The official Hurricane Charlie is heading directly for my house thread!

[Bruce Ciskie]

Sorry to hijack bandwidth, but I think this is worthy:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W5+GIF/131823W5.gif

[Nick]

Very interesting stuff. If you watch the radar loop for the past hour, you can see a "wobble" back towards due N. It would be good news if the eastern eyewall did not travel directly up Charlotte Bay.

edit: If anyone wants to follow along, and the NWS sites are too slow, the College of Dupage (IL) has a great weather website

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?TBW

[Bruce Ciskie]

Jim Cantore is the shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........bomb.

[Nathan]

Charley just moved to a Cat 4.

Winds at 145 and looks like he'll be hitting ground between Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte. As his current trajectory, that would put him over the Atlantic between Ormond and New Smyrna. Suck. Hopefully he picks up travel speed, but I'm afraid he's going to stall over land and flood Central Florida.

If he hits the Atlantic in the Daytona/Ormond area, my unit may get some serious storm time.

[Nathan]

2:26 P.M. ET Fri.,Aug.13,2004
M. Ressler, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel


After hitting western Cuba with wind gusts up to 124 mph and brushing by to the west of Key West with gusts nearing 60 mph at the airport, extremely dangerous Hurricane Charley, now a major category-4 storm with 145 mph winds, takes aim on the Gulf side of the Florida Peninsula. Charley will come ashore between Tampa and Fort Myers during the late afternoon. Destructive winds, high storm surge and torrential rains will all contribute to extreme tree, power line and structural damage along with widespread flooding over the western side of the peninsula especially along the northeast quadrant of its track. Most of the Florida Peninsula is already soggy with August rainfall over the first 12 days 1 to 8 inches above average. Charley will head inland toward coastal Georgia overnight, gradually weakening. Charley will still produce damaging hurricane-force winds and torrential flooding rain across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. Over the weekend, a weakening Charley will cause flooding up the East Coast as it rapidly zips northward. East of its track, the threat for tornadoes will be high. In the central and eastern Atlantic, two tropical disturbances have potential for development as the 2004 hurricane season moves into high gear. In fact, the one just to the south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands has become Tropical Depression Four and will head west to west-northwest across the open Atlantic, slowly but steadily increasing.

[Dutchfan]

The eye has hit land.

[Nick]

Originally posted by Nathan
Charley just moved to a Cat 4.

Winds at 145 and looks like he'll be hitting ground between Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte. As his current trajectory, that would put him over the Atlantic between Ormond and New Smyrna. Suck. Hopefully he picks up travel speed, but I'm afraid he's going to stall over land and flood Central Florida.

If he hits the Atlantic in the Daytona/Ormond area, my unit may get some serious storm time.

With the atmospheric setup the way it is, there is little to no chance that Charley will stall, which is good news. It is also good that Charley is hugging the coast. A directly 90° hit (like Andrew) increases the wind speeds in the dangerous front-right quadrant. Also, and I'm not completely sure about this, but hurricanes don't fare well in shallow water, so if it hugs the coast, stays in the shallow water and the feeder bands are coming from inland, there's a good chance that it will decrease in strength.

[Nick]

Originally posted by Dutchfan
The eye has hit land.

The outer eyewall may be hitting land, but the eye is still about 20 miles offshore.

[one_to7]

Originally posted by Nick
The outer eyewall may be hitting land, but the eye is still about 20 miles offshore.
The who and the what now? :)

[Nathan]

Originally posted by Nick
With the atmospheric setup the way it is, there is little to no chance that Charley will stall, which is good news. It is also good that Charley is hugging the coast. A directly 90° hit (like Andrew) increases the wind speeds in the dangerous front-right quadrant. Also, and I'm not completely sure about this, but hurricanes don't fare well in shallow water, so if it hugs the coast, stays in the shallow water and the feeder bands are coming from inland, there's a good chance that it will decrease in strength. That all depends upon where he hits. The Gulf side is much more shallow than the Atlantic in Central FL. If he hits water near Cocoa he'll really decrease in strength because it's so shallow there. However, IIRC, the water around Volusia County is deeper than Cocoa, creating a situation where he might bounce away from the coastline, which would be good for FL, but bad for NC and Bermuda.

[dropthatpuck]

Originally posted by Nathan
That all depends upon where he hits. The Gulf side is much more shallow than the Atlantic in Central FL. If he hits water near Cocoa he'll really decrease in strength because it's so shallow there. However, IIRC, the water around Volusia County is deeper than Cocoa, creating a situation where he might bounce away from the coastline, which would be good for FL, but bad for NC and Bermuda.

I thought that warmer water had more to do with hurricane strength, rather than "deep" water. Shallow water is warmer than deeper water, so I would assume that it would strenghten over shallower water?????

[Bruce Ciskie]

I see I'm not the only one who noticed that northern wobble. I love how unpredictable these things are. Hurricanes can drive even the most trained experts crazy sometimes.

[Nick]

Originally posted by Nathan
That all depends upon where he hits. The Gulf side is much more shallow than the Atlantic in Central FL. If he hits water near Cocoa he'll really decrease in strength because it's so shallow there. However, IIRC, the water around Volusia County is deeper than Cocoa, creating a situation where he might bounce away from the coastline, which would be good for FL, but bad for NC and Bermuda.

Regardless, with the current and expected motion, Charley is going to be on land for a while and by the time it gets back to the Atlantic it will be a shell of its former self. Still a strong storm, but not a monster.

[dropthatpuck]

With only an hour or so to go, what town/city is ground-zero for landfall?????

[Nick]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
I see I'm not the only one who noticed that northern wobble. I love how unpredictable these things are. Hurricanes can drive even the most trained experts crazy sometimes.

A lot depends on the steering winds. A big hurricane kind of creates its own atmosphere so the motion is not as consistent as a weaker storm that is being rocketed off to the NE.

[Nathan]

Originally posted by Nick
Regardless, with the current and expected motion, Charley is going to be on land for a while and by the time it gets back to the Atlantic it will be a shell of its former self. Still a strong storm, but not a monster. Yeah, but if it does take a long time to be on land, he's going to simply flood central Florida, which I think is the worst thing that can happen right now since they're 8" above normal for rainfall up to this point.

[Nick]

Originally posted by dropthatpuck
With only an hour or so to go, what town/city is ground-zero for landfall?????

The Port Charlotte area.

[Nathan]

Originally posted by dropthatpuck
With only an hour or so to go, what town/city is ground-zero for landfall????? Probably right between Ft. Myers and Port Charlotte. I would assume the bay in Port Charlotte is getting brutal swells right now. It looks like he's then going to traverse from there directly through the greater Orlando area (Kissimmee/St. Cloud/DeLand/LBV etc) and head toward Volusia County. The problem lies with how long he takes to hit water again.

[Dutchfan]

According to a Weather Channel reporter this will be the worst hit for Florida since Andrew. It should hit Ft. Meyers area in 2 hours with 18 foot water level rise. :eek:

[dropthatpuck]

Originally posted by Nick
The Port Charlotte area.

Great, so my friends in Sarasota get spared, but this thing looks like it may track across the state and end up around Melbourne Beach where some other friends have a house on the water:rolleyes: