Electoral Vote Projections

[SurfCityRed]

Greg, your post was filled with such ridiculous vitriol, I won't even bother discussing politics with you anymore. You obviously have a lot of blind hatred.

[LynahFan]

The difference is that at least one person on my side feels the good of the country through the legitimacy of the result is more important than the result. I have yet to hear a single Bush-supporter say they would rather lose with class than win at all costs. On your side, it's "just win, baby!" And that sucks, because 20 years ago the GOP had some honor. Maybe getting rid of the current insect infestation of the White House is the first step to recapturing the soul of the right.

How is "win at all costs" that much different from "anybody but Bush?" You are totally blind to anything bad on the left. They're two sides of the same coin.

For the record, I would rather Bush lose with class than cheat to win. Feel better?

The way I see it, this is a win-win-win election for me. Either Bush wins (win), or Kerry wins and makes America safer, magically creates millions of jobs from thin air, makes the air clean to breathe again, actually figures out how to fund free healthcare for all, etc, (win), or Kerry wins and I get to say, "I told you so" (win).

[unofan]

Greg, your post was filled with such ridiculous vitriol, I won't even bother discussing politics with you anymore. You obviously have a lot of blind hatred.
Hey, at least he admitted Kennedy stole the '60 election from Nixon. Never thought I'd hear a liberal admit that one freely and openly.

Of course the rest of his post re: the 2000 election was stuff worthy of verybdog or rufus.

[Kepler]

How is "win at all costs" that much different from "anybody but Bush?" You are totally blind to anything bad on the left. They're two sides of the same coin.
My very point is that they are two sides to the same coin. I'm sick of the right getting a free ride on the morality and patriotism trains. Calling them out as every bit as full of b.s. as the left is not "being blind to anything bad on the left."

As for the election -- nothing I wrote was "full of vitriol." It was a lousy way to win, and a better man than Bush would have had the leadership and fortitude to let all the votes be counted. OTOH, I'll give him credit for one thing: he has governed with the same style and class as he won. Stay the course...

Now, as for ABB (which BTW I'm not, and I haven't met very many thinking people who are), that's definitely a different animal than "win at any cost." "Anyway but Bush" would be the same thing, but I haven't heard anybody make that their slogan. (Now watch... there'll be bumper stickers out there tomorrow. :D )

As for the rhetoric about hatred blah blah blah... either grow a pair or put me on Ignore, but for goshsakes stop whining. Sorry you're not O'Reilly and you can't just turn off the mic of anybody not 100% in line with your viewpoint. Keep raking in those tax break windfalls and someday you too can afford your own show. Till then, either engage or go away. :p

[SurfCityRed]

As for the rhetoric about hatred blah blah blah... either grow a pair or put me on Ignore, but for goshsakes stop whining. Sorry you're not O'Reilly and you can't just turn off the mic of anybody not 100% in line with your viewpoint. Keep raking in those tax break windfalls and someday you too can afford your own show. Till then, either engage or go away. :p

Challenging your left-wing diatribes is not "whining". Choosing to disengage also doesn't mean I don't "have a pair". My mother is on her death bed and my son has been diagnosed with autism. These circumstances further impress on me that my son needs me as much as possible and life is short, too short to spend arguing politics on a message board with someone whose hatred for Republicans is so strong that he's often incapable of rational thinking.

Besides you hate my baseball team, where I'm from and where I live. So in spite of your tremendous knowledge of Cornell hockey, I'll take your advice and put you on Ignore. Bye Greg.

[LynahFan]

ugly, makeup-caked, hate-pinched face of Katherine Harris
.
.
.
the current insect infestation of the White House

Those aren't vitriol?

vit·ri·ol ( P ) Pronunciation Key (vtr-l, -l) n. : Bitterly abusive feeling or expression.

Edit: no, I guess you're right. Sounds more like a well-reasoned argument pointing out that the right doesn't have a monopoly on patriotism... :rolleyes:

[Rimbaud]

Those aren't vitriol?

vit·ri·ol ( P ) Pronunciation Key (vtr-l, -l) n. : Bitterly abusive feeling or expression.

Edit: no, I guess you're right. Sounds more like a well-reasoned argument pointing out that the right doesn't have a monopoly on patriotism... :rolleyes:

Are you saying that Katherine Harris isn't ugly, makeup-caked, or that she doesn't have a hate-pinched face?

http://www.theguycode.com/stories/1.37/pics/katherine_harris.jpg

I may give you some of the other stuff, but the Harris stuff is all true. :D

[Kepler]

And here are the updates, through 10/11:

EV Site totals:

Electoral Vote.com isn't coming up right now: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
B 274 K 264, Blogging Caesar: http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
B 305 K 233, President Elect (not updated since 9/16): http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html
K 284 B 254, Race 2004: http://www.race2004.net/ Their full projection is in the box on the right of the page.
B 240 K 179 (199 Tossup), Rasmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm
B 284 K 254, Sabato (not updated since 10/4... maybe today): http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php
Dead even, 269-269!, Tripias Default: http://www.tripias.com/state/
K 274 B 264, Poll Watcher (Dem-affiliated): http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

As always, if you find others, please post them.

Two polls out today from Strategic Vision show Bush up +4/+5 among FL likely. Here is the FL trending: http://www.tripias.com/state/state.html?state=FL

In the other nail biter, the recent polls have favored Kerry among OH likely: http://www.tripias.com/state/state.html?state=OH Strategic Vision seems to poll there every two weeks, and the next pair were due yesterday.

All of those polls are clickable for full results. Tripias rocks.

Blogging Caesar pointed out that Kerry is now within the "reapportionment zone" on the BC's projections -- i.e., by 2000 EV totals, Kerry would be ahead. Also, BC lists CO as solid red, whereas if the CO initiative does pass and is upheld, that will shrink the CO winner's share by 4 EV.

Edit: I didn't realize Strategic Vision was a polling service specializing in Republican clients. That does not necessarily "explain" the difference between their results and the other polls, but it does cast some doubt on them.

[Kepler]

Polling report http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm has the Zogby/Reuters results, with Kerry up 47-44 along likely voters. Interestingly, there are still 7% undecided/unsure... (so they support Kerry's methodology if not the candidate :D ).

[Kepler]

... and the beat goes on. Bush's favorability drops to a 3-month low according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll: http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

This graphic shows the trending lines: http://www.pollingreport.com/national.htm#Bush

The Associated Press-Ipsos poll was even more dramatic. Bush went from 54/46 to 46/53. I can't imagine an 8-point swing this late in the race, so at least one of those numbers was probably pushed to the edge of the MoE.

Finally, Electoral Vote.com did update this morning, and has it B 274 K 260 (4 exactly tied).

EV was down because of a cyberattack:

"The site has had technical problems repeatedly in the past several days and has been down several times. I didn't want to discuss this, but I don't want anyone to think the problem was an incompetent hosting service. Just the opposite. The site has been subjected to a full-scale, well-organized, massive attack with the clear intention to bring it down. The attackers have tried repeatedly to break in, but the server is a rock-solid Linux system which has stood up to everything they threw at it and hasn't crashed since I got it in May. While our troops are fighting and dying to bring freedom of speech to the Iraqi people, there are forces in America who find this concept no longer applicable to America. I don't know who is behind this attack yet (although we are working it), but it is too professional to be some teenager working from a home PC."

[Kepler]

Finally, there is some great data from EV.com showing the trending on various major polls. Here's OH as an example: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html

The full list of states so covered is here: http://www.electoral-vote.com/pollsters/

[Matt1331]

Finally, there is some great data from EV.com showing the trending on various major polls. Here's OH as an example: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/ohio.html



Talk about flip-flop, make up your friggin' mind Ohio.

:D

Matt

[Rimbaud]

Talk about flip-flop, make up your friggin' mind Ohio.

:D

Matt

It's a state made for Kerry! :eek:

[Kepler]

It's a state made for Kerry! :eek:
OK, then, we'll take it. That has been my consisent position. :D

[Kepler]

Tripias, which adjusted from the dead heat to Kerry 274-264, has a bunch of new polls out. http://www.tripias.com/state/

Obvious:

OK: Bush +12%
NJ: Kerry +9% (some hardcore Bushies have claimed this was in play... no way, this is Kerry country)
WV: Bush + 6% (some hardcore Kerryites have claimed this was in play... no way, this is Bush country)
WA: Kerry +10%

Interesting if true:

TN: Bush +1% (even as a partisan I can't see it... this is a core Bush state; I think Bush wins by 7-8%).
PA: Kerry +4, 3, 2, and 2% (still very close, and a state Kerry must win to set up OH)
WI: Kerry +2% (see comments on PA)

[Jason A]

TN: Bush +1% (even as a partisan I can't see it... this is a core Bush state; I think Bush wins by 7-8%).That Zogby poll is an outlier, but the Dems do feel they've reversed some of the GOP trend in the state, so who knows?

I wouldn't worry too much about it if I were Bush, though. He should be safe there.

[Rover]

Sometimes you do have to take all of these polls with some common sense. TN, while it may not be a blowout, isn't going to Kerry unless video of Bush and Bin Laden having a tea party in his Afghanistan hideout surfaces.

Likewise, the NJ stuff was always laughable, but hey if the GOP wants to spend money there, be my guest.

PN may be close, but I can't see that going Bush's way. Simply put, with bad economic news there, whether or not its Bush's fault, there's no reason why he'll pull more than the 43-44% of the people that will vote his way no matter what.

Otherwise, as expected the race comes down to Ohio and Florida, which Bush must sweep. Wisconsin and Colorado are interesting in that they're more competitive than expected. However, they only become factors if Bush wins both OH and FL. In that case, I don't see a Kerry victory, unless that Colorado initiative goes through (where he'd pick up 4 votes but would still need NH (probably), NV (less likely, but maybe) and WI (who knows?). The odds of winning all three of those while losing the two biggest undecided states are long.

[Red Cloud]

My own latest projection shows Bush winning 273-265, which is a lot closer than it was a couple of weeks ago.

I'm projecting that, when all is said and done, it will come down to PA, OH, and FL. Kerry will have to win all three to get elected.

[Rover]

My own latest projection shows Bush winning 273-265, which is a lot closer than it was a couple of weeks ago.

I'm projecting that, when all is said and done, it will come down to PA, OH, and FL. Kerry will have to win all three to get elected.

How do you figure? Do you mean to say that Bush will win...I'm guessing WI, IA, and MN to come up with that figure?

I'm basing my question on 260 votes for Kerry if he takes the Gore states. If he has to win both OH and FL (an additional 47 votes) you must have him dropping 10 (WI), 7 (IA) and 10? (MN)....although that still leaves Kerry with a 10 point cushion.

[Red Cloud]

How do you figure? Do you mean to say that Bush will win...I'm guessing WI, IA, and MN to come up with that figure?

I'm basing my question on 260 votes for Kerry if he takes the Gore states. If he has to win both OH and FL (an additional 47 votes) you must have him dropping 10 (WI), 7 (IA) and 10? (MN)....although that still leaves Kerry with a 10 point cushion.

Take the 2000 map and switch NM and WI to Bush, and OH to Kerry. That's my current projection. Actually, I have a clear draw in MN and NH. I went ahead and awarded those to Kerry and Bush respectively, in tune with the 2000 result.

Edit: This projection becomes 269-269 if the CO ballot measure passes. Gulp.