Electoral Vote Projections

[Jason A]

Here's some data from up north: Bush has taken the lead in New Hampshire, according to a poll released by my alma mater, UNH.

Bush leads 50-45. Each candidate recevies 89% of his base (registered Repubs and Dems), and Kerry leads 50-34 among independents. But the 40,000-voter advantage for the Republicans gives Bush the lead in the poll.

Note that about half of the 600 surveys were conducted before the first debate.

Source: http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/elect100404.pdf (PDF WARNING)
Here's some new N.H. data released today. The American Research Group has the race at 47%-47%. All interviews were conducted following the first debate.

Source: http://americanresearchgroup.com/nh/

There does seem to be some movement in the state polls for Kerry since the first debate. It could just be a bounce, or could be more than that.

One new poll has Kerry up by 7 in PA: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041006/phw008_1.html

Kerry by 2 in Florida: http://americanresearchgroup.com/fl/

Kerry by 1 in Ohio: http://surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/OH041005xpreswsenv.pdf (PDF WARNING)

The last two are, obviously, within the MOE.

[Kepler]

Kerry retakes Ohio, New Mexico, and Nevada in the first post-debate #1 state polls; Bush retakes PA: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

There's also some news there about Edwards being tapped by large majorities as the winner of debate #2; if Ohioans agree, that may push Kerry up even farther in that key state.

A potentionally heart-stopping number reported at the Blogging Caesar: the right-track/wrong-track plummetted from an already dismal 46/53 to an abysmal 36/57.

Worse still for Bush, Consumer Confidence has now dropped to its worst level since June, just in time for the domestic policy debate: http://www.pollingreport.com/consumer.htm

[Kepler]

EV Site totals:

These sites favor Bush, with few state poll results from the past week factored in yet. Some sites also include undecided/too close to call states.

285-232, Electoral Vote: http://www.electoral-vote.com/
295-243, Blogging Caesar: http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html
305-233, President Elect: http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html
231-190, Race 2004: http://www.race2004.net/
213-169, Rasmussen: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm
284-254, Sabato: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2004/president/electoratemap.php
294-244, Tripias: http://www.tripias.com/state/

This site lists Kerry in the lead (but it's Dem-affiliated):

301-237, Poll Watcher: http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

[Jason A]

www.electoral-vote.com has been updated today, and Bush's lead has been trimmed to 264-253, with Michigan (17) and New Hampshire (4) tied.

[Buff]

According to electoral-vote.com state by state polls, on the day before the debate the projected totals were Bush 280, Kerry 254. Today they are Bush 321, Kerry 200.

You're not very bright, are you? You cannot simply look at the graphics and say, "This is where we are today." If you pass your cursor over any state, you will see when the poll was taken. It takes a few days for some of the polls to be reported and put up on that site. On October 5, you were looking at a poll in Ohio that was done on September 29, the day before the debate.

[Rover]

You're not very bright, are you? You cannot simply look at the graphics and say, "This is where we are today." If you pass your cursor over any state, you will see when the poll was taken. It takes a few days for some of the polls to be reported and put up on that site. On October 5, you were looking at a poll in Ohio that was done on September 29, the day before the debate.

Give Milmo a break, will ya? After the last two debates I'm sure most conservatives would like to take back what's happened the last week too! :p

[sportsfan]

Electoral-vote.com was hacked today. Here's the "projected" results.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct07p.html

[Jason A]

In the horserace, the AP has a new poll out that shows John Kerry taking a 50-46 lead over Pres. Bush. MOE is 3%.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041007/D85IN1DO0.html

[Rover]

To me the funniest thing is when the Gallup poll, which is specifically and against all known voting trends overweighting GOP participation, has Kerry and Bush even, that's not good news for the GOP.

[Milmo]

You're not very bright, are you?

Dear Buff, you know this is a relative question. If you have an IQ (proctored test) of 160 or more then compared to you, I'm not.

If you have the intelligence of an average 4 year college graduate (115, or about 1090 on the post-1994 SAT or 990 pre-1995 SAT), then yes, compared to you, I am very bright.

Thank you for asking.

[ScoobyDoo]

Dear Buff, you know this is a relative question. If you have an IQ (proctored test) of 160 or more then compared to you, I'm not.

If you have the intelligence of an average 4 year college graduate (115, or about 1090 on the post-1994 SAT or 990 pre-1995 SAT), then yes, compared to you, I am very bright.

Thank you for asking.
Standardized testing. A Republican measure of intelligence.

[LynahFan]

Standardized testing. A Republican measure of intelligence.
As opposed to the liberal measure of sitting around in a circle and talking about how smart we feel?

[ScoobyDoo]

As opposed to the liberal measure of sitting around in a circle and talking about how smart we feel?
No idea, but privilege and lineage are the only exceptions to the Republican rule.

[Jason A]

In the horserace, the AP has a new poll out that shows John Kerry taking a 50-46 lead over Pres. Bush. MOE is 3%.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041007/D85IN1DO0.html
And here's another new poll, from Marist -- this one shows Bush up 47-46 among RVs and 49-46 among LVs.

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/PZ041007.htm

EDIT: The latest WSJ/Zogby state polls are out. According to this set of numbers, Kerry is in a strong position, although his leads in AR, OH, and FL are razor thin. Interestingly, Zogby has Bush leading Tennessee by just a point, at 49-48.

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

[Kepler]

Race 2004 now has Kerry ahead: http://www.race2004.net/

Summary of the Zogby state polls:

without Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in West Virginia has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
with Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Tennessee has Bush in the lead.
with Nader in Colorado has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Colorado has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Nevada has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in New Mexico has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead.
with Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Iowa has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Arkansas has Kerry in the lead.
with Nader in Arizona has Bush in the lead.

The big ones are, of course, OH and FL.

And a great story of two AP snaffus:

The AP Wire did it again. A few days ago they put out a wire story about how the first debate turned out even before the debate had begun.

Well, today they put out a wire story with final election results for November 2. Yes, that's right. Final election results. Most news outlets immediately knew it was a mistake, but WBAY-TV in Wisconsin actually put the story on their website.

[dropthatpuck]

Race 2004 now has Kerry ahead: http://www.race2004.net/

Summary of the Zogby state polls:

without Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in West Virginia has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Washington has Kerry in the lead.
with Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Virginia has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Tennessee has Bush in the lead.
with Nader in Colorado has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Colorado has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Pennsylvania has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Nevada has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in New Mexico has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in New Hampshire has Kerry in the lead.
with Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in North Carolina has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Missouri has Bush in the lead.
without Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Michigan has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Iowa has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Florida has Kerry in the lead.
without Nader in Arkansas has Kerry in the lead.
with Nader in Arizona has Bush in the lead.

The big ones are, of course, OH and FL.

And a great story of two AP snaffus:

The AP Wire did it again. A few days ago they put out a wire story about how the first debate turned out even before the debate had begun.

Well, today they put out a wire story with final election results for November 2. Yes, that's right. Final election results. Most news outlets immediately knew it was a mistake, but WBAY-TV in Wisconsin actually put the story on their website.


All of the others you posted earlier, still have Bush ahead, with the exception of this one, the "Democratic" one (ridiculously tilted!) and one that has them even. That leaves 5 polls with GWB in the lead.

Thanks for posting those, BTW.

....and, lastly, silly AP.

[Buff]

Dear Buff, you know this is a relative question. If you have an IQ (proctored test) of 160 or more then compared to you, I'm not.

If you have the intelligence of an average 4 year college graduate (115, or about 1090 on the post-1994 SAT or 990 pre-1995 SAT), then yes, compared to you, I am very bright.

Thank you for asking.


Good comeback. If you're too dumb to understand the nuances of a simple chart, tell us what your IQ is, so we'll think you're really, really smart (but still too dumb to understand a simple chart).

Wait, Republicans simply hate nuances, don't they?

[Buff]

Republicans might want to avoid looking at www.electoral-vote.com today. :)

[phil_dupree]

Phil Dupree checked the website this morning and is unsurprised to see leftists drinking the Kool-Aid on electoral-vote.com. The polls the webmaster for electoral-vote are using come from John Zogby, who has projected Bush to be a point or so behind Kerry in all the same states as know, even after the Republican Convention. Phil Dupree thinks that this is highly unlikely.

Also, if any leftists really believe that Bush is behind in Ohio, or that Arkansas and Colorado are tied, then Phil Dupree has a bridge to sell you that connects Michigan's upper and lower penninsula.

[SurfCityRed]

Republicans might want to avoid looking at www.electoral-vote.com today. :)

It doesn't look so bad to me. In spite of the first debate debacle Bush is still ahead. Kerry has leads of 1-3% in 8 states, including New Jersey, and Michigan is now tied. Bush's margin is <3% in only a single state. Most of the polls were done before the VP debate. As long as Kerry doesn't take the lead in Missouri (which is tight), I don't think he'll win.