoral College Update
Here are the latest electoral vote tallies which are updated daily (270 needed to win):
Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 284, Bush 247
The Hotline: Bush 227, Kerry 214
2.004k.com: Kerry 289, Bush 232
Slate: Kerry 284, Bush 254
Race 2004: Kerry 218, Bush 205
MyDD: Kerry 316, Bush 222

Nathan

10-19-2004, 03:35 PM

Jason A

10-19-2004, 05:06 PM

Bush up by two in West Viriginia: http://www.washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041019-022915-3387r.htm

Bush up by six, and over 50%, in Colorado: http://www.kktv.com/news/headlines/1114036.html

Bush might be pulling away in Colorado. In the last four polls I've seen, Bush has led in that state by nine, eight, five, and six.

Red Cloud

10-20-2004, 09:32 AM

More numbers coming in that show that we might as well forget these polls and just watch the returns on Nov. 2.

COLORADO
CNN/USA-Today/Gallup (LV): 51-45 Bush
CNN/USA-Today/Gallup (RV): 49-47 Bush

MISSOURI
KSDK-TV: 51-45 Bush

NEVADA
KVBC-TV: 52-45 Bush

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Suffolk University: 46-41 Kerry

NEW JERSEY
WABC-TV: 51-43 Kerry
Quinnipiac College: 49-45 Kerry
Rutgers University: 48-38 Kerry

OHIO
WCPO-TV: 49-47 Kerry
Univ. of Cincinnati: 48-46 Kerry
Opinion Dynamics: 49-44 Bush
ABC News: 50-47 Kerry

OREGON
Portland Tribune: 50-44 Kerry

VIRGINIA
WSLS-TV: 50-46 Bush

WASHINGTON
KING-TV: 53-45 Kerry

Kepler

10-20-2004, 10:57 AM

A summary from http://www.electoral-vote.com/ :

Wow! 41 new polls today. Zogby has released new polls conducted in the battleground states Oct. 13-18 and there is good news and bad news for each candidate. For Bush, the good news is that he is now leading in seven of the 16 battleground states (Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia), his best showing ever in the Zogby poll. The bad news is that all of these leads are within the margin of error, so they are statistical ties. For Kerry, the good news is that his leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, which ranges from 2% to 4%.

But there are other polls today as well. A new poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Kerry ahead in Ohio, 48% to 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each in Ohio, the first time Bush has not led there for weeks. ABC News says its Kerry 50%, Bush 47%, but Fox News says it is the other way: Kerry 45% and Bush 47%. On the other hand, Survey USA has Kerry ahead 49% to 47%. All in all, Ohio is a complete tossup at the moment; it could go either way.

Nick

10-20-2004, 11:40 AM

This is a couple of weeks old, but its an interesting read about the Colorado electoral vote splitting measure:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/06/opinion/courtwatch/main647763.shtml

Matt1331

10-20-2004, 11:43 AM

OHIO

Opinion Dynamics: 49-44 Bush

The analysis of this Ohio poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,135937,00.html

I thought this was a very odd poll, Nader isn't on the ballot in Ohio, but he is trying to get on and in the article I cited if Nader is included Bush's lead actually gets smaller, it shrinks to 47-45 and Nader gets 3, which means with Nader on the ballot Bush loses two points and Kerry gains a point, am I the only one who thinks thats odd?

Matt

Rover

10-20-2004, 12:11 PM

First off there's a new poll out in W. Virginia:

Bush 47, Kerry 45 - global strategies group.

As for Ohio there's an article I've read that shows in 4 separate polls taken the last couple of days, Bush's support is almost identical at 47%. The fluctuations are in regards to Kerry's support - anwhere from 50 to 42% according to these polls. I'm guessing the difference lies in whether or not undecideds are leaning towards Kerry or if they just stay home. IMO at this point I can't see how Nader can get on the ballot. Haven't absentee ballots already been sent?

To the WVA poll and others, I'd certainly expect some of my conservative friends to argue with me, but does anybody else see state polls numbers starting to creep Kerry's way? I'm not talking about one poll here or there, but in the last week we've seen a couple of polls showing Kerry up in Ohio and Florida - all within the margin of error but two weeks ago he was down within the margins in most of those polls. Likewise states like West Virginia and Arkansas are starting to tighten, while still favoring Bush of course. On the flip side, Minnesota doesn't seem in danger anymore, and Kerry has started to regain leads in Wisconsin and Iowa. Is this the start of a national trend, or just a random event?

PS - the absolute toss up states IMO are now NV, NM, IA, WI, OH, FL, & NH. While some others could change by election day (CO, MN, WV, PA) I see them leaning towards somebody right now.

Old Blood and Guts

10-20-2004, 12:58 PM

If you have been following www.electoral-vote.com, you may have made the same obervation that I have. That is, the election is going to come down to winning Flordia AND Ohio. Whomever wins those two states will win the White House. The other "battleground states" are starting to move to one candidate or the other, with the exception of Iowa and Wisconsin, but those two states won't make any difference if one candidate manages to carry both of the aforementioned states.

Bush is clearly favored to win Ohio, based on not only past polling, but on past behavior of the state. Florida is much more close, though recent polling has consistently favored Bush, with the exception of the Survey USA poll, which has Kerry up by 1. However, Survey USA has appeared to be unreliable in the Presidential race, and I believe that it is likely that Bush still holds a 1-2 point advantage in Flordia.

Overall, I'd say that Bush is still slightly favored to win, and will win, unless some major event happens, such as another Abu Garib, that erodes his popularity in the next two weeks. Also, "dirty tricks Thursday" is coming up next week. Anyone think that there will be an "October surprise" on that date?

Red Cloud

10-21-2004, 07:46 AM

screamingeagles

10-21-2004, 08:19 AM

The analysis of this Ohio poll:
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,135937,00.html

I thought this was a very odd poll, Nader isn't on the ballot in Ohio, but he is trying to get on and in the article I cited if Nader is included Bush's lead actually gets smaller, it shrinks to 47-45 and Nader gets 3, which means with Nader on the ballot Bush loses two points and Kerry gains a point, am I the only one who thinks thats odd?

Matt

Anything Fox news says has to be odd! :D Their not a biased network are they?

Clifton

10-21-2004, 08:27 AM

We kept hearing about an "October surprise," but October is rapidly ending and still no "surprise." True, we have a week to go... but I'm willing to lay money on the table that we aren't going to magically find bin Laden in the next 10 days like HRC and THK have been <strike>implying</strike> SAYING.

Well, still no OBL, but there was some good news here (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/afp/20041020/wl_sthasia_afp/pakista_qaeda_arrest) and here (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/nm/20041020/wl_nm/security_pakistan_arrest_dc) that seems to have slipped under everyone's radar the last couple of days. If anything, this might be getting so little attention so as to look like it is not an October surprise.

Pakistani security forces arrested an Egyptian Al-Qaeda operative in the northwestern city of Peshawar bordering Afghanistan, a security official said.

The official identified the man as Abdul Rehman and said he was on the most wanted list of the US Central Intleligence Agency

Pakistan has arrested a Yemeni national who is an important figure in al Qaeda's new leadership and another foreign national who is one of the network's communications specialists, officials said on Wednesday.

"He is an important figure in al Qaeda's new leadership," said the official, who asked not to be named. "He had been here in Pakistan and Afghanistan for the last eight years and wanted to sneak out of the country."

Red Cloud

10-21-2004, 08:32 AM

Well, still no OBL, but there was some good news here (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/afp/20041020/wl_sthasia_afp/pakista_qaeda_arrest) and here (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/nm/20041020/wl_nm/security_pakistan_arrest_dc) that seems to have slipped under everyone's radar the last couple of days. If anything, this might be getting so little attention so as to look like it is not an October surprise.

Sooo... it's an October surprise, yet it's going under the radar so as... not to impact the election? Which was the entire premise behind the "October surprise," wasn't it?

Does this not make sense to anyone else?

Clifton

10-21-2004, 08:35 AM

It makes perfect sense. The White House and its friends in the conversative portion of the media are afraid to push the story too much because they don't want to give Kerry the ammo to shout "OCTOBER SURPRISE! YOU'VE BEEN PLANNING THIS!", while the Democrats and their friends in the liberal segment of the media don't want to bring up the issue because it would show progress in the WOT.

Result: A couple of quiet successes in Pakistan.

Of course, now you'll see this slip into someone's stump speech and all hell will break loose ;)

Kepler

10-21-2004, 08:38 AM

Well, still no OBL, but there was some good news here (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/afp/20041020/wl_sthasia_afp/pakista_qaeda_arrest) and here (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/nm/20041020/wl_nm/security_pakistan_arrest_dc) that seems to have slipped under everyone's radar the last couple of days. If anything, this might be getting so little attention so as to look like it is not an October surprise.This actually was an "October Surprise," but it was Pervez Musharraf's, not ours. Musharraf, who has promised to either step down as president of Pakistan or sever his ties from the military, has been taking steps to go back on it and establish a very Saddam-like military dictatorship for life. He needed political cover for his latest move, hence, this.

Red Cloud

10-21-2004, 04:42 PM

Some news out of West Virginia...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=7&u=/ap/20041021/ap_on_el_pr/disgruntled_elector

Dateline - Charleston
W. Virginia Elector Might Leave Bush

Kepler

10-21-2004, 04:53 PM

Some news out of West Virginia...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1963&e=7&u=/ap/20041021/ap_on_el_pr/disgruntled_elector

I don't see why one bolting Bush elector could change the election result, as long as he doesn't go for Kerry.

Article II Section 1:

The Person having the greatest Number of Votes shall be the President, if such Number be a Majority of the whole Number of Electors appointed; and if there be more than one who have such Majority, and have an equal Number of Votes, then the House of Representatives shall immediately chuse by Ballot one of them for President; and if no Person have a Majority, then from the five highest on the List the said House shall in like Manner chuse the President.

So, say the election is tied, 269-269. If one Bush elector bolts to, say, Cheney, that makes it 269-268-1 Kerry. Kerry has 50% of the EVs -- not a majority. So the election goes to the House, just as it would in the event of a tie.

If Bush wins 270-268, the defection makes it 269-268-1 Bush. Again, it goes to the House, but the GOP controls the House and Bush is elected.

Now, if a Kerry elector bolted and Kerry won 270-268, reduced to 269-268, that really would swing the election.

What am I missing?

U2Bad1

10-21-2004, 05:25 PM

If Bush wins 270-268, the defection makes it 269-268-1 Bush. Again, it goes to the House, but the GOP controls the House and Bush is elected.

What am I missing?

There is a possibility that the DNC could take back control of the house. I am not sure if the new house would vote on this or the old house. That's the only thing i can think of

By the way, you can put Florida into the Bush column

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2004/story?id=186251

:D