The official Hurricane Charlie is heading directly for my house thread!

[Bruce Ciskie]

I'll throw this out there, too.

Looking at the infrared and visible satellite pictures of Charley, he really looks like he's starting to look the part of a Category 2/3 hurricane. He's doing it just in time to hit Cuba, but he's hitting the really narrow part of Cuba, and he should have plenty of time to regenerate before making landfall somewhere in Florida.

I really hope he smashes inland south of Tampa, because everything I'm reading seems to indicate at least an even-money shot that he'll be Cat 3 by landfall.

You guys never should have let Warren Sapp go. You could have just thrown him out on a beach somewhere and told him to start yelling at it. He probably would have scared the thing back into the Gulf and saved the city from dealing with that storm surge.

[ScoobyDoo]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
You guys never should have let Warren Sapp go. You could have just thrown him out on a beach somewhere and told him to start yelling at it. He probably would have scared the thing back into the Gulf and saved the city from dealing with that storm surge.
*** :D

[Nick]

Even a hit south of the Tampa area is going to be troublesome. I spent a summer doing weather research in SW FL and any storm surge there would be tough on places like Port Charlotte, the Ft. Myers area and Marco Island. Its pretty much as flat as the Grand Forks area there. I'd love to be in a sturdy building in Key West if it passed through :)

Charley may not just be a problem for Florida. Check out the Precipitation Forecast from the GFS (Global Forecast System) model:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_060s.gif

[Bruce Ciskie]

Yup. Lotsa rain for lotsa people out east. They can have it. The meak 2.5 inches we got over about four-and-a-half days is enough for me.

You're right. I was just talking about Tampa, but so much of that coast would be vulnerable, including the areas you mentioned.

Also remember that Bonnie is going to drop some of the rain depicted in that model. It's still a lot, but not all of it will be Charley's fault.

[ScottK]

Also remember that those models can't handle the immense amount of precipitation a tropical system can produce. You can likely take those numbers and double them for areas immediately west of the track of the storms.

Nick, a friend of mine lives in Miami (though he's up here in Mass for the weekend, lucky him), and rode out Andrew in Kendall. He said it was the scariest night of his life. A Cat 3 might not be so bad to go through, but I'm not so sure I want to be down there for anything stronger than that.

[Wardy]

Folks who want to see TS Bonnie's remenents can turn on ESPN and see the pouring rain here in Baltimore tonight.

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Originally posted by Bruce Ciskie
You guys never should have let Warren Sapp go. You could have just thrown him out on a beach somewhere and told him to start yelling at it. He probably would have scared the thing back into the Gulf and saved the city from dealing with that storm surge. Yep...as good as he is, Martin St. Louis isn't quite as intimidating as Sapp...

I'd say to get out of there as soon as possible....leave the kids, they're maluble, they bounce. They'll think it's a ride. &copyLewis Black

:D

Seriously though...I hope everything turns out okay down there...:cool: :)

[Sparty Foxbat]

I went through Hurricane Fran. Not bad, just get used to trees bending over 40 degrees. And enjoy the eye, it will be an eerie silence, like a dead summer night, after all the howling and crashing, for a decent half hour before it suddenly picks up again. As long as your place stays dry and you're not affected by surge, it should be a fun experience :D

[Brenthoven]

It's not THAT the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing. (c) Ron White

:D

Seriously, hunker down. I'd rather worry about tornadoes than hurricanes.

[Markt]

Wife's grandmother is visiting us for a month. Her neighbors just called to tell her they did what they could with her brand new house, but that the whole retirement community is being evacuated. :eek:

[Nick]

Originally posted by ScottK
Also remember that those models can't handle the immense amount of precipitation a tropical system can produce. You can likely take those numbers and double them for areas immediately west of the track of the storms.

Nick, a friend of mine lives in Miami (though he's up here in Mass for the weekend, lucky him), and rode out Andrew in Kendall. He said it was the scariest night of his life. A Cat 3 might not be so bad to go through, but I'm not so sure I want to be down there for anything stronger than that.

Yeah, I spent July and August split between the Marco Is./Everglades City area and Key West. I was hoping for a hurricane, but if we had actually got one it probably would have scared the crap out of me.

You are right about the models. They just can't handle those type of rainfall amounts. Of course, the ETA just has no clue period when it comes to tropical systems.

11pm advisory is in:

973mb (if you read the discussion and not the advisory)
90kt/105mph sustained

http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0304W+GIF/130253W.gif

[Scarlet]

I'm a bit disappointed that TPTB that name these storms did not choose Clyde. How can you have Bonnie and not have that followed by Clyde? Especially since these storms are so close together.

[Rimbaud]

Originally posted by Scarlet
I'm a bit disappointed that TPTB that name these storms did not choose Clyde. How can you have Bonnie and not have that followed by Clyde? Especially since these storms are so close together.

Meteorologists aren't known for their humor.

[Nick]

Originally posted by Rimbaud
Meteorologists aren't known for their humor.

Hey now :p

Here it comes:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

[UConn4Life]

By the looks of that image, Havana is spanish for screwed.

[Wardy]

I can see TS watches/warnings go up as far north as Norfolk/VA Beach and Gale warnings go up through Manasquan, NJ in the next couple of days.

[Rimbaud]

Originally posted by UConn4Life
By the looks of that image, Havana is spanish for screwed.

Now that's humor!

[Brenthoven]

Originally posted by Rimbaud
Now that's humor!

And Ron White wasn't? :(

[Patman]

Originally posted by Rimbaud
Meteorologists aren't known for their humor.

I know, they oughta stop trying to be funny

[Rimbaud]

Originally posted by Brenthoven
And Ron White wasn't? :(

I don't know who that is, but......no.