Electoral Vote Projections

[screamingeagles]

Didn't see this poll on here... ignore if it is...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls.html

[pgb-ohio]

Sorry, pgb, I thought you were joking. I grew up in North Dakota.No need to apologize! It took your posts as all in good fun, and intended my replies to be the same.

I didn't mean to be nosy; I just couldn't help being curious about where you came from. I was really surprised to see someone claim that Chicago wasn't in the Midwest -- even in obvious jest.

OK, now about North Dakota. If you grew up in the Red River Valley, that would be the Midwest. But if... Oops, sorry. I'll give this a rest. ;)

[Jason A]

Zogby has Bush up by four points now in the horserace.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

[Rover]

Scripps Howard News Service = Kerry by 5

http://www.newspolls.org/story.php?story_id=33

ABC has it even.

[Todd]

Well, I didn't exactly move to Chicago from Anchorage. I've "only" lived in Anchorage for 15 years (which in Suze' eyes probably still makes me a Cheechako). But I would have no problem holding the Midwest Regionals at the Sullivan. Hell, I'd take the Eastern Regionals. After all, Alaska is the farthest east state in the country.But Buff, they'd have to hold the East regional in the far western Aleutians. I don't think there's an arena that could handle it. That being said, I'd be kind of psyched for the east regionals to somehow end up at Sullivan. I like the arena and the environs. Humpy's or T's Pub... doesn't really matter to me.

[Jason A]

Kerry by five in Michigan, polling at 51% in a two-way race and at 48% in a three-way race: http://www.southbendtribune.com/stories/2004/10/15/local.20041015-sbt-LOCL-A1-Michigan_looks_tough.sto

[ScoobyDoo]

Anyone heard of the Redskins thing? Apparently if the Redskins win the incumbent wins or something like that.

Well, the skins play Green Bay in the fateful game.

[Buff]

But Buff, they'd have to hold the East regional in the far western Aleutians. I don't think there's an arena that could handle it. That being said, I'd be kind of psyched for the east regionals to somehow end up at Sullivan. I like the arena and the environs. Humpy's or T's Pub... doesn't really matter to me.


Humpy's I'm very familiar with. T's Pub kind of throws me for a loop. I've never heard of it, and if the T is shortened for something, I'm at a loss to think of what it is. Now if you mentioned Chilkoot Charlie's or the Great Alaskan Bush Company, many people here on the board are probably familiar with one or both of those two.

[Todd]

Humpy's I'm very familiar with. T's Pub kind of throws me for a loop. I've never heard of it, and if the T is shortened for something, I'm at a loss to think of what it is. Now if you mentioned Chilkoot Charlie's or the Great Alaskan Bush Company, many people here on the board are probably familiar with one or both of those two.T's is a college hockey hangout (on the BU campus) where you can find some post-game imbibers when the East Regionals are driving distance from Boston...or before/after most other BU games.

Humpy's is the place where you and I and some other fans had beers when I came out to A-town for the first of the rejuvenated UAA-hosted pre-season tourneys.

But you probably knew the latter...

[Red Cloud]

Here's what I'm now operating on for "current electorals," that is, states both candidates have in the bag and would have to suffer major upset in order to lose.

Kerry: 153
CA, NY, IL, MA, MD, CT, RI, HI, VT, DE, DC

Bush: 196
TX, GA, NC, VA, IN, TN, AZ, AL, LA, SC, KY, OK, MS, KS, UT, WV, NE, ID, WY, AK, ND, SD, MT

Then there are the "likely" states. The candidates should win these states but a reversal of fortunes wouldn't be considered completely unlikely.

Kerry: 50
WA, OR, MI, NJ

Bush: 44
FL, AR, MO

Everything else is very much up for grabs - could go either way.

[Kepler]

Kerry: 50
WA, OR, MI, NJ.
I would give Kerry a better chance at PA than OR, but otherwise, yeah I'd say that's dead on.

[Buff]

Oops. Sorry, missed your point. I thought you were talking about two bars we visited while you were up here. If I recall, the two we went to were Humpy's and Bernie's. Anchorage does have a nice selection of "walking" bars downtown. You can make the circuit from F Street to the Pioneer to Darwin's Theory to Humpy's and then to Bernie's.

[Todd]

I would give Kerry a better chance at PA than OR, but otherwise, yeah I'd say that's dead on.Are you sure you aren't confusing OR with OH? Even with the current voter fraud allegations, I think Kerry has OR in the bag.

[Rover]

Tom has it pretty good although I argue that 1) Oregon is in the bag as I don't believe Bush is even advertising there, and 2) I don't see how FL is in the leans Bush category but PA isn't for Kerry when the poll numbers out of both are remarkably similar.

[Jason A]

Kerry up by only a couple in New Jersey, 44%-42%.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/bkfriday/

[Kepler]

Are you sure you aren't confusing OR with OH? Even with the current voter fraud allegations, I think Kerry has OR in the bag.
I'm sure; I lived there for five years. Nobody east of the Cascades made it out of fifth grade, and they got no patience for gays, blacks, or uppity women. Or science, which is apparently a tool of Satan. A classic "red ranchers v. blue everybody else" state. But the ranchers have a helluva lot of cash, and they *really* raked it in under the tax redistribution.

[Todd]

I'm sure; I lived there for five years. Nobody east of the Cascades made it out of fifth grade, and they got no patience for gays, blacks, or uppity women. Or science, which is apparently a tool of Satan. A classic "red ranchers v. blue everybody else" state. But the ranchers have a helluva lot of cash, and they *really* raked it in under the tax redistribution.Did you live in the part that wants to secede from the rest of the state(Jacksonville?)?

[Kepler]

"Jefferson," the southern counties of OR and the northern counties of CA. Nope, I lived in the NW part of the state. Put it this way, around Portland I was consider significantly to the right. :D

There are probably other states like OR where there is *no* center. The east is Insanity Red, the west is Insanity Blue. The numbers balance almost exactly, and state politics is a bloodbath.

[Red Cloud]

New polls.

Florida
Washington Post: 48-48
Strategic Vision (R): 49-45 Bush

Michigan
WSBT-TV: 48-43 Kerry
Strategic Vision (R): 48-40 Kerry
Michigan is slowly moving to the "in the bag" sector for Kerry, if it ain't there already.

Minnesota
Strategic Vision (R): 47-45 Kerry

New Hampshire
Concord Monitor: Kerry 49-45

[Kepler]

For the first time that I can recall, the Blogging Caesar site didn't move any states between columns from last week to this one, and there was very little movement between categories: http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

On that site, Bush is given an overall pct lead of 49.3 - 48.9, and his approval ratings are at 46.6. The number of states* within 5% has now dwindled to just 13:

Really Close Bush States (4.99% or less) 69 Electoral Votes

Arkansas (6) - 4.89%
Missouri (11) - 2.67%
Nevada (5) - 1.52%
Ohio (20) - 1.40%
Florida (27) - 1.10%

Really Close Kerry States (4.99% or less) 65 Electoral Votes

Iowa (7) - 0.08%
Wisconsin (10) - 1.22%
Oregon (7) - 2.76%
Pennsylvania (21) - 3.04%
New Mexico (5) - 3.43%
Maine (district 2) (1) - 3.85%
New Hampshire (4) - 3.98%
Minnesota (10) - 4.09%

(* technically, 12 states and 1 district).

Note that Blogging Caesar gives all 9 CO EV to Bush. If the initiative holds up, his 274-264 Bush lead becomes 270-268!!!

Here are the "easiest" ways for Kerry to win the election even if he loses both OH and FL.

Starting with BC's 264 EV:

1) CO initiative passes (4) + NV (5) = 273
2) Add MO (11) = 275
3) CO passes (4) + AR (6) = 274
4) Add NV (5) and AR (6) = 275

Here are the "easiest" ways for Bush to win the election even if he loses OH.

Starting with BC's 274 EV and then knocking off OH (20) to give him 254:

1) Add PA (21) = 276 (272 if CO passes)
2) CO fails, add IA (7) and WI (10) = 271
3) CO fails, add OR (7) and WI (10) = 271

If Bush loses FL (27), there are still ways of winning. Starting with BC's 274 EV and then knocking off FL (27) to give him 247, if he picks up PA (21) that gives him 268, which leaves him 1 vote short of the tie he needs to be re-elected. Any other swap resulting in a net gain would give it to him.

If Bush loses both OH and FL, I just don't see any reasonable way for him to win.