Division I Computer Rankings: February 2, 2004

[LakersFan]

The latest computer polls are now up at the usual place:

http://vortex.bd.psu.edu/~rutter/WomensHockey/WomensDIHockeyRankings.html

Mease Top Ten:

1. Minnesota
2. Dartmouth
3. Harvard
4. Wisconsin
5. Minnesota-Duluth
6. Mercyhurst
7. St. Lawrence
8. Minnesota State
9. Princeton
10. New Hampshire

No big changes this week, just Mercyhurst and St. Lawrence swapping places again. Harvard took hit in terms of their score with the loss to Princeton.

It is interesting to note the effects of that loss iin the rankings. Nothing changes rank wise in Mease, while Harvard falls to third by themselves in RKRACH. There RPI went from .6099 to .5988, and from 4 to 6 in RPI ranking. I believe you are seeing the effects of the weaker schedule (Their opponents have the 24th highest combined win percentage, per USCHO.com RPI info). The interesting thing is that the loss to Princeton kills them in RPI, but has had little effect in Mease or KRACH ranking. Since RPI ignores how a team performs against a particular opponent in terms of an actual win vs. a loss, this result seems counter intuitive.

Of course, it is the results of other games over the weekend that contributed to Harvard's drop, but it is interesting to compare the results between the methods.

[ARM]

I see that Mercyhurst is sitting at #4 in today's PWR. (although they are tied with St. Lawrence in comparisions won) If the Lakers can run the table, with their biggest test looking like two games with Princeton, will anybody be able to edge them out? I guess they might have RPI problems down the road with St. Lawrence and Wisconsin, since those two will be playing tougher teams. Of course, the Saints and the Badgers would still need to win those games to do well in the other criteria.

[LakersFan]

I am worried about Mercyhurst winning this weekend, much less against Princeton. They play Wayne St. at WSU against their old assistant coach, Jim Fetter. These will be tough games. Earlier this year, the reuslts in Erie were 1-0 and 5-1.

Looking in to the future (based on my best guess, I could be way off).

Mercyhurst must win every game. Their league schedule hurts their RPI, so they must win out.

If St. Lawerence splits with Harvard and Dartmouth, they should jump ahead of Hurst. If they lose all four, they are out. This will kill their last 16 and record against TUC.

UMD could make it, although I would hope a team with nine (maybe more) losses would never be selected to the frozen four. They have four "easier" games (@Bemijdi, @St. Cloud), two hard games (@Minn), and two revenge games at home with Minn St. To their advantage, their last 16 games record will not include the loss to Wisconsin or Harvard, and their strength of schedule is solid. They have to win at Minnesota to make it, plus get to the finals of the WCHA tourney.

Wisconsin has games @ Minn and @ Ohio State. They must sweep Ohio State (Mercyhurst beat Ohio State), and split with Minnesota to have a chance.

So here are my fearless predictions.

If St. Lawerence splits with Harvard and Dartmouth, and make it to the semis of the ECAC, they should be in.

If Wisconsin sweeps Minnesota, and makes it to the finals of the WCHA, they are in.

If UMD wins out, and makes it to the finals of the WCHA, they are in.

If none of the above things happen, and Merychurst wins out, they are in. If Mercyhurst losses one game, who knows.

This begs the question, if St. Lawerence does well, will the NCAA take three teams from the ECAC?

[ARM]

They will take three teams from the ECAC if those are three of the best four teams (and the fourth is from the west).

Assuming UMD plays two games at the WCHA tourney, their loss to Minnesota falls out of last 16 as well. They will be stuck with the second Wisconsin loss, the OSU loss, and the Wisconsin tie. You can count the ties as a half a loss, so they essentially have ten losses at this point. I don't think it matters much if they win a semi and lose a final at the WCHA, opposed to losing a semi and winning a third place game. It might matter who they beat and who they lose to in that scenario (for H2H and COP).

It is hard at this point to come up with a scenario for who is in. A team like Minnesota could fall off the face of the earth and not make the field. I just feel that Mercyhurst has a better shot than I would have thought possible earlier. Their weak conference hurts them, but it hasn't eliminated them.

[ARM]

One thing that I just noticed, which surprised me, is that UND has a decent chance at becoming a "Team Under Consideration". If the 4-7 teams in the PWR stay as close as they are right now, being able to count two wins against UND in the TUC category might help tip the scales for someone. Teams in that group who would benefit are UMD and St. Lawrence.

For UND to get to .500, they would have to go at least 2-1-1 in their remaining games, two each against St. Cloud and Clarkson, all in Grand Forks. They beat Clarkson earlier in the year, but were swept by SCSU in October.