The official Hurricane Charlie is heading directly for my house thread!

[Bruce Ciskie]

From Gary Gray at MillenniumWeather.com:

Charley's intensity upon reaching South Carolina later on Saturday *COULD* re-approach Category 3 strength. The GFDL indicates that he'll get close. The official TPC/NHC forecast does not. However, since shear won't be major, and given Charley's brute force (o.k., I know that sounds non-meteorological, but typically, storms with a large, strong circulation - like Charley - tend to hold together better over land... so, while friction may successfully knock winds down to 50-70kts by the time Charley hits Daytona Beach, they may winds up rapidly as he re-emerges from the coast) he could easily get back to at least Category 2 strength (85kts), and Category 3 is not impossible.

Considering how wrong most were about his landfall intensity in Florida (most thought he would be barely a Cat 3...and, well, you know what's going on), I wouldn't rule anything out. Conditions look like they'll be favorable for redevelopment.

[Patman]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
From Gary Gray at MillenniumWeather.com:



Considering how wrong most were about his landfall intensity in Florida (most thought he would be barely a Cat 3...and, well, you know what's going on), I wouldn't rule anything out. Conditions look like they'll be favorable for redevelopment.

as an arm chair weather dork I don't see how this thing will come out on the other side of florida as anything other that a Cat 1 hurricane, so without the gulf stream I think it would be wishful thinking this storm could remain a cat 3, and then you have to consider where the front line lays and its sheering effects on storm development... ahh... good ol' 3 dimensional pde's on a near spherical surface.

[Nick]

Originally posted by Scarlet
So my aunt and uncle that live in PG are probably screwed. Greeeaaattt.

I hope they either evacuated or hunkered down really well, because it looks like they are going to take a direct hit. Absolutely amazing how this thing went right up the bay.

edit: the official ob at Punta Gorda puts the winds at 95mph

edit2: now 109mph :eek:

[St Patrick]

From Punta Gorda in the last couple hours:

The last ob has sustained at 87, gusting 109 mph!

KPGD Aug 13 1753Z 79 74 85 85 E 12 21 OVC 2500 1011.2 0.16 81 75 2.00 +RA
KPGD Aug 13 1800Z 79 73 82 84 E 13 22 OVC 3000 Trce 4.00 -RA
KPGD Aug 13 1807Z 79 73 82 84 ESE 9 22 OVC 2400 0.01 6.00 -RA
KPGD Aug 13 1825Z 79 73 82 84 E 21 31 BKN 3900 0.01 10.00 -RA
KPGD Aug 13 1853Z 79 74 85 85 E 24 36 OVC 3100 1008.1 0.04 6.00 RA
KPGD Aug 13 1910Z 77 73 87 82 E 35 44 OVC 3400 0.09 2.00 +RA BR
KPGD Aug 13 1912Z 77 73 87 82 E 30 44 OVC 2800 0.10 1.75 +RA BR
KPGD Aug 13 1923Z 77 73 87 82 E 33 48 OVC 2800 0.13 2.50 RA BR
KPGD Aug 13 1946Z 75 73 94 79 E 41 54 OVC 2500 0.22 1.50 +RA BR
KPGD Aug 13 1953Z 76 73 90 81 -11499 997.4 0.24
KPGD Aug 13 2008Z 75 73 94 79 E 56 75 0.11 1.25 VCTS +RA BR
KPGD Aug 13 2028Z 75 73 94 79 ESE 75 95 OVC 1000 0.23 1.25 +TSRA BR
KPGD Aug 13 2032Z 75 75 100 80 ESE 87 109 OVC 700 0.24 1.50 TSRA BR

[Bruce Ciskie]

Originally posted by Nick
edit: the official ob at Punta Gorda puts the winds at 95mph

edit2: now 109mph :eek:

link?

[Nick]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
link?

I'm going through the NCAR's website:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/

Just put KPGD into the box on the right for the observation.

There's probably an easier site out there though.

[Bruce Ciskie]

OK...I'm a sports guy. What the **** does this mean?

KPGD 132032Z AUTO 11076G95KT 1 1/2SM TSRA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC016 24/24 A2875 RMK AO2 PK WND 11095/2032 LTG DSNT SE-W TSB08RAB01 CIG 005V010 PRESFR P0024 $

[St Patrick]

http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/metarpg.htm

This may help. :D

[Greyeagle]

Originally posted by St Patrick
http://www.ukweather.freeserve.co.uk/metarpg.htm

This may help.

[U2Bad1]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
OK...I'm a sports guy. What the **** does this mean?

KPGD 132032Z AUTO 11076G95KT 1 1/2SM TSRA BR BKN007 BKN011 OVC016 24/24 A2875 RMK AO2 PK WND 11095/2032 LTG DSNT SE-W TSB08RAB01 CIG 005V010 PRESFR P0024 $

KPGD is the station identifier, it is an automated station.

winds from 110 degrees, 76 knots gusting to 95, the weather is thunderstorm (i think) .. then the next few statements describe the cloud cover at different levels, 24 C temp-24 C dewpoint.. then a whole bunch of stuff i dont know.

[Bruce Ciskie]

If it doesn't register a wind speed or direction, does that mean something is broken? :eek:

[Nick]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
If it doesn't register a wind speed or direction, does that mean something is broken? :eek:

Not necessarily, it didn't report at 1953Z either, but there is a chance that it couldn't withstand the winds.

[U2Bad1]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
If it doesn't register a wind speed or direction, does that mean something is broken? :eek:

If it was broken .. i dont think the station would be registering anything, but you never know :)

[U2Bad1]

Originally posted by Nick
Not necessarily, it didn't report at 1953Z either, but there is a chance that it couldn't withstand the winds.

How's the job going?

[Nick]

Where's ScottK? We need to have all four of USCHO's meteorologist here :p

[Bruce Ciskie]

Originally posted by Nick
Not necessarily, it didn't report at 1953Z either, but there is a chance that it couldn't withstand the winds.

I'm glad I'm here and it's there. I'm sure I'd be ****ing myself, too, so I don't blame the system for not holding up.

[Nick]

Originally posted by U2Bad1
How's the job going?

Really good. Meeting a lot of the scientists in the field. Met the director of NCAR yesterday.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Has anyone ever checked The Weather Channel's ratings during storms like this?

[dropthatpuck]

Can't seem to find any sort of "semi-accurate" storm track for this thing going across the state?????? NOAA and the Weather Channel don't seem to have anything:confused:

[Nick]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
Has anyone ever checked The Weather Channel's ratings during storms like this?

Wouldn't even know where to look it up. Do you have access to that type of thing since you are in the media?