First round KRACH odds:
BC 0.769
Lowell 0.586
Wisconsin 0.516
Ferris 0.557
Union 0.695
Quinnipiac 0.533
Minnesota 0.933
St Cloud 0.506
These odds were created while someone was on crack I think... Union has better odds of beating UVM then Lowell does of taking out Mankato... that doesn't even pass the crack cocaine sniff test.
Originally posted by Hokydad
Maine will be better this year relative to rankings than BC will be this year
Those appear to be probabilities, not odds. The probabilities in each game add up to 1. If the probability that BC will win is 0.769, the probability that Denver will win is .231.
These odds were created while someone was on crack I think... Union has better odds of beating UVM then Lowell does of taking out Mankato... that doesn't even pass the crack cocaine sniff test.
That the probability that a one seed will be a four seed is greater than the probability that a two seed will beat a three seed is exactly what you'd expect.
But they are far from the odds a Vegas oddsmaker would develop for gambling purposes, which is why they don't pass the "sniff test".
I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "far from," beyond the fact that these are indeed probabilities, not odds. Las Vegas bookmakers simply try to get equal action on both sides and collect the vig. They do this by putting out preliminary lines (which tend to be quite similar to KRACH odds, btw) and then open very limited betting to see which way to move the lines. So the percentages here aren't exactly lines, because they haven't been adjusted for the 10 percent vig, but otherwise they ought to be fairly close to fair, with the proviso that strong bettor interest on one side or another can move the odds for reasons that have little to do with fundamentals. Roughly, speaking, the odds will simply be the win probabilities expressed as odds ratios (p/(1-p)) and then rounded for vig. For example, BC at .769 win probability becomes 1:3 odds, betting 3 to return 4.
Ok, if Vegas doesn't want to put out odds, I will:
Minn 3/1
BC 7/2
Union 7/2
Wisc 4/1
UM Lowell 5/1
Ferris St 6/1
Quinnipiac 8/1
SCSU 10/1
ND 10/1
Prov 12/1
Minn St. 12/1
Colgate 15/1
North Dakota 18/1
Vermont 20/1
Denver 25/1
Robert Morris 100/1
First round KRACH odds:
BC 0.769
Lowell 0.586
Wisconsin 0.516
Ferris 0.557
Union 0.695
Quinnipiac 0.533
Minnesota 0.933
St Cloud 0.506
I gotta laugh at these. No way MN is a 93/7 likelihood to win the game against RM. The Gophers women's team was a 90%+ likelihood to win an NC and I laughed at that one too.
Ok, if Vegas doesn't want to put out odds, I will:
Minn 3/1
BC 7/2
Union 7/2
Wisc 4/1
UM Lowell 5/1
Ferris St 6/1
Quinnipiac 8/1
SCSU 10/1
ND 10/1
Prov 12/1
Minn St. 12/1
Colgate 15/1
North Dakota 18/1
Vermont 20/1
Denver 25/1
Robert Morris 100/1
I would move Ferris down and put Colgate higher..(above Prov) and UML above Wisc but looks about right otherwise.
Unfortunately, 5mn_Major, there's no way to tell by itself if the 0.933 is right. Even if RM wins, that just means that the 7 percent chance came through. That happens... wait for it... 7 percent of the time! All the KRACh probabilities actually means is that when teams as good as Minnesota play teams as below-average as RM, the good teams wins over 9 out of ten times. What part of that seems unlikely to you?
If you're making the somewhat more sophisticated point that RM must have played better lately to get through the AHA tournament and MN must be playing worse to not even get to the Big10 final, then that's something that can be estimated. There doesn't actually seem to be a lot of momentum in college hockey, although writers love to write about it, but there is some. But if you want to make a bet on RM and are willing to take, say, 5-1, let me know and maybe we can make a deal.
Unfortunately, 5mn_Major, there's no way to tell by itself if the 0.933 is right. Even if RM wins, that just means that the 7 percent chance came through. That happens... wait for it... 7 percent of the time! All the KRACh probabilities actually means is that when teams as good as Minnesota play teams as below-average as RM, the good teams wins over 9 out of ten times. What part of that seems unlikely to you?
If you're making the somewhat more sophisticated point that RM must have played better lately to get through the AHA tournament and MN must be playing worse to not even get to the Big10 final, then that's something that can be estimated. There doesn't actually seem to be a lot of momentum in college hockey, although writers love to write about it, but there is some. But if you want to make a bet on RM and are willing to take, say, 5-1, let me know and maybe we can make a deal.
Momentum, no. But there is such a thing as playing with confidence and playing without. Playing loose and gripping your stick a bit too tight. Teams that are said to have "momentum" are usually playing with a lot of confidence, don't seem to press, and do the things that win you games (like get shots to the net and get bodies there). Teams playing without "momentum" seem to press, get away from the things that got them there, and play too tight.
I am a firm believer that confidence is one of the most important and most underrated aspects to playing good hockey. It's something that takes time to build, but can be lost in an instant.
Momentum, no. But there is such a thing as playing with confidence and playing without. Playing loose and gripping your stick a bit too tight. Teams that are said to have "momentum" are usually playing with a lot of confidence, don't seem to press, and do the things that win you games (like get shots to the net and get bodies there). Teams playing without "momentum" seem to press, get away from the things that got them there, and play too tight.
I am a firm believer that confidence is one of the most important and most underrated aspects to playing good hockey. It's something that takes time to build, but can be lost in an instant.
I agree with you... and with that, leadership. Its amazing to see how much of hockey is the last step or move you are willing to take. This is something that I know Lowell knows.
BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09
Jerseys I would like to have:
Skating Friar Jersey
AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
Army Black Knight logo jersey
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