PDA

View Full Version : The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls - 2012-2013 Edition



Pages : [1] 2 3

Transplanted Tiger Fan
09-03-2012, 10:14 AM
The grill has a very powerful smell to it after a day-long smokefest of shortribs and babybacks, I'm running low on beer, my belly is still full, and there are a few conference-specific projection threads popping-up, so it must be time to launch the annual...

The Completely Unofficial Pre-Pre-Season Polls Thread!

"What's this all about?" "What do I have to do?", you might ask. It’s simple, just rank the pre-season top-10 (yes, 10!), and you will be scored on how well you picked 'em, in a method that is (as always) completely void of any statistical merit! No prizes awarded, other than pride.

Like prior years, the scores will be tallied once the offical USCHO poll comes-out, which is typically mid-October. Then, I’ll go through the same scoring exercise mid-season and at the end of the year as well.

So here we go...
The Method to the Madness
What is required of you is simple, just post your top 10 (again - yes, 10... I am 'old school'! You can do 15 if you wish, but only the top 10 will be used for scoring purposes), and the scoring is performed as follows:


Points For Your Pick
Your pick positions are assigned a point value, called "Points for Your Pick" (PFYP).
First Place Pick - 10pts
Second Place Pick - 9pts
Third Place Pick - 8pts
...
Tenth Place Pick - 1pt

Position Points
Once the Official USCHO Pre-Season Poll is announced, "Position Points" (PP) are calculated for each of your picks based upon the Official Poll Points (OPPts) the respective team received in the Official Poll. Each of your picks that appear in the Official Pre-Season Poll will receive Position Points according to the following:

(Points For Your Pick / 10) * Official Poll Points

And these will be added together to obtain a Position Points Total (PPT).

Accuracy Factor
How well did you position your picks will also come into play, by determining an Accuracy Factory (AF). This is calculated for each of your picks by taking Your Pick Position (YPP) [1-10], and weighing it against the Official USCHO Pre-Season Poll Position (OPPos).

The value for OPPos is between 1 and the maximum number of positions in the poll. If a team in your picks fails to make the Official Poll (at any position), it is assigned a default OPPos of 33. The formula for calculating the Accuracy Factor for each of your picks is:

(1 / (1 + ABS(YPP - OPPos))) * 10

Your Total Score
Your Total Score takes into account the Sum of your Accuracy Factors (AFT), and your Total Position Points (PPT) as follows:

(AFT / 100) * PPT

"It's just that easy".

A Few "Rules" (for lack of a better term):
Ties, in either posted listings or the Official USCHO Polls, will be handled by assigning the respective positions based upon their as-listed positions in the post/Poll. The tied team listed on the "higher-side" of the post/Poll will have the higher ranking.

In the event of multiple posts (entries), the first chronological post will be used in scoring, and the subsequent post, well... ignored.

Start posting your overall DIII "top tens", and enjoy the pain that comes form those teams that under/over perform though the course of the year.

Cheers!!!


History...

<B><U>2002-2003</U>:</B>

Pre-Season Winner = Purple_and_Gold10: 315.80
Pre-Season “Boob” = NUHockeynut: 161.84

Mid-Season Winner = Bill-R-: 189.43
Mid-Season “Boob” = CrosbyNU63: 68.14

Nostradamus Award = komey1: 168.02
End-of-Season “Boob” = WillieC: 82.28


<B><U>2003-2004</U>:</B>

Pre-Season Winner = dmoody: 664.45
Pre-Season “Boob” = komey1: 356.05

Mid-Season Winner = oilers: 385.69
Mis-Season “Boob” = ECACNEPUCK: 143.11

Nostradamus Award = oilers: 251.30
End-of-Season “Boob” = ECACNEPUCK: 96.43


<B><U>2004-2005</U>:</B>

Pre-Season Winner = CROSBYNU63: 463.44
Pre-Season “Boob” = oilers: 295.89

Mid-Season Winner = PointersXRC: 317.21
Mid-Season “Boob” = komey1: 153.07

Nostradamus Award = komey1: 541.31
End-of-Season “Boob” = ECACNEPUCK: 248.11


<B><U>2005-2010</U> = “<I>The Dark Years...</I>”</B>


<B><U>2010-2011</U>:</B>

Pre-Season Winner = ThatGuy_11: 598.00
Pre-Season “Boob” = NESCAC Fan: 251.40

Mid-Season Winner = ThatGuy_11: 275.40
Mid-Season “Boob” = Pioneers#1: 162.60

Nostradamus Award = Irishdave: 543.49
End-of-Season “Boob” = NESCAC Fan: 264.49


<B><U>2011-2012</U>:</B>

Pre-Season Winner = collegehcky2: 1008.4
Pre-Season “Boob” = AldenPartidge1819: 439.2

Mid-Season Winner = LakerEagleLover: 346.8
Mid-Season “Boob” = aefwaf: 180.59

Nostradamus Award = PrezdeJohnson09: 487.69
End-of-Season “Boob” = jerrynu26: 208.74

Transplanted Tiger Fan
09-15-2012, 04:55 PM
For reference, and for what it is worth, here is the 2/20/12 poll from last year. I believe that there were a few polls published afterwards, but this one came at the end of the regular season... for most conferences:


1 Oswego 296
2 Norwich 275
3 Amherst 266
4 Plattsburgh 232
5 St. Norbert 215
6 St. Thomas 201
7 Adrian 162
8 Castleton 141
9 Elmira 127
10 Milwaukee School of Eng. 114
11 St. Scholastica 90
12 Bowdoin 84
13 Wisconsin-River Falls 50
14 Gustavus Adolphus 45
15 Utica 32

Others receiving votes: Neumann 21, Wentworth 16, Wisconsin-Eau Claire 12, Middlebury 7, Wisconsin-Stevens Point 7, Williams 4, Manhattanville 2, Plymouth State 1

And last year’s pre-season poll, published on 10/10/2011 (yeah, the <I><U>tenth</U></I>!! Caught me <U>completely</U> off-guard!):


1 St. Norbert 296
2 Oswego 266
3 Norwich 265
4 Adrian 216
5 Plattsburgh 214
6 Elmira 178
7 Castleton 154
8 Bowdoin 144
9 Wisconsin-Superior 103
10 Hamline 97
11 Neumann 86
12 Geneseo 73
13 Utica 56
14 Milwaukee School of Eng. 54
15 Curry 35

Others receiving votes: Williams 33, Gustavus Adolphus 20, Manhattanville 19, Middlebury 16, St. Thomas 9, Amherst 8, Hobart 8, Marian 7, Wisconsin-Stout 7, Fredonia 6, Wisconsin-Eau Claire 5, Hamilton 3, Salem State 2, Wentworth 2, Wisconsin-River Falls 2, Wesleyan 1

<B>“<U>The Archives</U>”:</B>
2010-2011 Season Thread (http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?91246-The-Completely-Unofficial-Pre-Pre-Season-Polls-2010-2011-Edition&highlight=)
2011-2012 Season Thread (http://board.uscho.com/showthread.php?96801-The-Completely-Unofficial-Pre-Pre-Season-Polls-2011-2012-Edition&highlight=) (<I>Winners never announced!!... listed in post 1 of this year's thread</I>)

Transplanted Tiger Fan
09-15-2012, 04:57 PM
Either I keep getting older and more confused, or sorting teams is becoming increasingly difficult each year. I believe this has got to be one of the hardest years I have had in trying to come-up with some reasonable order based upon any kind of logic, so alternate methods had to be deployed.

Since I failed miserably last year by missing my own friggin’ deadline to submit an entry (yeah, that sucked), I might as well be the first one to offer-up a top ten this year! Critique if you wish, because I cannot explain it (remember... “alternate methods”???), but if you do choose to chime-in, at least have enough 'brass' to put-up your own entry!! ;) In simple terms – put-up, or shut-up. :D

With that said... Game-on!!

1 Oswego
2 St. Norbert
3 Norwich
4 Adrian
5 Hobart
6 Plattsburgh
7 St. Thomas
8 Elmira
9 Plymouth State
10 Amherst

Cheers!!!
“TTF”

NUProf
09-15-2012, 05:20 PM
Either I keep getting older and more confused, or sorting teams is becoming increasingly difficult each year. I believe this has got to be one of the hardest years I have had in trying to come-up with some reasonable order based upon any kind of logic, so alternate methods had to be deployed.

Since I failed miserably last year by missing my own friggin’ deadline to submit an entry (yeah, that sucked), I might as well be the first one to offer-up a top ten this year! Critique if you wish, because I cannot explain it (remember... “alternate methods”???), but if you do choose to chime-in, at least have enough 'brass' to put-up your own entry!! ;) In simple terms – put-up, or shut-up. :D

With that said... Game-on!!

1 Oswego
2 St. Norbert
3 Norwich
4 Adrian
5 Hobart
6 Plattsburgh
7 St. Thomas
8 Elmira
9 Plymouth State
10 Amherst

Cheers!!!
“TTF”

Are you still using the USCHO/MCHA Fanboy poll, or the more accurate poll that resides on a different site?

Transplanted Tiger Fan
09-15-2012, 05:45 PM
Are you still using the USCHO/MCHA Fanboy poll, or the more accurate poll that resides on a different site?
For the purpose of consistency, I plan on staying with the USCHO coaches/writers poll. However, I do have the option of scoring from multiple sources. All I have to do is add a few cells/sheets into the workbook, and let it "dump-and-chug". In fact, I have been using KRACH and RPI for scientific curiosity, but in doing so I have also been toying with the formulae due to the absence of "poll points" inherent to those statistical-based ranking systems. Is it right? Hell-no! This whole exercise is wrong, but "fun" none-the-less. :D

joecct
09-15-2012, 09:01 PM
Last year's preseason poll nailed the national championship and 3/4 of the gang @ LP (well, that's not surprising, those 3 seem to be there all the time).

I see no reason for a change.

Birds
09-16-2012, 08:35 PM
Last year's preseason poll nailed the national championship and 3/4 of the gang @ LP (well, that's not surprising, those 3 seem to be there all the time).

I see no reason for a change. I don't think I always agree with that statement. So many factors determine the end result. There are injuries, chemistry with new recruits, coaching, attitudes of players etc. One can only hope that their team finds it's way through it all and has that spark that in the end,gets them there. Just thinking.....

bakdraft21
09-17-2012, 08:07 PM
St n will be #1, after that the usual suspects, would like to see a new team or 2,but not replacing my Lakers:D

NEHockeyFan07
09-18-2012, 02:03 PM
Here we go... new at this so take it easy on me!

1. St Norbert
2. Oswego
3. Norwich
4. Plattsburgh
5. Adrian
6. St Thomas
7. Elmira
8. Castleton
9. Hobart
10. Plymouth St

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh
09-18-2012, 02:19 PM
My (probably totally off the mark) opinion:

1. St. Norbert
2. Norwich
3. Oswego
4. Plattsburgh
5. Amherst
6. Adrian
7. Elmira
8. MSOE
9. St. Thomas
10. Castleton

hawk
09-18-2012, 04:09 PM
I pulled these out of a hat.

1. St. Norbert
2. Oswego
3. Plattsburgh
4. Adrien
5. St. Thomas
6. Elmira
7. Amherst
8. Norwich
9. Castleton
10. Hobart

bakdraft21
09-19-2012, 10:42 AM
didnt want to start a new pink fluffy bunny thread but I am sure the boys r skating/dryland,anybody got anything yet??

jerrynu26
09-19-2012, 02:04 PM
didnt want to start a new pink fluffy bunny thread but I am sure the boys r skating/dryland,anybody got anything yet??
Canada ahead in series, 2-0.

admiral0417
09-19-2012, 03:24 PM
This sould do it;

1. Plattsburgh
2. Adrian
3. St. Norbert
4. St. Thomas
5. Oswego
6. Elmira
7. Castleton
8. Geneseo
9. Norwich
10. MSOE

Hammer
09-19-2012, 04:20 PM
No. SNC is #1 until further notice.

NUProf
09-19-2012, 06:54 PM
Never know how the voters think going in, but here's what I think:

1 St. Norbert
2 Norwich
3 Plattsburgh
4 Oswego State
5 St. Thomas
6 Gustavus Adolphus
7 Elmira
8 Adrian
9 Castleton
10 St. Scholastica

bakdraft21
09-19-2012, 08:43 PM
This sould do it;

1. Plattsburgh
2. Adrian
3. St. Norbert
4. St. Thomas
5. Oswego
6. Elmira
7. Castleton
8. Geneseo
9. Norwich
10. MSOE I do like the looks of platties class

Transplanted Tiger Fan
09-21-2012, 12:46 PM
No. SNC is #1 until further notice.
Hammer is absolutely correct... St. Nobert is indeed going to be the #1 team in the preseason poll. However, bringing-in a post from last year’s thread:

<CR>
This reminds me... there is no clear objective in-place that dictates how your poll is to be entered. You can either do “The Prez Method” and attempt to get into the heads of the Pollsters ( ::shivers at the thought:: ), or you can try to channel the wisdom of your elders and go for the prestigious “Nostradamus Award “ ... and attempt to predict how the teams will stack-up at the end of the year. It all depends on when you want your fame (or shame) to occur. But only one entry per person, please (unless, of course, you have a split personality, errr... alias!).<CR>

My submission takes the end of the year route. I also did not have St. Norbert at the top spot, but the tea leaves and Ouija board indicated that Oswego will have a good run this year, and in the end will be the nation’s top team.

As mentioned in the message from last year’s thread above, you could attempt to accurately predict the pre-season poll, but that’s prez’s bag. Hopefully he’ll have a thread up in early October titled “Pre-Season Poll Predictions”, and we can try to predict how the Coaches and Writers rank the teams in week “-2”. Should they be ranking teams also by who they think is the best teams for the coming year too? Sure, but based on what? Nobody has played even a scrimmage in early October, so the tendency is to rank teams based on what they did last year, speculation, and name recognition. This is what makes the Pre-Season Poll so inadequate... you really have nothing to use for ranking the teams other than opinions, gut feelings, and a healthy dose of voodoo & black magic. This is also what makes winning the Nostradamus award so prestigious. :)

joecct
09-21-2012, 02:40 PM
Just for fun, we should rank the NESCAC 1-5 for the first month and a half.

Irishdave
09-21-2012, 08:58 PM
First Polls

1. St Norbert
2. Oswego
3. Norwich
4. Plattsburgh
4.. Adrian
6. St Thomas
7. Elmira
7. Hobart
9. Castleton
10. Plymouth St

Ties underlined

What is the Nostradamus Award?